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罗志恒:当前地方政府债务化解的成效、问题与对策建议
和讯· 2025-05-03 10:00
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of addressing debt issues in China, particularly focusing on the intertwined challenges of real estate and local government debt, which significantly impact economic investment and consumption [2][3]. Group 1: Debt Resolution Effectiveness - The visibility of hidden debts has increased, with several trillion yuan of hidden debt becoming explicit, leading to a reduction of approximately 25% in hidden debt scale [5][6]. - The number of financing platforms has decreased, with nearly 7,000 platforms expected to exit by 2024 [7]. - Interest payments on debts have significantly decreased following the visibility of hidden debts, and the structure of debt terms and types has improved [8][9]. Group 2: Further Debt Resolution Considerations - The "6+4+2" debt resolution policy has effectively motivated local governments, but short-term risks must be closely monitored, especially given the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market and insufficient overall demand [10][11]. - The speed of financing platform exits is accelerating, but there is a need to balance formal and substantive transformations to enhance revenue-generating capabilities [11]. - The issue of overdue payments has seen some progress, but systemic solutions are still required [12]. - Short-term debt resolution efforts have yielded significant results, yet the root causes of hidden debt still need comprehensive reform [13][14]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Short-term recommendations include optimizing debt resolution policies by allocating debt limits in a lump sum to local governments, allowing them to address debt risks more effectively [16][17]. - It is suggested to increase debt limits for eastern regions and relax debt ratio restrictions to support effective investments, especially in light of trade challenges [18]. - Establishing a systematic mechanism for clearing overdue payments at the provincial level is recommended to address outstanding debts [18]. - Long-term recommendations involve establishing a debt budget and capital budget to regulate debt usage and improve resource allocation [19]. - Reforming the fiscal system to shift responsibilities and powers to the central government is crucial for alleviating local government burdens [19]. - Promoting debt to support economic development and ensuring proper matching of financing types is essential for effective investment [20].