Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term. The finished products are expected to continue to move with a downward - shifted center of gravity and weak operation, while the aluminum price is supported by geopolitical and fundamental factors to remain high [1][2][3] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel production enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the remaining mills will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak support for the price [2] Aluminum - In March 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.6% year - on - year and 10.7% month - on - month. The downstream industry's start - up rate increased overall, and the proportion of molten aluminum rose by about 9.3 percentage points to 73.7%, higher than the initial expectation. The domestic aluminum processing comprehensive PMI reached 65.6%, indicating a significant rebound above the boom - bust line [2] - In March, the aluminum processing industry showed a rapid recovery trend under the combined effects of the "Golden March" peak season, post - holiday resumption of production, policy drive, and high prosperity in some emerging fields. However, factors such as high - level fluctuations in aluminum prices, differentiation in terminal demand, disturbances to exports caused by the Middle East situation, as well as scrap aluminum costs and compliance policy constraints, still limit the industry's subsequent upward space [2] - In mid - to late March, the regional differentiation in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market became more significant, with the inventory trends in East and South China deviating from the spot price difference, and regional market differentiation becoming the core feature of the current electrolytic aluminum spot market [2] - The volatile Middle East situation gives the aluminum price short - term upward momentum. The domestic inventory is still high, and the domestic price is expected to be weaker than the overseas price. The current market trading sentiment revolves around oil prices, and the Middle East geopolitics is the core variable affecting market games [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移，偏弱运行 [1][3] -铝锭预计价格短期偏强运行，关注宏观情绪 [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修时间多在1月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月十一至十六，停产预计影响总产量74.1万吨 [2][3] -安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日停产，大部分1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积223.4万平方米，环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [3] -成材昨日震荡下行，价格创新低，供需双弱，市场情绪悲观，冬储低迷，对价格支撑不强 [3] 铝锭 -昨日铝价冲高，近期中东局势紧张，铝产能受影响，短期拉升价格 [2] -国内氧化铝市场累库且幅度扩大，供应端开工率小幅回落，但广西新投项目投产，周度产量环比增长，供应压力显现 [3] -3月铝加工综合PMI为65.6%，反弹至荣枯线上方，行业整体景气度回升，各细分板块PMI跃升，呈现节后修复、旺季驱动特征 [3] -4月铝加工行业景气度预计由“全面修复”转向“结构分化”，综合PMI中枢向荣枯线回归 [3] -三月下半月，国内电解铝市场区域分化行情显著，华东、华南库存走势与现货价差背离加剧 [3] -周末局势紧张，铝价短期获走强动力，国内库存偏高，预计价格较外盘偏弱，市场交易情绪围绕油价，中东地缘是核心变量 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak operation [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short term, with the Middle East situation intensifying tensions and providing impetus for the price to strengthen [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou regions' short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one mill started to shut down on January 5, and most of the other mills will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift of the price center. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price moved within a range. The Taweela plant of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and the factory of Aluminium Bahrain were seriously damaged in the attacks of Iranian missiles and drones. The weekend Middle East situation became tense again, affecting the Middle East aluminum production capacity and driving the price up in the short term [1] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises last week increased by 1.1 percentage points to 64% compared with the previous period. Each sector's operating rate showed a differential recovery, and consumption gradually returned to the peak season rhythm, but the overall level was still lower than the same period last year. The recovery intensity of demand was intertwined with macro - environment disturbances [2] - In mid - March, the regional differentiation of the domestic electrolytic aluminum market became more significant. The inventory trends and spot price differences in East China and South China deviated. The inventory backlog pressure in East China was gradually relieved, and the inventory accumulation momentum slowed down. The market's expectation of an inventory inflection point in late March increased. In South China, the aluminum ingot inventory increased abnormally, and the price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai expanded to nearly three - digit range [2] - The current market trading sentiment revolves around oil prices, and the Middle East geopolitics has become the core variable affecting market games. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent evolution of macro - events and the inventory inflection point [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights that Japan's aluminum ingot supply is heavily reliant on imports, with a significant portion sourced from the Middle East, which is now facing supply chain disruptions due to military conflicts affecting the Strait of Hormuz [2][4]. - China produces 60% of the world's aluminum ingots, primarily for domestic consumption, while the Middle East accounts for 20% of global production outside of China [2][4]. - Japanese companies are beginning to explore alternative procurement routes and suppliers, with a focus on sourcing from countries like Australia and South Africa due to the instability in the Middle East [5][7]. Group 2 - The Japan Aluminum Association reported that member companies are discussing changes to their aluminum ingot transportation routes and procurement sources, indicating a proactive approach to mitigate supply chain risks [5]. - As of the end of February, Japan's aluminum ingot port inventory was approximately 302,300 tons, which is estimated to cover 2 to 3 months of consumption, suggesting that immediate supply chain impacts may be limited [7]. - Concerns are rising among manufacturers using aluminum in their products, such as TOPY INDUSTRIES, regarding the potential long-term effects on inventory and supply chains, which may become apparent in 1 to 2 months [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and oscillate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short term and adjust under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown arrangements, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to oscillate downward, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Overseas electrolytic aluminum production reduction expectations still exist, and the global supply contraction logic remains. