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2025年地方化债债券3.6万亿元,2026年如何有序化债?
21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 2025年地方债发行全面收官,项目建设、化债是重要的资金用 途。 据企业预警通数据显示,2025年地方政府共发行10.29万亿元地方政府债券,其中新增债券5.36万亿元, 再融资债券4.93万亿元。2025年的新增地方债券中,一般债券发行了7701亿元、专项债券发行了4.59万 亿元。 21世纪经济报道记者梳理发现,若将新增一般债券、刨除用于化债的新增专项债加总,得到用于项目建 设的地方债券资金,总计规模在4.08万亿元;若将置换存量隐性债务的再融资专项债券、用于偿还存量 债务的再融资债券、用于化债的新增专项债加总,得到用于化债的地方债券资金,总计规模在3.59万亿 元。 中央经济工作会议明确指出,2026年要加紧清理拖欠企业账款。积极有序化解地方政府债务风险,督促 各地主动化债,不得违规新增隐性债务。 据企业预警通,2025年地方用于项目建设的地方债券资金规模约4.08万亿元。具体来看,2025年地方发 行新增专项债规模为4.59万亿元,其中有1.28万亿元用于化债,剩余约3.31万元用于广义的项目建设。 另外,2025年地方还发行了7701亿元新增一般债券,主要用于地 ...
地方政府债与城投行业监测周报2025年第46期:中央强调化解融资平台经营性债务风险,吉林官宣已达到“退平台”标准-20251222
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-12-22 08:30
1. Core Views - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized addressing local fiscal difficulties, with a focus on the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level. It was proposed to maintain a deficit rate above 4% in 2026, with a general fiscal expenditure scale of about 15 trillion yuan. The management of local government special bonds was optimized, and the operational debts of financing platforms became the focus of debt resolution [6][9][11]. - Jilin Province announced that it had reached the standard to exit the list of key provinces for local debt. Liaoning Province aimed to build a closed - loop debt management system to promote effective debt resolution [15][16]. - This week, 8 urban investment companies declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities or exited the financing platform list. 25 urban investment companies prepaid bond principal and interest, and 1 urban investment bond was cancelled for issuance [18][22][23]. 2. News Comment Central Economic Work Conference - First, it was the first time to mention "addressing local fiscal difficulties" and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level. The contradiction between revenue reduction and expenditure increase was prominent, especially at the grass - roots level. It was necessary to increase transfer payments from the central government, optimize the transfer payment structure, and enhance local independent financial resources [9]. - Second, the positive fiscal policy was continued, with a focus on both total force and structural optimization. It was recommended that the deficit rate in 2026 be maintained above 4%, the general fiscal expenditure scale be about 15 trillion yuan, and the total scale of new government debt be increased to 14.8 - 15.5 trillion yuan. The structure of fiscal expenditure should be optimized [10][11]. - Third, the management of the use of local government special bonds was optimized, and the efficiency and quality of the "negative list" management were improved. Attention should be paid to the quality and comprehensive benefits of investment [12]. - Fourth, the operational debts of financing platforms became the focus of debt resolution. It was necessary to classify and handle debts, optimize debt restructuring and replacement methods, and establish a risk - sharing mechanism [13][14]. Jilin and Liaoning's Debt Management - Jilin Province announced reaching the standard to exit the list of key provinces for local debt, aiming to build a long - term government debt management mechanism and promote state - owned enterprise reform [15]. - Liaoning Province aimed to build a closed - loop debt management system, accelerate the resolution of implicit debts and the reform and transformation of financing platforms, and strictly prevent the increase of implicit debts [16]. Urban Investment Companies' "Exit from Platform" - This week, 8 urban investment companies declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities or exited the financing platform list. Since October 2023, a total of 963 companies have made such declarations, mainly in eastern provinces, with AA + as the main credit rating [18]. Prepayment and Cancellation of Urban Investment Bonds - 25 urban investment companies prepaid bond principal and interest this week, involving 26 bonds with a total scale of 31.57 billion yuan. One urban investment bond, "25 Chuanfa MTN003 (Hybrid Science and Technology Innovation Bond)", was cancelled for issuance, with a planned issuance scale of 1 billion yuan [22][23]. 3. Bond Issuance Local Government Bonds - This week, the issuance and net financing scale of local government bonds increased. The special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts in 2025 have been fully issued. As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new bonds reached 5296.432 billion yuan, completing 101.85% of the annual quota. The weighted average issuance term was 12.52 years, and the weighted average issuance rate was 2.08% [24][25][26]. Urban Investment Bonds - This week, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds decreased, while the net financing scale increased. The issuance rate and spread both increased. The overall issuance rate was 2.28%, and the issuance spread was 77.64BP. The issuance was mainly private placement bonds, with a 5 - year term as the main one, and the issuer's main credit rating was AA + [35]. 4. Bond Trading Fund Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 668.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 4.7 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates mostly increased [39]. Bond Trading - The trading scale of local government bonds decreased by 2.40% to 496.486 billion yuan, and the trading scale of urban investment bonds increased by 16.79% to 316.22 billion yuan. The credit spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds narrowed [41]. Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds - This week, 12 urban investment entities had 12 abnormal bond transactions. The number of entities, bonds, and abnormal transactions increased compared with last week [41]. 5. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Companies - This week, 76 urban investment companies announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, and cumulative new borrowings [44].
