Group 1: Steel Industry Outlook - The steel industry's mid-cycle outlook faces challenges due to weak demand and tariff barriers, with companies like Tata Steel, Nucor, and Steel Dynamics expected to maintain relative premium due to favorable demand prospects and tariff protections [3][5] - Chinese steel companies are anticipated to improve profitability due to demand recovery and production cuts, with a year-on-year demand growth of 4.3% driven mainly by the automotive and machinery sectors, while exports grew by 9.2% [5][6] - North American steel producers have an optimistic outlook despite uncertainties from tariff policy changes and infrastructure investment delays, with a projected 3% decline in steel demand in 2024 followed by a 2% rebound in 2025 [12][14] Group 2: Copper Industry Insights - U.S. copper tariffs aim to encourage supply repatriation, but limited smelting capacity and slow approval processes hinder this goal, leading to continued reliance on imports [7][8] - Freeport-McMoRan is expected to benefit from increased sales, as U.S. refined copper production in 2024 is projected at 850,000 tons, meeting less than half of the demand [7][8] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver is expected to be revalued further, driven by strong industrial demand, with the gold-silver ratio potentially moving from 90 to 80 as macroeconomic factors shift [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices due to political statements and potential tariffs, highlighting the impact of U.S. monetary policy and the shift towards digital currencies as a means to sustain financial prosperity [2][25][26]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Price Movements - Trump's announcement of a 39% tariff on Swiss gold bars led to a nearly $100 increase in gold prices, but this was later clarified as a misunderstanding, stabilizing the market [2][25]. - Gold prices experienced volatility with a significant drop followed by a rebound, reflecting market uncertainty regarding geopolitical events and U.S. policy [2][25]. - The gold price has accumulated a 28.9% increase year-to-date as of August 5, while silver prices have risen by 31.0% in the same period [7][10]. Group 2: Fund Positions and Market Sentiment - Managed positions in COMEX gold saw a net long position increase of 13.3% to 503 tons, marking the highest level since September 2019 [3][7]. - In contrast, COMEX silver experienced a 29.8% decrease in net long positions, dropping to 4,762 tons, the lowest in 11 weeks [3][7]. - The article notes that palladium has been in a net short position for 135 weeks, indicating a bearish sentiment in that market [8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The article highlights the potential for U.S. interest rate cuts, with a significant probability of maintaining rates in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [23]. - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio fell by 9.3%, indicating a potential divergence between gold prices and mining stocks, which may signal caution for investors [21]. - The gold-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, was reported at 88.673, reflecting ongoing high risk awareness in the market [22]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Implications - The article suggests that U.S. policy changes may be aimed at diverting investment from commodities to digital currencies, which are closely tied to the dollar [26]. - The geopolitical landscape is expected to become more complex, particularly with Trump's focus on resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which may have broader implications for global markets [25][26].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a stalemate, with prices hovering around $1900, reflecting a tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1][2] - Bullish sentiment is supported by weak global economic data, particularly China's manufacturing PMI at 48.8, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - Bearish pressure arises from a strengthening US dollar, bolstered by unexpectedly strong non-farm payroll data and indications from Federal Reserve officials suggesting further interest rate hikes [1] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is showing initial signs of a bullish reversal, with a clear breakout above a long-term resistance channel [3] - A W-bottom pattern is forming, particularly around the $24 support level, indicating potential upward movement [3] - The gold-silver ratio is declining from approximately 85 to 80, suggesting an increase in market risk appetite and a shift towards more aggressive assets like silver [4] Group 3: Industrial Demand for Silver - Silver demand is surging due to significant growth in the photovoltaic industry (over 30% year-on-year) and a 15% increase in demand from electric vehicle battery applications [4] - The combination of industrial demand and the perception of silver being undervalued is fueling the current bullish trend in the silver market [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For gold investors, a patient approach is advised, utilizing a strategy of light positions and opportunistic trading around the $1900-$1910 range, with close monitoring of potential breakout points above $1950 [5] - Silver investors are encouraged to consider buying on dips, particularly around the $24.2-$24.5 support level, with protective stop-losses set below $24 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the U.S. employment data and its implications for market sentiment, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and the impact on precious metals prices [2][3][25]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic indicators, including employment data, consumer confidence, and corporate earnings, have shown improvement, leading to speculation