Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the potential impact of tariffs on various industries in China and the U.S., emphasizing the importance of the tariff burden distribution between Chinese and American companies on profitability. It evaluates industry competitiveness and bilateral trade dependence to assess how tariffs may be shared across different sectors [1][20]. Industry Competitiveness - China's telecommunications equipment, consumer electronics, and textile products exhibit strong competitiveness, with a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) greater than 2 as of 2023. In contrast, primary products and chemicals show lower RCAs below 0.8 [2][3]. - The international market share for China's telecommunications equipment, consumer electronics, and textile products is also high, exceeding 30%, while primary and pharmaceutical products have market shares below 10% [3]. - The comprehensive competitiveness index for textiles, telecommunications equipment, electronic data processing, and apparel ranks high at 14, 14, 13, and 13 respectively, while chemicals, agriculture, food, pharmaceuticals, and mineral fuels rank lower at 4-6 [11][13]. Trade Dependence - The U.S. has a high import dependence on miscellaneous products, machinery, and intermediate raw materials from China, with import dependence rates of 26.1%, 16.0%, and 16.0% respectively for 2024, which are significantly higher than the overall dependence [14]. - China's export exposure to the U.S. in sectors like automobiles, chemicals, and non-ferrous metal products is relatively low, providing stronger bargaining power in tariff negotiations. Conversely, labor-intensive sectors have higher exposure, affecting their negotiation leverage [14][20]. Tariff Impact - Due to strong competitiveness and high U.S. import dependence, China's telecommunications equipment and consumer electronics are expected to bear less of the tariff burden, while pharmaceuticals may face a heavier burden due to weaker competitiveness and higher export exposure [20]. - Current tariff rates for industries such as leather, transportation equipment, and food are among the highest, indicating potential impacts on these sectors [20]. Political Factors - Political considerations, particularly related to national security and labor rights, are likely to influence U.S. imports from China, with expectations of reduced imports of telecommunications equipment, smart and connected vehicles, and textiles [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of a trade war initiated by former President Trump, who has imposed significant tariffs on imports, particularly targeting China, which has led to volatility in global trade and significant impacts on various provinces in China [2][3][5][6]. Group 1: Tariff Imposition and Market Impact - On April 2, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing a minimum 10% tariff on all imports, with additional tariffs on over 60 countries, including a 34% tariff on China [5][6]. - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experiencing declines of 4.85% and 5.99%, respectively [2]. - By April 9, the tariffs on China escalated to 125%, indicating a rapidly changing trade environment [5][6]. Group 2: Export Dependency of Chinese Provinces - In 2024, China's total exports to the U.S. reached $524.7 billion, with significant contributions from provinces like Guangdong ($133.4 billion), Zhejiang ($88.8 billion), and Jiangsu ($83 billion), each holding a 16% share of their respective total exports [9][10][11]. - Zhejiang province has the highest dependency on U.S. exports at 7.0% of its GDP, followed closely by Guangdong at 6.7% [12][13]. - The article highlights that while Guangdong leads in total export volume, Zhejiang and Jiangsu have a similar share of exports to the U.S. [10][11]. Group 3: City-Level Analysis - At the city level, Shenzhen, Suzhou, and Shanghai are among the top exporters to the U.S., but cities like Jinhua and Xiamen have higher export dependency rates, indicating a need for closer monitoring [14]. - Jinhua's exports are heavily focused on light industrial goods, which are more susceptible to tariff impacts [14][26]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Impacts - The article identifies that machinery and electronics account for 40.4% of total exports to the U.S., followed by textiles and furniture, which are more vulnerable to tariff increases [22][23]. - The U.S. has targeted light industrial products for tariffs, suggesting that provinces with significant exports in these categories, like Zhejiang, will face greater challenges [24][26]. Group 5: Adaptation and Resilience - Despite the challenges posed by the trade war, provinces like Jiangsu and Zhejiang are actively implementing support policies for affected industries [15][16]. - The 137th Canton Fair, held in April 2025, reported a significant increase in international participation, indicating resilience in China's foreign trade sector [18]. Group 6: Long-term Economic Outlook - China's reliance on the U.S. market has decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, suggesting a shift towards diversifying trade partnerships [31]. - The trade war is expected to drive Chinese enterprises towards higher technological advancements and improvements in supply chain management [31].