融资平台经营性债务风险如何化解?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-17 13:25
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central government has shifted from "overall resolution and risk prevention" to more proactive "active debt resolution", strictly controlling the source of risks and emphasizing the optimization of debt restructuring and replacement methods. It has also clearly distinguished "operating debts of financing platforms" and included the risk of such debts in the key resolution scope [7][19]. - The resolution of local government implicit debts has advanced steadily, with the risk being continuously mitigated. However, the market has begun to focus on the operating debt risks of financing platforms, especially the disposal methods for such debts after 2028 [2][7]. - There are three possible paths for resolving the operating debts of financing platforms in the future: fiscal replacement after re - identification, financial debt resolution, and market - based disposal [7][31]. - The large - scale fiscal management reform in Hubei Province provides an important reference for local debt resolution and the market - oriented transformation of urban investment platforms [7][36]. - The disposal methods for the operating debt risks of financing platforms after 2028 are uncertain. If fiscal replacement is used again, a new round of inventory and statistics of local government off - balance - sheet debts may start from 2026 - 2027. If market - based resolution is adopted, attention should be paid to the creditworthiness of state - owned enterprises, especially the valuation risks of urban investment entities in relatively weak regions and with weak credit qualifications [7][36]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Implicit Debts Significantly Resolved, but Operating Debts of Financing Platforms Grow Significantly - The resolution of local government implicit debts has advanced steadily. Since 2024, a total of 10 trillion yuan of debt replacement resources have been arranged, and the implicit debt that local governments need to digest before 2028 has decreased from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan [12]. - The scale and proportion of debt - resolution funds have increased significantly. Policy support has effectively matched the needs of local debt resolution, and most implicit debts are expected to be resolved by 2028 [14]. - Since 2018, the interest - bearing debts of urban investment entities have continued to expand. As of November 2025, they have reached about 78.8 trillion yuan, and it is estimated that they will reach nearly 83.5 trillion yuan by 2028. The stock of urban investment bonds has remained stable but decreased slightly, while the bonds of "pan - urban investment" entities have increased [19]. 2. New Ideas for Debt Resolution in the Central Economic Work Conference - By comparing the statements of the Central Economic Work Conferences from 2023 to 2025 on local government debt risks, it can be seen that the policy goals have evolved from "prevention and resolution" to "resolution", from "overall resolution" to "active and orderly resolution", and from "holding the bottom line" to "urging active debt resolution", reflecting a more proactive and targeted policy orientation [27][30]. 3. After 2028, for the Operating Debts of Financing Platforms: Restructuring or Replacement? - The central government's debt - resolution measures are becoming more market - oriented and professional. There are three possible paths for resolving the operating debts of financing platforms: fiscal replacement after re - identification, financial debt resolution, and market - based disposal [31]. - The large - scale fiscal reform in Hubei Province provides a sample for local debt resolution. By introducing social capital through asset securitization, it effectively alleviates the current debt - repayment pressure of local governments and enhances fiscal sustainability [36].