about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2][25]. - The July non-farm payrolls report showed only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations, with prior months' figures also revised downwards, raising concerns about the reliability of U.S. employment data [2][25]. Market Sentiment - The market has begun to recognize the fragility of the U.S. employment situation, likening it to "the emperor's new clothes," which may lead to increased calls for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][26]. - Following the disappointing employment data, U.S. stock markets experienced a decline, which may be a temporary technical adjustment rather than a long-term trend [3][26]. Precious Metals Market - The article highlights the recent changes in managed positions for precious metals in the U.S. futures market, indicating a decrease in net long positions for gold and silver, while platinum saw a slight increase [5][9]. - As of July 29, net long positions for gold fell by 16.4% to 444 tons, marking the lowest level in three weeks, while silver's net long positions decreased by 3.6% to 6,786 tons [5][9]. - The correlation between gold and silver prices remains strong, with silver experiencing a more volatile market response compared to gold [9][12]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, with significant probabilities assigned to rate cuts in September, October, and December [3][25][24]. - The article suggests that if the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates but inflation pressures resurface, it will pose a significant challenge for future monetary policy [27]. Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gold-to-mining stock ratio as a forward-looking indicator for gold prices, suggesting that if gold prices rise while mining stocks decline, it may signal caution for investors [19][26]. - The gold-silver ratio, which measures market sentiment, has shown a rebound, indicating heightened risk awareness among investors [21][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold**: The price was supported by strong buying after a decline, with a rebound due to disappointing US non - farm payroll data. The short - term gold - silver ratio may be in a rebound channel, and the overall gold and silver market lacks a clear trend, mainly in a range - bound pattern [7]. - **Silver**: The upward space is basically saturated, showing a relatively weak trend this week [7]. - **Copper**: Global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory. The copper price's driving logic will shift from inventory - structure logic to fundamental logic. Although there are uncertainties in the macro - environment, there is support at the bottom. Downstream buyers are more active at low prices, and LME copper price may be weak, which is favorable for the internal - external reverse arbitrage [90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver 3.1.1 Price and Market Performance - This week, London gold rose 0.1%, and London silver fell 5.8%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 86.3 to 92.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.9%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.23% [7]. - Gold prices initially declined but were supported by buying. After the disappointing non - farm payroll data on Friday, gold prices rebounded significantly [7]. 3.1.2 Transaction - related Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Most gold and silver futures contracts showed price changes, with some gold contracts rising and silver contracts falling. For example, Comex gold 2510 rose 2.32%, while Comex silver 2510 fell 3.18% [9]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver futures contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of沪银2510 decreased by 100,557 hands, and the open interest decreased by 85,634 hands [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.95 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio fell to 54.7%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 6.34 million ounces to 506.66 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 37.8% [42][44]. - **ETF Holdings**: The gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 4.01 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 145.51 tons [54][56]. 3.1.3 Price Spreads - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spreads**: The London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 53.36 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 55.9 dollars per ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread converged to - 0.088 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 0.345 dollars per ounce [14][17]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spreads**: The gold spot - futures spread was - 3.54 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures spread was - 30 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [21][24]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The gold monthly spread was 6.9 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver monthly spread was 72 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [28][33]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market and Fundamental Situation - **Inventory**: Global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory. Domestic social inventory increased by 0.51 tons to 11.93 tons as of August 1, but the absolute inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period of history [90]. - **Supply**: The tight supply of copper concentrates has weakened, and the spot TC has rebounded marginally, but smelting is still in a large loss state. The refined - scrap copper price difference has narrowed, and the import of recycled copper is in a loss state, indicating a tight supply of recycled copper [90]. - **Demand**: Downstream and terminal enterprises increased raw material procurement at low prices. The copper spot premium expanded from 125 yuan per ton on July 25 to 175 yuan per ton on August 1 [90]. 