今年以来，白银涨幅已超过100%，甚至超过黄金的约60% 文｜《财经》研究员 顾欣宇 编辑｜张威 截至北京时间12月18日11时，现货白银站上66美元/盎司，报66.332美元/盎司，再创新高。今年以来，白银涨幅已超过 100%，甚至超过黄金的约60%。 德意志银行认为，若金银比下探64，白银估值将触及极值点。国投期货则预计金银比将跌破50，银价看涨至80美元-90美元/ 盎司。广发期货也认为2026年银价将延续震荡上行，但涨幅可能放缓。 白银节节高也牵动着每一个普通投资者的心。有许多人跃跃欲试，想要迎风赶上，赚一杯羹，许多人在社交媒体上询 问："白银怎么买？" 世界白银协会2025年8月报告显示，在美、印、德等国，实物白银、白银交易所交易产品（下称"白银ETP"）及期货是主要投 资方式。 白银ETP是跟踪基础资产或指数表现的，为投资者提供对各种市场和资产的投资机会。它们通常在交易所交易，就像股票一 样，主要包括交易所交易基金、交易所交易票据和交易所交易商品等产品。 在中国，投资方式多样，国投瑞银白银期货作为公募市场唯一的白银期货基金，因跟踪国内期货合约、相对省心而受到部分 投资者关注，但该基金也曾因市场过热 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have recently surged above $60 per ounce, significantly outperforming most commodities, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100% [1][4] Market Trends - RadexMarkets indicates that while silver's upward trend is supported by solid fundamentals, short-term price corrections may occur as traditional market dynamics normalize [1][4] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to 69, indicating a low level not seen in recent years, suggesting silver's strong performance relative to gold [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since late August, multiple factors have contributed to silver's strong momentum, including temporary supply chain tensions, robust industrial demand, and renewed investor interest [2][4] - London’s main silver inventory has increased by 1,447 tons year-to-date, while Comex inventory has risen by 4,311 tons, with the inventory ratio reaching 1.91, a recent high [2][4] ETF and Market Liquidity - The silver market is currently influenced by the flow of funds into silver ETPs, with November seeing an inflow of 487 tons and December adding another 475 tons, marking the largest inflow since 2020 [2][4] - Although liquidity has improved, it remains tight due to a portion of inventory being held in physical silver ETPs [2][4] Technical Analysis - From a gold-silver ratio perspective, there is still room for silver to rise, but slight signs of overbought conditions suggest a potential short-term technical correction [3][5] - RadexMarkets maintains a positive long-term outlook for silver, but anticipates increased price volatility due to market focus on key metal supply assessment reports and regional supply-demand tensions [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that silver has reached a historic high of over $60 per ounce, driven by trader bets on further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and ongoing supply tightness, with a year-to-date increase of over $31 or 108% [1] - Silver's performance has significantly outpaced gold, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to 69, the lowest level since July 2021 [1] - Suki Cooper from Standard Chartered Bank notes that while silver's price momentum is supported by strong fundamentals, normalization of traditional market dynamics may lead to short-term volatility [1] Group 2 - Cooper indicates that despite some alleviation in supply chain issues, market uncertainty remains, with an increase in London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) inventories and a decrease in Chinese stocks [2] - Year-to-date, LBMA inventories have increased by 1,447 tons, while Comex inventories have risen by 4,311 tons, with most inventory still in London [2] - The short-term silver market will be driven by inflows into exchange-traded products (ETPs), which are experiencing the largest inflows since 2020, with 487 tons added in November and 475 tons in December [2] Group 3 - Cooper summarizes that while the gold-silver ratio remains above the long-term average of 65, the current level indicates silver's recent strong performance and suggests potential short-term corrections [3] - The market is expected to remain volatile, particularly with attention on the S232 critical minerals report, which may exacerbate regional market tensions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached a historic high of over $60 per ounce, driven by trader bets on further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and ongoing supply tightness, with a year-to-date increase of over $31 or 108% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite the strong upward trend in silver prices, short-term volatility may be expected due to normalization of traditional market dynamics [3] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to 69, the lowest level since July 2021, indicating silver's performance has significantly outpaced that of gold [3] - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) inventory has increased by 1,447 tons year-to-date, while the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) inventory has risen by 4,311 tons, with most inventory still held in London [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The recent surge in silver prices has been driven by multiple factors, including global supply chain issues, strong industrial consumption, and renewed investor interest [3] - Although supply chain issues have eased, market uncertainty remains, with a slight decrease in U.S. inventory adding liquidity to the global market [3] - The demand for silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) has seen significant inflows, with 487 tons added in November and another 475 tons in December [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - While silver prices are expected to remain positive, a short-term correction may occur due to the current high gold-silver ratio, which suggests silver may be overbought [5] - The market is closely watching the S232 critical minerals report, which could exacerbate regional market tensions [5]

