Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the potential impact of tariffs on various industries in China and the U.S., emphasizing the importance of the tariff burden distribution between Chinese and American companies on profitability. It evaluates industry competitiveness and bilateral trade dependence to assess how tariffs may be shared across different sectors [1][20]. Industry Competitiveness - China's telecommunications equipment, consumer electronics, and textile products exhibit strong competitiveness, with a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) greater than 2 as of 2023. In contrast, primary products and chemicals show lower RCAs below 0.8 [2][3]. - The international market share for China's telecommunications equipment, consumer electronics, and textile products is also high, exceeding 30%, while primary and pharmaceutical products have market shares below 10% [3]. - The comprehensive competitiveness index for textiles, telecommunications equipment, electronic data processing, and apparel ranks high at 14, 14, 13, and 13 respectively, while chemicals, agriculture, food, pharmaceuticals, and mineral fuels rank lower at 4-6 [11][13]. Trade Dependence - The U.S. has a high import dependence on miscellaneous products, machinery, and intermediate raw materials from China, with import dependence rates of 26.1%, 16.0%, and 16.0% respectively for 2024, which are significantly higher than the overall dependence [14]. - China's export exposure to the U.S. in sectors like automobiles, chemicals, and non-ferrous metal products is relatively low, providing stronger bargaining power in tariff negotiations. Conversely, labor-intensive sectors have higher exposure, affecting their negotiation leverage [14][20]. Tariff Impact - Due to strong competitiveness and high U.S. import dependence, China's telecommunications equipment and consumer electronics are expected to bear less of the tariff burden, while pharmaceuticals may face a heavier burden due to weaker competitiveness and higher export exposure [20]. - Current tariff rates for industries such as leather, transportation equipment, and food are among the highest, indicating potential impacts on these sectors [20]. Political Factors - Political considerations, particularly related to national security and labor rights, are likely to influence U.S. imports from China, with expectations of reduced imports of telecommunications equipment, smart and connected vehicles, and textiles [27].