信用债周策略20251216:怎么看经济工作会议对地方经济的指导
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of adhering to a stable yet progressive economic strategy, focusing on quality and efficiency, while implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1][13][19] - The report highlights the significance of "performance view" and "local adaptation" as focal points of the recent economic work conference, indicating that local governments should avoid blind pursuit of trends and instead develop industries based on regional characteristics and advantages [2][12][17] - The report suggests a short-duration investment strategy for local governments that effectively address hidden debts, particularly those that can resolve these issues promptly and are expected to issue special bonds for project construction [3][27][37] Group 2 - The report outlines key tasks for local governments in 2026, including maintaining domestic demand as the primary driver, enhancing infrastructure investment, and optimizing the use of special bonds and new policy financial tools to stimulate private investment [19][25][26] - It discusses the need for a unified national market construction regulation to address "involution" competition and promote fair competition among local governments and enterprises, which is expected to be implemented in 2026 [9][24][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing local government debt risks through proactive measures, including debt restructuring and optimizing financing platforms, to ensure sustainable economic development [27][29][30]
林武在潍坊调研时强调 更好统筹发展和安全 推动经济社会平稳健康发展
Da Zhong Ri Bao· 2025-12-16 01:21
调研中,林武听取了潍坊市投资集团改革发展情况介绍。随后,林武主持召开会议,听取各市和省 直有关部门汇报,研究部署经济发展、债务化解和平台公司改革转型等工作。他强调,要坚决落实习近 平总书记重要指示要求和党中央决策部署,坚持守牢底线,积极有序化解地方政府债务风险,严控债务 总量,优化债务结构,切实抓好融资平台和城投公司改革转型,不得违规新增隐性债务,守牢不发生系 统性风险的底线。要压紧压实工作责任,树立和践行正确政绩观,抓住用好政策,加强督导检查,严明 纪律要求,强化责任追究。要坚持稳中求进、提质增效,狠抓经济运行调度、工业经济"头号工程"、项 目建设、消费挖潜等,持续扩大内需、优化供给,做优增量、盘活存量。要做好岁末年初重要民生商品 保供工作,关心困难群众生产生活,坚决防范遏制重特大事故发生。 省委常委刘强、曾赞荣、张海波、江成,各市和省直有关部门主要负责同志参加相关活动。(记者 李子路 于新悦) 12月15日,省委书记林武在潍坊市调研时强调,要深入学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神,认真落实 习近平总书记视察山东重要讲话和重要指示批示精神,锚定"走在前、挑大梁",加快产业优化升级和重 点项目建设,更好统筹发展和安 ...
8个“新”字,看2026年经济工作怎么干 | 极刻
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-12 13:08
【大河财立方 记者 段伟朵 陈诗昂 朱娟 张克瑶】12月10日至11日,中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会 议指出,"我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变""明年经济工作在政策取向上,要坚持稳 中求进、提质增效",释放出我国着力推动经济高质量发展的强烈信号。 大河财立方记者梳理了解到,"新"字是今年中央经济工作会议的高频词。聚焦"新的认识""新挑战""两 新""国际科技创新中心""房地产发展新模式"等8个"新"字,看2026年经济工作怎么干。 关键词:经济形势 "我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识和体会" 关于当前经济形势,会议作何分析? 大河财立方记者注意到,本次会议首次提出,"通过实践,我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认 识和体会"。 当前,我国经济发展趋势如何?还面临哪些问题和挑战? 会议指出,我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少,外部环境变化影响加深,国内供强需弱矛盾突 出,重点领域风险隐患较多。这些大多是发展中、转型中的问题,经过努力是可以解决的,我国经济长 期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变。 李迅雷认为,中国经济已步入存量经济主导的时代。一方面,我国经济体量大,"中国已成大象,不可 ...
中央经济工作会议的新与变
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-12 09:15
基本内容 中央经济工作会议通稿在总基调和核心内容上与本周初的政治局会议基本一致,但篇幅更长、增量信息更多;同时, 对比去年和今年的会议通稿,我们又可以看到诸多变化。 风险提示 1)经济目标、赤字率、特别国债、专项债等数字安排需要到明年两会期间发布,当前评估尚存在不确定性;2)外部 环境仍然复杂多变,可能给国内经济工作重心和政策节奏带来扰动。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 中央经济工作会议通稿在总基调和核心内容上与本周初的政治局会议基本一致,但篇幅更长、增量信息更多;同时, 对比去年和今年的会议通稿,我们又可以看到诸多变化。 对形势评估更有信心。相比于往年,今年会议对于外部环境使用了"影响加深"这一相对中性的表述,去年会议则描 述为"不利影响加深"。今年对于内部问题指出"大多是发展中、转型中的问题,经过努力是可以解决的",这一变化 呼应了今年中国在外交、经济、市场等方面的表现,也对应了防风险工作的顺位从去年的第五位降到今年的第八位。 财政政策更有定力。会议对财政政策"更加积极"的定调与去年一致,但细节更显定力。例如,指出"保持必要的" 财政赤字、债务规模和支出总量,去年则直接提出要"提高财政赤 ...
