联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 行 业 比 较 相关研究 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 06 日 涨价链和非银开门红可期 —— A 股行业中观景气跟踪月报（2025 年 12 月） 本期投资提示： 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 - 一、工业部门分行业月度跟踪：煤炭开采、黑色金属采选、医药制造等景气底部改善，关注医药制造、食 品饮料、纺服轻工、橡胶塑料、化学原料和制品等板块困境反转和供给出清机会。 ⚫ 1）量（营收、工业增加值）、价（PPI ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 2025 年 12 月制造业 PMI 环比上行 0.9 个点至 50.1 ；过去 10年 （ 2015-2024 年） 12 月环比均值为下降 0.3 个点， 12 月 PMI 环比上行显著 超季节性趋势。在前期报告《 PMI 年末超季节性反弹的可能原因》中，我们基于宏观角度做过初步分析。从中观视角进一步来看，景气面并未扩大；但高技术制 造业景气中枢进一步上移，是制造业 PMI 上行的主要带动力量。 第二， 绝对景气度看，医药、汽车、纺服、计算机通信电子景气值和分位值水平领先。我们理解一则随着 2026 年"两新"政策[2] 公布，数码和智能产品购新补 贴、汽车以旧换新和报废更新政策明朗，叠加元旦假期临近，对相关行业生产和提前备货需求构成支撑；二则" AI+ "产业趋势带动之下，计算机通信电子行业 PMI 已连续 5 个月位于 52 以上；三则部分行业出口景气，纺服行业出口订单指数回升至 60 以上，医药行业出口订单回升至 55 以上。 第三， 边际变化看，景气环比改善的行业主要包括医药、纺服、电气机械、 ...

联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 大消费行业 2026 年 1 月金股推荐 %% %% %% %% 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 11 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江大消费九大优势行业（农业、零售、社服、汽车、纺服、轻工、食品、家电、医药）2026 年 1 月重点推荐金股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈佳 李锦 赵刚 SAC：S0490513080003 SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490517020001 SFC：BQT624 SFC：BUV258 SFC：BUX176 高伊楠 于旭辉 蔡方羿 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490516060001 SFC：BUW101 SFC：BUU942 SFC：BUV463 董思远 陈亮 彭英骐 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490517070017 SAC：S0490524030005 SFC：BQK487 SFC：BUW408 ...

市场回顾 上周A股主要指数涨跌不一，量能小幅提升。 宏观数据分析 12月政治局会议和中央经济工作会议接连召开：总体延续了今年历次重要会议的基调，内需重要性有提 升，政策风格表述偏保守。 1．形势判断方面：对国内相对满意，国际局势依然是挑战（过去5年，我们有效应对各种冲击挑战，我 国经济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、制度、外交等软实力明显提升）。 2．政策基调方面：国际斗争重要性增加，统筹发展与安全反复提及。扩大内需重视程度提升，去年"实 施更加积极有为的宏观政策"提法消失（坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸 斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大 内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持 续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的 合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局）。 申万一级行业周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/12/08-2025/12/12 3．政策导向方面："逆周期与跨周期"并重，去年"超常规逆周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the importance of the medium- to long-term consumption goals outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and highlights the need for specific consumption policies to be implemented by 2026 [1] Group 1: Consumption Industry Outlook - The global consumption recovery is slow, with high tariffs pushing up prices and high interest rates suppressing credit demand, leading to weakened consumer confidence in Europe and the US [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference has proposed a focus on domestic demand, aiming to build a strong domestic market and implement actions to boost consumption, including plans to increase urban and rural residents' income [1] - The report expresses a more optimistic view on service consumption compared to goods consumption, noting recent policies that enhance the focus on service consumption and the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Retail Performance - In November, the retail sales growth rate was +1.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points, marking a continuous decrease since May [2] - The reduction in national subsidies is reflected in the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, which saw declines of -14.6% and -19.4% year-on-year in October and November, respectively [2] - Retail sales in the furniture category showed a year-on-year increase of +9.6% in October, while daily necessities experienced a growth of +7.4%, indicating a weakening trend [2] Group 3: Category-Specific Insights - The gold and jewelry category saw significant growth of +37.6% and +8.5% year-on-year in October and November, influenced by new tax policies affecting gold jewelry [3] - The clothing, footwear, and textile categories maintained stable growth rates of +6.3% and +3.5% year-on-year, supported by seasonal changes [3] - The cosmetics sector also showed improvement, with year-on-year growth rates of +9.6% and +6.1% in October and November, aided by promotional activities [3] Group 4: Global Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence in Europe and the US remains weak, with the US consumer confidence index at 53.3, close to historical lows, and the EU consumer confidence index at -13.6, indicating a relatively low level of optimism [4] - Overall retail performance in the US has been subdued, with a year-on-year increase of +3.9% in September, reflecting a decline from August [4] - Online sales during the holiday shopping week showed modest growth, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday experiencing increases of +9.3% and +7.1% year-on-year, respectively, amidst intense competition [4]

