Morning session notice 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2605合约涨幅0.57%，收于2293 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、假期临近，现货购销清淡，部分企业停收。昨日深加工企业收购价弱稳为主。中 | | | | | 国粮油商务网监测数据显示东北地区深加工企业收购价2169元/吨，较前一日跌1元/ | | | | | 吨；华北地区企业收购均价2304元/吨，较前一日持平。 | | | | | 2、昨日南北港口价格小幅上涨。中国粮油商务网监测数据显示锦州港15%水二等玉 | | | | | 米收购价2280-2300元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2420元/吨，较 | | | | | 前一日涨10元/吨。 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 3、仓单方面，大商所数据显示截至2月10日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Positive" for the agricultural products sector [11] Core Viewpoints - The swine breeding industry has transitioned from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with medium to long-term capacity regulation becoming the new normal. High-quality breeding companies are expected to see significant improvements in profit margins and profitability levels [2][20] - The report highlights a divergence in profitability within the breeding sector, with leading companies still achieving good performance despite overall industry challenges. The poultry sector is experiencing a recovery in yellow-feathered chicken prices, which is gradually improving profitability [2][20] - The aquaculture feed industry continues to show strong performance, with leading companies like Haida Group expected to achieve simultaneous growth in volume and profit [2][20] - The pet food sector is experiencing sustained high growth in proprietary brands, with overseas factories demonstrating resilience in exports. Key recommendations include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [2][20] Summary by Sections Swine Breeding Sector - The swine breeding sector is gradually entering a loss phase, with significant divergence in profitability among listed companies. The average price of live pigs in Q3 2025 is approximately 14.0 CNY/kg, down 4% quarter-on-quarter and 28% year-on-year. The average profit for self-bred pigs is about 42 CNY/head, while purchasing piglets incurs a loss of 118 CNY/head [7][21] - High-quality breeding companies have a complete cost below 12 CNY/kg, maintaining a profit of over 200 CNY/head, while companies with higher costs may still face losses [7][21] - Future pig prices are expected to rise in Q4 2025 and 2026 due to increased supply indicators and policy-driven capacity restrictions [26] Feed Sector - The feed industry maintains growth in production, with aquaculture feed demand recovering. Haida Group's feed sales are expected to grow by about 20% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with net profit in the feed sector expected to increase by 30%-40% year-on-year [8][43] - The report notes that the structure of feed products is improving, with higher-margin products gaining a larger share of sales [8][43] Poultry Sector - The yellow-feathered chicken prices have bottomed out and are recovering, which is enhancing the profitability of the poultry breeding sector [2][20] Pet Food Sector - The pet food sector continues to see high growth in proprietary brands, with Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co recommended for their resilience in overseas sales. Online sales growth for the pet food industry is around 7.7%, with Guibao's proprietary brand growing by 21% [9][20]