作者简介 李稻葵，清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院院长，教授。 编者按：中国经济前景光明，信心在哪里？底气在哪里？活力在哪里？《解码中国经济——12位经济学 家的思享课》一书由《中国经济周刊》编写，特邀黄奇帆、刘世锦、李稻葵等12位著名经济学家，深入 解读中国经济未来走势。李稻葵认为，目前，我国的消费不足及"内卷式"竞争等问题亟待破解，看到问 题的同时还要看到我们的优势，我国有着潜在需求巨大、潜在供给巨大和经济发展潜力巨大这三个优 势，随着一系列政策的推出，2025年有望迎来一个转折年、逆转年。以下内容为书籍节选，内容有删 减。 我国有着潜在需求巨大、潜在供给巨大和经济发展潜力巨大这三个优势。 巨大的潜在需求 潜在需求巨大来自两大块，分别是长期的城镇化以及中等收入群体的增长。 国家统计局数据显示，2024年末，我国城镇常住人口为9.44亿人，比2023年末增加1083万人；乡村常住 人口为4.65亿人，减少1222万人。常住人口城镇化率为67.00%，比2023年末提高0.84个百分点。随着城 市发展方式转变和城市群的发展，我国人口城镇化率稳步提高。 但是，根据我们的研究，还有大量人群虽然工作、生活在城市，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully passed a resolution for debt restructuring of certain receivables, which is expected to positively impact its profit for the year 2025 [6][15][20]. Group 1: Board Meeting Details - The fifth board meeting of Xinjiang Xiling Information Technology Co., Ltd. was held on August 1, 2025, in Shanghai, with all 7 directors present [4][5]. - The meeting was convened in accordance with relevant laws and regulations [5]. Group 2: Debt Restructuring Proposal - The board approved a proposal for debt restructuring concerning receivables from a local public security bureau, with a total expected recovery of 103.5 million yuan [15][18]. - The restructuring aims to accelerate cash flow recovery and reduce receivables risk, thereby strengthening long-term customer relationships [19][20]. Group 3: Monitoring Committee's Opinion - The supervisory board also approved the debt restructuring, stating it would facilitate quicker recovery of receivables and enhance cash flow [11][20]. - The supervisory board confirmed that the restructuring does not harm the interests of the company or its shareholders [11][20]. Group 4: Background and Context - The debt restructuring is part of a broader national policy aimed at addressing local government debt issues and ensuring financial stability [15][18]. - The specific projects involved in the restructuring relate to contracts totaling 320.43 million yuan, with 160.93 million yuan already recovered [15][18].

Group 1 - The core issue in Guangxi, particularly in Liuzhou, revolves around debt resolution and economic development, with significant attention from the regional government [2][5] - Liuzhou has successfully completed a phase of debt resolution, achieving a "zero" status for non-standard debt by the end of June, and has maintained a stable financial environment for over four years [2][5] - The local government aims to resolve over 100 billion yuan in debt principal and interest in 2024, while reducing interest expenses by 1.6 billion yuan [2][5] Group 2 - Liuzhou's public budget revenue for 2024 is projected at 14.9 billion yuan, with a local government debt balance of 104.3 billion yuan, resulting in a wide debt ratio of approximately 490% [5][21] - The urgency of debt resolution is underscored by the national goal to reduce local government hidden debt from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028, requiring an annual reduction of 460 billion yuan [6][19] - The overall local government debt, including hidden debts, is a significant concern, with the total government debt reaching approximately 70.77 trillion yuan by the end of 2023 [7][8] Group 3 - The current debt resolution strategy primarily involves debt replacement, converting high-interest, short-term debts into lower-interest, long-term obligations [16][19] - Challenges in debt resolution include the ongoing pressure of interest payments on existing debts, which remain high despite lower new financing rates [16][17] - The economic structure of Liuzhou is fragile, with a GDP growth rate of only 1.5% in 2024, indicating a need for structural adjustments to ensure sustainable economic development [21][22] Group 4 - The local government is focusing on high-quality development as a long-term solution to the debt crisis, rather than merely reducing debt levels [22][23] - The new leadership emphasizes the importance of industrial revitalization and sustainable economic practices to overcome the current financial challenges [23]

Group 1 - Liuzhou has attracted significant attention due to its debt crisis and economic challenges, prompting a high-level meeting in Guangxi to address these issues [2][3][4] - The total government debt of Liuzhou is reported at 104.27 billion yuan, with general debt at 27.10 billion yuan and special debt at 77.17 billion yuan, indicating a serious financial situation despite being within the debt limit [4][5][6] - Liuzhou's GDP has been stagnant, with a nominal decrease of 1.62 billion yuan year-on-year, and it is projected to fall below 300 billion yuan for the first time in seven years [7][11][12] Group 2 - The industrial sector, particularly automotive and steel, has entered a downturn, significantly impacting Liuzhou's economic performance [16][22][30] - Liuzhou's industrial output has declined, with total industrial output dropping by nearly 100 billion yuan from 2017 to 2020, highlighting the need for transformation and upgrading [23][27] - The local government is focusing on revitalizing the industrial base by promoting new energy vehicles and enhancing traditional industries [28][29] Group 3 - The "Strong Capital" strategy in Guangxi has raised questions about its effectiveness, as Nanning's economic dominance has not improved as expected [39][45] - There are indications that the "Strong Capital" strategy may be cooling down, with a shift towards a more balanced approach that supports both Nanning and Liuzhou [48][50] - The need for a collaborative strategy that leverages the strengths of various cities, including Liuzhou and Guilin, is emphasized for the overall development of Guangxi [49][50]