Core Viewpoint - The consumption industry needs to focus on the medium- and long-term goals outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with short-term attention on specific policies related to consumption expected to be implemented by 2026 [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - Global consumption recovery is slow, with high tariffs pushing up prices and high interest rates suppressing credit demand, leading to weak consumer confidence in Europe and the U.S. [2] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and the construction of a strong domestic market, implementing actions to boost consumption and plans to increase income for urban and rural residents [2] - The report is more optimistic about the improvement of service consumption compared to goods consumption, highlighting recent policies aimed at enhancing service consumption [2] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Retail Performance - In November, the retail sales growth rate was 1.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points, marking a continuous decrease since May [3] - The decline in retail sales for household appliances and audio-visual equipment was significant, with year-on-year drops of 14.6% and 19.4% in October and November, respectively [3] - Retail sales in the furniture category showed mixed results, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6% in October but a decline of 3.8% in November [3] Group 3: Category-Specific Insights - Jewelry retail sales saw substantial growth of 37.6% and 8.5% in October and November, influenced by new tax policies on gold jewelry [4] - The clothing and textile categories experienced stable growth, with year-on-year increases of 6.3% and 3.5% in October and November, respectively [4] - The restaurant sector's retail sales grew by 3.8% and 3.2% year-on-year in October and November, indicating stability despite slow growth [4] Group 4: Global Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence in Europe and the U.S. remains weak, with the U.S. consumer confidence index at 53.3, close to historical lows [5] - Retail performance in the U.S. was lackluster, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in adjusted retail sales for September, showing a decline from August [5] - Online sales during the holiday shopping period showed modest growth, with a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, indicating a competitive environment for promotions [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI wave will benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, leading to a differentiation and value transformation in the AI sector [1][3] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market will continue its bull run, driven by earnings and liquidity, with significant potential for both earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in large-cap growth and dividend assets [1][11] - Investment strategies focus on generating excess returns from "growth momentum + value reconstruction dividends," with optimism for AI investments, military technology, new consumption, and pharmaceuticals [1][15] Group 2 - In 2026, the U.S. is expected to experience liquidity easing, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar improving global liquidity [2][3] - The AI technology wave is viewed as a "rigid bubble" in the context of great power competition, with concerns about bubbles potentially leading to differentiation and value transformation in the AI market [2][3] - The report draws parallels between the current AI wave and the internet boom of the late 1990s, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policies will differ significantly from those in the early 2000s [3] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted as a policy driver for China's economic structure in 2026, emphasizing high-quality development and structural opportunities in the stock market [4][6] - Key areas of focus include high-level technological self-reliance, stimulating domestic demand, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [5][6] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates a weak recovery with improving inflation, which may enhance investment opportunities [6] Group 4 - The expectation of a stronger renminbi in 2026 is supported by multiple favorable factors, including the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar and the recovery of nominal economic indicators in China [7][8] - There is an anticipated trend of foreign capital returning to the Chinese stock market, driven by the renminbi appreciation and improved asset attractiveness [8][9] - The report notes that the significant wealth in Chinese households presents further potential for equity market allocation [8][10] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to maintain its bull market in 2026, benefiting from expectations of recovery in mainland China and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [11][12] - The report indicates that the market structure in 2025 suggests significant potential for earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in sectors like technology, consumption, and healthcare [11][12] - The investment strategy emphasizes patience and caution, with a focus on sectors that can attract both domestic and foreign capital [15][16]