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable with limited supply increments [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9% last week, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released. The photovoltaic materials in the profile sector entered the final stage of "rush - export", and new orders in the automotive and power fields increased significantly [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory. As of March 19, the inventory in the mainstream consumption areas was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, but the inventory accumulation situation has shown signs of easing [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the bottom of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. Domestic high - inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under short-term pressure for adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month [2] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum Ingots - Last week, the aluminum price corrected from its high. Due to the easing of sentiment and profit - taking by long positions, the previous risk premium was retracted. The stronger US dollar and tightened liquidity expectations suppressed the valuation of commodities [2] - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are ramping up production, but geopolitical conflicts have affected the supply in the Middle East, with a decrease in daily output expected [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9%, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory, but the pressure has been alleviated, and the inventory accumulation slope has shown signs of moderation. As of March 19, the inventory was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the price of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. The Back structure has weakened. Domestic high inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the focus on macro policies and downstream demand [4] - Aluminum prices are expected to be under short - term pressure adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, including macro - expected changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [5] 3) Summarized by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production from mid - January and resume around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 74.1 million tons during the shutdown [3][4] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 1.62 million tons during the shutdown [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 billion square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price focus is moving down, and winter storage has little price support [4] Aluminum Ingot - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are ramping up production, but geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East make the supply unstable, with a decrease in daily output expected [4] - Qatar Aluminum maintains a 60% operating rate, reducing 260,000 tons of production capacity; Bahrain Aluminum cuts 19% of its operating capacity, i.e., 310,000 tons; Mozambique Aluminum stopped production on March 15, involving 580,000 tons of capacity, with a total reduction of 1.15 million tons [4] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9%, with the peak season emerging and demand being released. The photovoltaic materials are in the final stage of "rush - to - export", and new orders in the automotive and power sectors have increased significantly [4] - On Thursday this week, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 1.339 million tons, a 45,000 - ton increase from last Thursday. The ingot - casting volume in March is expected to remain high, and the inventory accumulation trend will continue, with the post - holiday peak expected to reach 1.35 - 1.4 million tons [4] - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase price volatility. LME inventory decline supports LME aluminum, but it lacks upward momentum. Domestic high - inventory and weak reality suppress upward momentum, and the internal and external drivers are different [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a range with a downward shift in the center of gravity and a weak operation [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with a short - term range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Steel - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one mill started to shut down on January 5, and most of the others will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The price of finished steel continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center of gravity. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [2] - The finished steel is expected to move in a range [2] Aluminum - The inventory of the domestic alumina market continues to decline, but the decline rate narrows, and the overall inventory level is still high, with further prominent structural differentiation characteristics [2] - There is still an expectation of overseas electrolytic aluminum production cuts. Due to energy and logistics factors in Europe and the Middle East, some production capacities have entered the maintenance cycle, and the logic of global supply contraction remains intact [2] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operation remains stable, with limited incremental supply and overall stability [2] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9% week - on - week, continuing the post - holiday recovery trend [2] - The aluminum cable sector is strong, with the operating rate increasing by 2 percentage points to 65%. The demand for UHV and overhead lines is strong, and the enterprise production schedule has covered March [2] - The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 72.9%. There is a co - existence of traditional peak - season demand recovery and short - term support from battery foils, but the Middle East war situation affects