3.2.2 Transaction - related Data - **Volatility**: The volatility of COMEX copper rebounded, while the volatility of copper in other markets declined [96]. - **Term Spreads**: The C - structure of Shanghai copper strengthened, and the LME copper spot discount was weak. The COMEX copper C - structure expanded [101]. - **Open Interest**: Shanghai copper open interest decreased by 27,900 hands to 482,600 hands, while the open interest of LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper increased [102]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Long Net Positions**: The CFTC non - commercial long net positions decreased from 39,800 hands on July 22 to 37,300 hands on July 29 [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, London gold rebounded by 0.1%, while London silver declined by 5.8%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 86.3 to 92.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.9%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.23% [3]. - Gold prices initially faced downward pressure due to factors like tariff decisions and strong economic data but were supported by returning long - term funds. After the disappointing US non - farm payrolls data on Friday, gold prices rebounded significantly [3]. - In the short term, the gold - silver ratio may be in a rebound channel, but it's hard to predict a clear trend for gold and silver. Technical signals may be more effective than fundamental factors, and the prices generally remain in the previously predicted range - bound pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Price Changes**: Most gold and silver futures and spot prices showed fluctuations. For example, Comex gold 2510 rose 2.32%, while Comex silver 2510 fell 3.18% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Trading volumes and open interests of different gold and silver contracts changed. For instance, the trading volume of沪银2510 decreased by 100,557 hands, and its open interest decreased by 85,634 hands [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.95 million ounces, and its registered warrant ratio fell to 54.7%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 6.34 million ounces to 506.66 million ounces, and its registered warrant ratio rose to 37.8% [37][39]. - **Spread Changes**: Various spreads, including overseas and domestic spot - futures spreads, monthly spreads, and cross - market spreads, changed. For example, the London spot - COMEX gold主力spread fell to - 53.36 dollars per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Transaction - related Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Open Interest) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spreads**: This week, the London spot - COMEX gold主力spread fell to - 53.36 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力spread was - 55.9 dollars per ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力spread converged to - 0.088 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力spread was - 0.345 dollars per ounce [8][9][12]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spreads**: The gold spot - futures spread was - 3.54 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures spread was - 30 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [16][19]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The gold monthly spread was 6.9 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver monthly spread was 72 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [23][28]. - **Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs**: The report calculated the cross - month positive arbitrage delivery costs for gold and silver, including costs such as delivery fees, storage fees, and capital costs [31][32][33][34]. - **Deferred Fee Payment Directions**: This week, the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold and silver was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power [35]. - **Inventory and Open Interest - Inventory Ratios**: COMEX gold and silver inventories changed, and their registered warrant ratios also changed [37][39]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: This week, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX gold and silver both declined slightly [44]. - **ETF Holdings**: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 4.01 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 145.51 tons [50][52]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold - silver ratio rose from 86 to 92.5 [55]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was - 0.23%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 1.77% [57]. 3.3 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: Data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales were presented [67][68]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, unemployment claims, labor force participation rate, and unemployment rate, were provided [70][71][72]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: Not detailed in the content - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: Not detailed in the content - **Fed Rate - cut Probability**: The report showed the Fed rate - cut probabilities in different regions and at different times [80].

黄金盛宴下的冰与火之歌：产业链在高压下挣扎求生 在金价如火箭般蹿升的背景下，一幅冰与火交织的复杂画卷正在贵金属产业链上徐徐展开。国际金价气势如虹，一举冲破3400美元/盎司，刷新了五周来的 最高纪录，国内金饰市场也随之沸腾，各大品牌金店的首饰价格普遍突破1000元/克大关，单日涨幅高达7-10元/克。 就在这黄金盛世之中，市场的脉搏却并非全然跳动着兴奋的节拍。上海黄金交易所的风险提示公告在交易大厅闪烁，提醒着每个逐金者：盛宴背后，暗流从 未停息。 国际黄金市场的风云突变，为这场"淘金热"埋下了伏笔。7月22日，COMEX期货黄金价格单日暴涨1.55%，国内金价也同步上扬，上海黄金交易所报价直逼 781.50元/克。周大福、周生生等金饰品牌迅速做出反应，单日涨价7-10元/克，足金首饰价格分别攀升至1015元/克和1021元/克。 避险情绪的升温，无疑是这轮金价上涨的重要推手。随着8月1日欧美关税谈判截止日的临近，叠加中东地区紧张局势的持续升级以及美债收益率的大幅回 落，大量资金涌入黄金市场，单日流入黄金ETF的资金就高达18.7吨。同时，美元指数跌至三个月低点，进一步凸显了黄金的投资吸引力。 面对如此迅猛的涨 ...