中央对地方化债有新部署
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-12 09:08
中央首提化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险 化解地方债务风险有了新部署。 近日中央经济工作会议在北京举行,会议部署2026年经济工作。其中,就明年积极稳妥化解重点领域风 险时要求,积极有序化解地方政府债务风险,督促各地主动化债,不得违规新增隐性债务。优化债务重 组和置换办法,多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险。 自去年中央推出五年总额10万亿元一揽子化解地方政府隐性债务政策后,大量政府隐性债务转化为显性 债务,融资成本明显下降,偿债周期拉长,地方债务风险大幅缓释。而随着化债政策落地,隐性债务举 借主体地方政府融资平台加快剥离政府融资职能,两年半时间里超过七成融资平台公司退出"融资平台 公司名单"。 在这一背景之下,中央对地方化债的部署有何变化? 长期关注地方债的财达证券常务副总经理胡恒松告诉第一财经,中央延续了此前"化解存量隐性债务, 遏制新增隐性债务"表述,凸显了中央对地方政府隐性债务管控的持续重视,同时首次提及化解地方融 资平台经营性债务风险。目前地方政府融资平台公司经营性债务规模较大,存量规模甚至超过隐性债 务,从宏观风险防控角度来看,经营性债务是更需要重点关注的债务风险点,后续或将出台相应的支 ...
化债有了新表述!中央经济工作会议:督促各地主动化债,多措并举化解融资平台经营性债务风险
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-12-12 06:38
华夏时报记者李明会北京报道 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议在部署明年的重点工作时提到,坚持守牢底线,积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。 其中包括,积极有序化解地方政府债务风险,督促各地主动化债,不得违规新增隐性债务。优化债务重组和置换办法,多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经 营性债务风险。 《华夏时报》记者注意到,这也是中央经济工作会议首次提到"督促各地主动化债",同时特别指出要"优化债务重组和置换办法,多措并举化解地方政府 融资平台经营性债务风险"。 对此,中央财经大学教授温来成在接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示,近两年实施的一揽子化债方案成效显著,一定程度上缓解了地方政府债务的风险, 但要在2028年底前确保隐性债务"清零",根本性解决投融资平台债务问题,目前来看还存在一定压力。因此,在12万亿元化债方案之外,还需要地方政府 加大债务治理力度、主动化债,推动融资平台能够在2028年以前较早地实现转型发展与债务清零,助力地方经济迈入高质量发展新阶段。 伴随政策工具持续发力,我国地方政府隐性债务规模大幅压降。截至2024年末,全国地方政府隐性债务规模由14.3万亿元降至10.5万亿元,压降3.8万亿 ...
上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚:将政府性债务与经营性债务分类处理 为融资平台转型留出空间
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 14:05
他提到,平台债务分类施策。这是首次明确提出"多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险",释 放重要信号:将政府性债务与经营性债务分类处理,为融资平台转型留出空间。 来源:上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯(记者 韩宋辉)中央经济工作会议指出,积极有序化解地方政府债务风险,督促 各地主动化债,不得违规新增隐性债务。优化债务重组和置换办法,多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经 营性债务风险。 上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚对上证报记者表示,防风险仍是底线。"积极有序"和"不得 违规新增"的表述,表明在化债与稳增长间寻求平衡,既要消化存量风险,更要严控增量,彰显政策定 力。 他认为,化债进入深水区。从"督促主动化债"到"优化债务重组和置换办法",政策工具箱正在扩容。这 意味着单纯的展期、借新还旧已不够,需要更市场化、更彻底的解决方案。 上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚对上证报记者表示,防风险仍是底线。"积极有序"和"不得 违规新增"的表述,表明在化债与稳增长间寻求平衡,既要消化存量风险,更要严控增量,彰显政策定 力。 他认为,化债进入深水区。从"督促主动化债"到"优化债务重组和置换办法",政策工具 ...