关税政治
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特朗普加码关税威胁 美企与消费者承压
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-16 23:03
Core Points - The new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are aimed at protecting U.S. manufacturing and national security, but they may lead to increased housing costs and delayed home improvement plans for consumers [1][2] - The National Association of Home Builders has warned that the new tariffs will further hinder an already sluggish real estate market, raising construction and renovation costs [1][4] - The potential for broader tariff actions, including a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, is being considered, which could exacerbate the situation [1] Economic Impact - A report from the Tax Foundation indicates that by 2026, U.S. market revenue will decrease by 1.4% due to tariffs, with average household tax expenses rising to approximately $1,300 in 2025 and $1,600 in 2026 [4] - The Boston Fed estimates that the new tariffs could push core inflation in the U.S. up by about 75 basis points, despite some officials downplaying the impact [4] - The ongoing tariff policies are seen as detrimental to the U.S. economy, contributing to social division and rising inflation [4][5] Consumer Effects - Research from Harvard University shows that since the implementation of new tariffs, the average price of imported goods in the U.S. has increased by 4%, while domestic product prices have risen by 2% [2] - Most of the tariff costs are being borne by U.S. businesses, which are gradually passing the pressure onto consumers [2] Strategic Context - The tariff strategy reflects a broader geopolitical struggle and a rebalancing of the global economic order, with China maintaining strategic resilience in response to U.S. pressures [5] - The U.S. public is becoming increasingly aware of the challenges in using tariffs to bring manufacturing back and create jobs, as these measures have instead raised living costs and exacerbated social divides [4][5]
深观察丨“美国在为自身的孤立和边缘化埋下种子”
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-08-06 01:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions between the United States and India regarding India's purchase of Russian oil, with President Trump threatening to impose higher tariffs on Indian imports as a response to India's actions [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Relations - President Trump announced plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian imports due to India's substantial purchases of Russian oil, which he claims are being resold for profit [1]. - The U.S. intended to impose a 25% "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods starting August 1, but the implementation was delayed to August 7 [1]. - Despite U.S. pressure, Indian officials stated that their stance on purchasing Russian oil remains unchanged, citing long-term contracts as a reason for continued imports [2]. Group 2: Oil Import Dynamics - India is the third-largest oil importer globally, with Russia supplying approximately 35% of its total oil needs [3]. - Following the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, India's daily imports of Russian oil surged from 68,000 barrels in January 2022 to a peak of 215,000 barrels in May 2023 [3]. - India's continued import of Russian oil is seen as a response to U.S. tariff threats and a reflection of its strategic autonomy in foreign policy [4]. Group 3: Structural Issues in U.S.-India Relations - The article highlights a "structural rift" in U.S.-India relations, exacerbated by the U.S. push for India to open its agricultural market, which India has resisted due to domestic economic concerns [4]. - The relationship has shifted from one of strategic partnership to one marked by tension and mistrust, with Trump expressing indifference to India's economic stability [3][4]. - The article suggests that India's long-standing position of strategic autonomy in foreign policy is validated by the current tensions with the U.S. [5]. Group 4: Broader Implications of U.S. Tariff Policies - The article critiques the U.S. government's tariff policies as misguided, arguing that they could lead to greater isolation for the U.S. in the global trade system [6]. - It notes that traditional allies like Japan and the EU have also faced pressure from the U.S. to accept unfavorable trade agreements, highlighting a trend of increasing U.S. unilateralism [5][6].
深观察丨在美国,番茄会成为“下一个鸡蛋”吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 14:01
Core Viewpoint - The termination of the long-standing "Tomato Agreement" between the U.S. and Mexico has led to the imposition of a 17.09% tariff on most Mexican tomatoes, significantly impacting prices for consumers and businesses in the U.S. [1][4][6] Group 1: Impact on Consumers - The new tariff will increase costs for consumers in grocery stores and restaurants, particularly affecting items that use tomatoes, such as salads and pizzas [1][6] - The CEO of a major tomato distributor indicated that prices for tomatoes could rise by nearly 10% due to the new tariffs, which may lead to increased living costs for consumers across the U.S. [6][11] Group 2: Impact on Businesses - The new tariff threatens the livelihoods of tens of thousands of Mexican tomato farmers, with U.S. Department of Agriculture estimating a 5% reduction in Mexico's tomato exports this year [6][9] - Many U.S. businesses, particularly in the restaurant sector, are facing potential bankruptcy due to rising tomato prices, with some owners already considering menu price increases to cope with the costs [11][13] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Dynamics - Approximately 60% of fresh fruit and 40% of fresh vegetables in the U.S. are imported, with Mexico being the largest supplier [5] - The termination of the agreement is seen as a political move rather than a commercial one, with experts noting that U.S. growers may not be able to fill the gap left by reduced imports from Mexico [9][11] Group 4: Employment Effects - The reduction in tomato imports could lead to a decrease in related job opportunities, with previous reports indicating that importing and selling fresh tomatoes from Mexico supports around 47,000 full-time and part-time jobs in the U.S. [9][11]