Group 1 - The issuance of refinancing special bonds by local governments has reached nearly 2 trillion yuan, with several provinces completing their annual issuance tasks ahead of schedule [1][3] - Experts believe that the early issuance of refinancing special bonds highlights a clear direction of proactive fiscal policy, providing more fiscal space for local economic stability [2][6] - As of June 11, the total issuance of refinancing special bonds by local governments has reached 19,281.24 billion yuan, with additional plans from Shandong, Yunnan, and Beijing bringing the total to 20,300 billion yuan [3][7] Group 2 - Jiangsu Province leads in issuance with 2,781.42 billion yuan, followed by Shandong, Beijing, Yunnan, and others, all exceeding 1,000 billion yuan [4][5] - The majority of the refinancing special bonds issued this year are long-term, with 73.21% of the 224 bonds having a maturity of at least 10 years [6] - The interest rates for refinancing special bonds are generally low, with 30-year bonds ranging from 1.90% to 2.35% [6] Group 3 - The National People's Congress has approved an increase of 60,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits to replace hidden debts, with 20,000 billion yuan allocated annually from 2024 to 2026 [7][8] - The government work report emphasizes the need to balance debt resolution with development quality and fiscal sustainability [8] - The shift in local debt management from risk prevention to a dual focus on risk prevention and development promotion is noted as a significant change in strategy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of refinancing special bonds has reached nearly 2 trillion yuan, indicating a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing local economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance Scale - As of June 11, the total scale of issued and pending refinancing special bonds has reached 20.3 trillion yuan, with local governments having issued 19.281 trillion yuan [3][8]. - Major provinces such as Jiangsu, Shandong, and Beijing have significant issuance scales, with Jiangsu leading at 278.142 billion yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Purpose and Impact - The refinancing special bonds are primarily aimed at replacing existing hidden debts, thereby freeing up fiscal space for local governments to stimulate economic growth [3][6]. - The issuance of long-term bonds is prevalent, with 73.21% of the bonds having a maturity of no less than 10 years [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The issuance of refinancing special bonds is expected to be completed this year, with the total issuance limit of 2 trillion yuan for replacing hidden debts nearly exhausted [7][8]. - The government's approach to managing local government debt is shifting towards balancing development quality and fiscal sustainability, indicating a more nuanced strategy in the future [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of refinancing special bonds has reached nearly 2 trillion yuan, indicating a proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing local economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance Scale - As of June 11, the total scale of issued and pending refinancing special bonds has reached 20,281.24 billion yuan, with recent plans from Shandong, Yunnan, and Beijing expected to increase this to 20,300 billion yuan [3][8]. - Jiangsu Province leads with an issuance scale of 2,781.42 billion yuan, followed by Shandong, Beijing, and Yunnan, all exceeding 1,000 billion yuan [4][5]. Group 2: Bond Characteristics - The majority of the refinancing special bonds issued this year are long-term, with 73.21% of the 224 bonds having a maturity of at least 10 years [6]. - The interest rates for these bonds are relatively low, with 30-year bonds ranging from 1.90% to 2.35% and 10-year bonds from 1.63% to 2.15% [6]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The issuance of refinancing special bonds is part of a broader strategy to alleviate local government debt risks while promoting economic growth, reflecting a shift from merely preventing risks to balancing risk prevention and development [8][9]. - The National People's Congress has approved an increase of 60,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits to support the replacement of hidden debts over three years [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of addressing debt issues in China, particularly focusing on the intertwined challenges of real estate and local government debt, which significantly impact economic investment and consumption [2][3]. Group 1: Debt Resolution Effectiveness - The visibility of hidden debts has increased, with several trillion yuan of hidden debt becoming explicit, leading to a reduction of approximately 25% in hidden debt scale [5][6]. - The number of financing platforms has decreased, with nearly 7,000 platforms expected to exit by 2024 [7]. - Interest payments on debts have significantly decreased following the visibility of hidden debts, and the structure of debt terms and types has improved [8][9]. Group 2: Further Debt Resolution Considerations - The "6+4+2" debt resolution policy has effectively motivated local governments, but short-term risks must be closely monitored, especially given the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market and insufficient overall demand [10][11]. - The speed of financing platform exits is accelerating, but there is a need to balance formal and substantive transformations to enhance revenue-generating capabilities [11]. - The issue of overdue payments has seen some progress, but systemic solutions are still required [12]. - Short-term debt resolution efforts have yielded significant results, yet the root causes of hidden debt still need comprehensive reform [13][14]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Short-term recommendations include optimizing debt resolution policies by allocating debt limits in a lump sum to local governments, allowing them to address debt risks more effectively [16][17]. - It is suggested to increase debt limits for eastern regions and relax debt ratio restrictions to support effective investments, especially in light of trade challenges [18]. - Establishing a systematic mechanism for clearing overdue payments at the provincial level is recommended to address outstanding debts [18]. - Long-term recommendations involve establishing a debt budget and capital budget to regulate debt usage and improve resource allocation [19]. - Reforming the fiscal system to shift responsibilities and powers to the central government is crucial for alleviating local government burdens [19]. - Promoting debt to support economic development and ensuring proper matching of financing types is essential for effective investment [20].