关税打折换投资

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莫迪喊价:中国关税减两成!印度制造十年跌4%,越南笑了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-13 14:00
Core Viewpoint - Modi's strategy of offering lower tariffs to attract foreign investment is criticized as a superficial approach that undermines India's economic sovereignty and fails to address deeper structural issues in the manufacturing sector [1][12]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Challenges - Modi's "Make in India" initiative aimed to increase manufacturing's GDP share to 25%, but it has declined from 18.3% to 14.7% over the past decade, indicating a failure in achieving manufacturing growth [3][4]. - India is losing its competitive edge in manufacturing to countries like Vietnam, which has a higher manufacturing GDP share despite India's larger market size [3][4]. - Foreign investments face significant bureaucratic hurdles, exemplified by Foxconn's experience with a 14-month approval process for a semiconductor plant, leading to withdrawal of investment [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Environment and Investment Climate - The Indian government imposes high taxes and complex regulations, deterring foreign companies from investing, as seen with Ford and General Motors exiting the market after substantial losses [6][7]. - The reliance on Chinese imports for essential components, such as 70% of mobile phone parts, exposes India's manufacturing sector to vulnerabilities in the supply chain [7][8]. - Infrastructure issues, including frequent power outages and slow customs clearance, further complicate the investment landscape, increasing operational costs for businesses [7][8]. Group 3: Tariff Strategy and Its Implications - Modi's proposal to lower tariffs by 10-20% below China's rates is seen as an inadequate solution to attract foreign investment, as it does not address the underlying issues of India's manufacturing capabilities [6][9]. - The current "assembly economy" model, heavily reliant on imported components, lacks competitiveness and sustainability, raising concerns about the long-term viability of this approach [6][7]. - The strategy of offering tariff discounts may lead to short-term gains but risks long-term economic dependency on Western capital, which can withdraw support at any time [8][9]. Group 4: Structural Issues in Economic Development - India's economic model is criticized for its lack of focus on building a robust manufacturing base, with frequent policy changes creating uncertainty for businesses [10][11]. - The workforce quality is a significant concern, with a high illiteracy rate and a lack of skilled labor, hindering the development of a competitive manufacturing sector [11][12]. - The comparison with China's successful industrial policies highlights India's need for a more stable and coherent approach to economic development, rather than relying on superficial tariff negotiations [10][12].