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关键金属供应评估报告(S232)
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RadexMarkets瑞德克斯:白银强势冲高下的潜在波动
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 11:23
Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have recently surged above $60 per ounce, significantly outperforming most commodities, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [1][4] Market Trends - RadexMarkets indicates that while silver's upward trend is supported by solid fundamentals, short-term price corrections may occur as traditional market dynamics normalize [1][4] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to 69, indicating a low level not seen in recent years, suggesting silver's strong performance relative to gold [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since late August, multiple factors have contributed to silver's strong momentum, including temporary supply chain tensions, robust industrial demand, and renewed investor interest [2][4] - London’s main silver inventory has increased by 1,447 tons year-to-date, while Comex inventory has risen by 4,311 tons, with the inventory ratio reaching 1.91, a recent high [2][4] ETF and Market Liquidity - The silver market is currently influenced by the flow of funds into silver ETPs, with November seeing an inflow of 487 tons and December adding another 475 tons, marking the largest inflow since 2020 [2][4] - Although liquidity has improved, it remains tight due to a portion of inventory being held in physical silver ETPs [2][4] Technical Analysis - From a gold-silver ratio perspective, there is still room for silver to rise, but slight signs of overbought conditions suggest a potential short-term technical correction [3][5] - RadexMarkets maintains a positive long-term outlook for silver, but anticipates increased price volatility due to market focus on key metal supply assessment reports and regional supply-demand tensions [5]