the air - conditioner foil production plan [2] - On Monday, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas increased by 18,500 tons week - on - week, showing a stockpiling trend in all three regions. The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, with a short - term range - bound oscillation [1][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][2] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, and investors are advised to pay attention to macro - sentiment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown time is mostly in mid - to - late January, and the resumption time is expected to be from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month. The shutdown is expected to affect the total production of construction steel by 741,000 tons [1] - Among 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province, 1 mill stopped production on January 5th, and most of the others will stop production around mid - January. The daily production affected during the shutdown is about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new recent low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict driving up energy prices and raising the inflation center, the market's interest rate cut expectation has been significantly postponed. The first interest rate cut window this year is likely to be postponed to the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter, and the policy easing pace has become more cautious [1] - Overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has declined, and the global supply contraction expectation is strengthened. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable [2] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9% week - on - week, continuing the post - holiday recovery trend. The aluminum cable sector is strong, with the operating rate increasing by 2 percentage points to 65%. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises remained stable at 72.9%, but the Middle East war has restricted the further improvement of the air - conditioning foil production plan [2] - Aluminum prices and macro uncertainties are suppressing the release of demand. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas increased by 18,500 tons on Monday, and the premium is expected to continue to shrink [2] - Although the domestic social inventory is accumulating, the Middle East geopolitical situation has increased the risk premium of the global aluminum supply chain. Overseas prices are strongly supported, while domestic upward momentum is weak, and the Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and rose, with the import window for domestic refined copper opening. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran continue to impact the market, causing concerns about global economic growth and putting pressure on copper demand and liquidity. Short - term support levels are in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. Light - position long positions can be considered if inventory accumulation weakens and spot discounts narrow; otherwise, continue to observe if geopolitical conflicts expand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Domestic alumina manufacturers are dealing with losses, and overseas alumina raw materials are being redirected. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is under pressure due to production cuts in the Middle East, leading to a "rush for aluminum" in the overseas market. The domestic market is in a state of inventory accumulation and slow demand start, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices are rising due to supply shortages and increased shipping costs, but the large increase in primary nickel inventory poses significant pressure. Despite the expected supplementary quota in July, considering the rising cost, short - term long positions based on the cost line can be considered, while being vigilant about macro - level impacts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices rose. Geopolitical factors, economic data, and inventory changes all affect the copper market. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 311,600 tons, Comex inventory decreased by 1,708 tons to 535,028 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 7,935 tons to 322,998 tons. Short - term support is at 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina rose 0.57% to 2,989 yuan/ton, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.48% to 24,970 yuan/ton, and aluminum alloy fell 0.13% to 23,685 yuan/ton. Domestic alumina manufacturers are dealing with losses, and overseas raw materials are being redirected. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is under pressure, and the domestic market is waiting for a turning point [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.95% to 17,485 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.37% to 136,900 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 744 tons to 283,914 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 845 tons to 57,307 tons. Nickel ore prices are rising, but primary nickel inventory is increasing. Short - term long positions based on the cost line can be considered [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On March 16, 2026, the price of flat - water copper was 99,155 yuan/ton, down 1,345 yuan from March 13. LME and COMEX inventories changed, and social inventory decreased by 0.8 million tons [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead was 16,330 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from March 13. Warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 535 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 9,220 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 32,000 tons, and the social inventory of alumina increased by 45,000 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 2,650 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE inventories changed, and social inventory increased by 2,953 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.8%. The weekly inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.51 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 3.3%. The weekly inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 851 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [36][38][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research, both with significant achievements and media exposure [49][50].