【主力资金监控：阳光电源净卖出超17亿】智通财经12月16日电，智通财经星矿数据显示，今日主力资 金净流入商贸零售、汽车整车、纺服行业等板块，净流出电新行业、电子、机械设备等板块，其中电新 行业净流出超129亿元。个股方面，永辉超市资金净买入26.04亿元位居首位，N昂瑞-UW、恒宝股份 （维权）、北汽蓝谷主力资金净流入居前；阳光电源遭净卖出超17亿元位居首位，中际旭创、新易盛、 中国铀业主力资金净流出额居前。 转自：智通财经 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% within the next six months [28]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting actions and the development of urban and rural resident income plans, which are expected to enhance the performance and valuation recovery of the consumer sector [3][9]. - The tourism sector is anticipated to see continued growth, with leading companies like Trip.com Group and Huazhu Hotels responding quickly to consumer demand [3]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on companies that can adapt to market changes and integrate products, brands, and channels effectively [3]. - The sports and outdoor apparel sector is expected to benefit from policy support, presenting investment opportunities in leading brands with market share growth potential [3]. - The media sector should focus on niche markets related to consumer sentiment, which may provide opportunities for companies with strong performance certainty [3]. - In the food and beverage sector, leading companies are expected to maintain market share through effective brand management, particularly in high-end and mid-range liquor segments [3]. - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, continues to show strong growth potential, while dairy companies may enter a profit recovery phase [3]. Summary by Sections Social Services - The industry is evolving, with a focus on companies that actively respond to changing consumer demands, particularly in tourism and beauty sectors [3][8]. Macro Dynamics - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and the implementation of consumption-boosting actions [9]. Industry Dynamics - Disney's investment in OpenAI and its strategy to control fan engagement through authorized channels reflects a significant trend in the media industry [10]. Food and Beverage - Alcohol - The majority of liquor companies reported a deeper decline in net profits in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [3][19]. - The high-end liquor segment remains resilient, with leading brands expected to enhance their market positions [3][20]. Food and Beverage - Consumer Goods - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, continues to show strong growth potential, while dairy companies may enter a profit recovery phase [3][25]. Home Appliances - The electric two-wheeler industry faced a significant decline in production and sales in November 2025, indicating challenges in consumer demand [26].

Core Insights - The market shows a clear differentiation with a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, where most broad-based indices have retreated after reaching highs [1][12][53] - The report anticipates continued market fluctuations within a range due to insufficient strength in heavyweight indices and significant sector divergence [1][4][55] - Suggested investment strategy includes a cautious approach, focusing on sectors that are lagging yet expanding, such as brokerage firms, home appliances, and machinery equipment [1][5][56] Market Overview - Major indices experienced a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 down by 0.34%, 0.25%, and 0.08% respectively, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84% [12][53] - The technology and hard science sectors led the gains, with telecommunications rising by 5.92%, while cyclical and consumer sectors showed weakness [15][54] - Daily average trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 2.33 trillion yuan, with a rise in margin trading balances [22][29] Sector Analysis - The report highlights that 9 out of 30 major sectors increased, while 21 decreased, indicating a strong performance in technology and hard science sectors, contrasted by declines in cyclical and consumer sectors [15][54] - Notable sector performances include military, electronics, and machinery, which saw increases of 3.57%, 2.51%, and 1.33% respectively, while coal, oil, and real estate sectors faced declines [15][54] Investment Strategy - The report advises a "wait and see" approach, recommending investors avoid chasing prices and instead set targets based on historical lows of various indices [5][56] - Specific sectors to watch include brokerage firms, which are lagging but expanding, home appliances with a strong historical performance in December, and machinery equipment benefiting from recent positive news [1][5][56] - Individual stocks in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and AI application sectors that are relatively low in price should be monitored, along with those that are lagging above the annual line [5][56]