Group 1 - Silver has recently experienced a significant price increase, with a cumulative rise of nearly 19% in London silver spot prices since June and approximately 35% in silver futures year-to-date, surpassing gold's increase of about 27% [3][4] - The price surge of silver is attributed to a combination of geopolitical risks and its industrial properties, with industrial demand accounting for 60% of total silver demand [5][7] - The historical relationship between gold and silver prices is closely linked, with the gold-silver ratio averaging around 58 since 1968, but this ratio has increased significantly due to gold's rapid price rise [4][5] Group 2 - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like photovoltaic energy and electronics, is driving its price up, as silver is essential in manufacturing solar panels and electronic components [9][10] - The increasing gap between gold and silver prices has created arbitrage opportunities, prompting investors to buy silver in anticipation of its price catching up to gold [9][12] - The recognition of silver's substantial utility value, both as a precious metal and an industrial raw material, is contributing to its rising demand, especially as global economic recovery continues [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively neutral short - term trend with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆★, suggesting a somewhat bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals prices rose. Powell's speech did not mention monetary policy, and the conflict between the White House and the Fed has drawn attention to the Fed's independence. Recently, the macro - sentiment has been positive, with commodities rising in rotation, and precious metals have followed this trend. There is still room for the gold - silver ratio to decline. Due to high market uncertainty before the deadline of US tariff policies, risk sentiment is volatile, and precious metals are likely to fluctuate widely, so chasing the market is not advisable [1] Summary by Related Topics Tariff Policies - The US Treasury Secretary stated that August 1st is a "relatively firm deadline" for all countries. EU trade negotiations are separate from Russia - Ukraine sanctions negotiations, and Japan's negotiations are progressing smoothly. Canada's Ontario Province is still considering an electricity export tax. South Korea is considering making painful concessions to avoid full - scale US tariffs. Trump reached a trade agreement with the Philippines, imposing a 19% tariff on the Philippines, while the Philippines will open its market to the US with zero tariffs. The US announced details of a trade agreement with Indonesia. The Canadian Prime Minister said that a favorable agreement for Canada with the US is "not on the table" [2] Fed and Monetary Policy - The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates and said there is no sign for Powell to resign, but if he wants to leave early, he can. White House officials plan to visit the Fed headquarters on Thursday. Trump believes Powell will soon leave and that interest rates should be cut by 3 percentage points or more. A fake Powell resignation letter circulated on social media. Fed Governor Bowman emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in monetary policy and its responsibility for transparency and accountability [2]

Core Insights - Gold prices have recently reached record highs, surpassing $3500 per ounce before retreating to $3350, while silver prices peaked above $37 per ounce, remaining below historical highs from 1980 and 2011 [1] - The relative value of gold and silver continues to fluctuate due to supply growth, central bank purchases, technological advancements, and the economic growth in China [1] Price Correlation - Historically, gold and silver prices have shown a high correlation, with a one-year rolling correlation coefficient ranging from 0.68 to 0.95, but this correlation has recently dropped to its lowest level in over 20 years [3] - The gold-silver ratio, which indicates how many ounces of silver are needed to purchase one ounce of gold, has fluctuated significantly, recently exceeding 100 for the first time since 2020 before falling back to 90 in June [4] Supply Dynamics - Gold production has been approximately 97 million ounces, while silver production is around 800 million ounces, with both metals' production peaking around 2015 and stabilizing since then [7] - Central banks have been net buyers of gold since 2008, which has reduced the available gold supply in the market, contrasting with silver, whose supply has increased by over 35% since 2005 [7][9] Demand Factors - Gold has limited industrial applications, primarily being used in jewelry and investment, while silver has a wide range of industrial uses, including in batteries and solar panels [10][11] - The demand for silver is significantly influenced by global industrial demand, particularly in the context of its growing applications in technology [12]