Core Insights - Metals Focus predicts that silver demand in the Indian market will remain strong in the coming months, supported by positive market sentiment and rising GDP growth [1][2] Group 1: Silver Price Trends - Silver prices have significantly increased this year, with international prices rising approximately 65% and domestic prices in India increasing over 70% due to the depreciation of the Indian Rupee [1] - Current local silver prices are around 150,000 INR per kilogram, marking a critical psychological threshold [1] Group 2: Import Dynamics - Silver imports in India have surged since September, with October's local silver premium rising to 1-1.5 USD per ounce, indicating strong demand [2] - In the first eight months of 2025, India's total silver imports reached 3,288 tons, with September's imports estimated at around 800 tons, exceeding 4,000 tons year-to-date, nearly 10% higher than the average of the past five years [2] Group 3: Investment Demand - The primary driver of silver demand in India this year has been investment purchases, while jewelry and silverware sectors have shown weakness, although there has been some recent recovery [3] - Investor confidence remains high due to the sharp rise in silver prices, with many expecting prices to reach 200,000 INR per kilogram in the medium term [3] Group 4: Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) - Strong inflows into silver exchange-traded products (ETPs) have significantly contributed to the surge in imports, with total holdings exceeding 2,000 tons and a year-to-date increase of over 60% [4] Group 5: Jewelry and Silverware Market - Despite high silver prices suppressing jewelry demand, there has been a recent uptick in sales driven by festive and wedding seasons, with silver jewelry becoming a more affordable alternative to gold [6] - The silverware segment is expected to be the most affected by high silver prices, with manufacturers introducing lighter products to meet consumer budget constraints [6] Group 6: Future Outlook - After the festive and wedding season, silver imports may slow down, but the ongoing rise in silver prices is expected to attract new investment purchases [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that silver has become an attractive and undervalued asset as retail investors seek financial assets to hedge against risks associated with global monetary policy shifts towards easing [2] - Silver prices have surged significantly, reflecting increased recognition among retail traders that silver remains undervalued compared to gold, which continues to reach historical highs [2] - The industrial demand for silver is expected to grow, with a projected 4% increase in silver industrial demand in 2024, reaching 680.5 million ounces, and solar energy consumption expected to account for 195.7 million ounces in 2025 [2] Group 2 - The largest silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust (ARCA: SLV), has seen a year-to-date increase of over 60%, driven by a trend of investors concentrating on safe-haven assets [3] - The silver market is predicted to face one of the largest supply shortages on record by 2025, with a projected deficit of 187.6 million ounces due to mining production lagging behind demand growth [3] - Technical analysis indicates that a breakthrough above $51.24 could confirm a renewed bullish trend, while a drop below $47.33 would shift the secondary trend to bearish [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is driven by multiple factors including the correction of the gold-silver ratio, increased industrial demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - As of September 3, spot silver prices reached a high of $40.973 per ounce, marking a significant increase of over 40% year-to-date [2][3]. - The gold-silver ratio, which peaked at 106 in April 2025, is currently around 87, indicating potential for further price correction in silver [3][4][7]. - The supply of silver is constrained, with a projected decline of 1.3% in global mine supply in 2024, contributing to upward price pressure [4]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Silver ETP holdings have increased by nearly 4,000 tons since February 7, translating to an inflow of approximately $1.3 billion at an average price of $34 per ounce [5]. - There has been a structural shift in the silver market, with sovereign wealth funds and large institutions beginning to invest in silver assets, breaking the long-standing trend of favoring gold [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The investment demand for silver is expected to grow, with potential price increases projected based on the gold-silver ratio and economic conditions [7]. - If the gold price reaches $3,700 per ounce, silver could rise to $49.3 per ounce, and if gold hits $4,000 per ounce, silver could reach $53.3 per ounce, indicating significant upside potential [7].