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华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250710
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 06:30
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views - For building materials (成材), it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving down and showing weak performance. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [1][2]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term. The inventory trend is fluctuating during the off - season, and the upward space is limited by the off - season pressure on the demand side. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up rates [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production for maintenance from mid - January, resuming around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Building materials prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low recently. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and there are few bright spots both macro - economically and industrially [2]. Aluminum Ingots - As of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical alumina in China was 110.82 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 88.63 million tons/year. The weekly alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. By the end of June, the inventory in alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2]. - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% last week [2]. - On July 10, 2024, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas in China was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory decreased in the short term due to more ingot casting in some areas and less arrival [2]. - The inventory trend is fluctuating during the off - season. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space [3].