民生证券发布研报表示，掘金牧业景气大周期，把握养殖龙头估值切换。1）肉牛及原奶：看好国内牧 业大周期反转，海内外肉牛及原奶景气有望共振上行。2）生猪：官方产能调控将加速头部企业现金流 快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下，龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者 恒强。3）禽：供给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有望实现更 高现金流分红回报。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势， 有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）宠物：稀缺消费成长行业，有望持续受益人口变化趋势。 投资建议：推 荐牧业、猪禽龙头、宠物。1）牧业推荐：优然牧业、现代牧业，建议关注中国圣牧。2）生猪推荐：华 统股份、德康农牧、牧原股份、温氏股份、天康生物、神农集团等。3）禽推荐：立华股份、益生股 份、圣农发展等。4）饲料推荐：海大集团。5）宠物推荐：乖宝宠物等。 ...

农牧渔板块今日（11月24日）开盘大涨。全市场"含猪量"最高的农牧渔ETF（159275）开盘后场内价格 一度涨超2%，截至发稿，涨1.01%。 展望后市，国信证券指出，生猪方面，官方产能调控将加速头部企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红 利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下，龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强；禽养殖方面，供给波 动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有望实现更高现金流分红回报；饲 料方面，畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优 势。 一键布局猪周期反转，重点关注全市场"含猪量"最高农牧渔ETF（159275）。根据中证指数公司统计， 农牧渔ETF（159275）被动跟踪中证全指农牧渔指数，权重股包括牧原股份、温氏股份等生猪养殖行业 龙头个股，亦覆盖饲料、粮食种植、动保等农牧渔产业链主要细分行业。场外投资者亦可通过农牧渔 ETF联接基金（A类013471/C类013472）布局农牧渔板块。 图片、数据来源：沪深交易所等，截至2025.11.24。 注：全市场唯一农牧渔ETF（159275）指唯一跟踪中证全指农牧渔指数的ETF。全市 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（183） 优于大市 生猪行业反内卷有序推进，看好海内外牧业大周期反转 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。11 月 21 日生猪价格 11.67 元/ 公斤，周环比-0.4%；15kg 仔猪价格约 318 元/头，周环比+0.5%。 原奶：Q4 奶牛去化有望加速，原奶价格年底或迎拐点。11 月 13 日，国内主 产区原奶均价为 3.02 元/kg，周度环比维持，同比-3.2%。 豆粕：短期到港供给宽松，中长期供需支撑走强。11 月 21 日，国内大豆现 货价为4015 元/吨，周环比+0.08%，豆粕现货价为3070 元/吨，周环比-0.90%。 玉米：国内供需平衡趋于收紧，价格有望维持温和上涨。11 月 21 日国内玉 米现货价 2227 元/吨，周环比+0.72%。 橡胶：短期价格预计趋稳，中期看好景气向上。11 月 21 日，天然橡胶现货 价为 14800 元/吨，周环比+0.0%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。11 月 21 日，鸡苗价格 3.48 元/ 羽，周 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创农业 10 月白羽肉禽月报 毛鸡价格稳后上扬，鸡苗价格高位偏强 ❑ 毛鸡&鸡苗：毛鸡价格稳后上扬，鸡苗价格高位偏强。 父母代产能方面，2025 年 10 月协会样本点在产父母代存栏 2307 万套，同比 +2.5%，环比+0.7%；后备父母代种鸡平均存栏量 1532 万套，同比-6.8%，环比 -2.2%。10 月父母代鸡苗价格为 47.79 元/套，最新报价 25 年第 44 周数据为 45.97 元/套。 综合来看，鸡苗端环比上涨，毛鸡养殖端环比下降。10 月毛鸡养殖亏损 1.78 元/羽，环比盈利大幅下降；孵化场盈利 0.65 元/羽，环比盈利大幅扩张。 行业研究 农林牧渔 2025 年 11 月 23 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张皓月 邮箱：zhanghaoyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070009 证券分析师：陈鹏 电话：021-20572579 邮箱：chenpeng1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521080002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) ...

Summary of the Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Agricultural Sector**, specifically the **Pig Farming** and **Poultry Farming** industries, along with **Feed and Animal Health** sub-sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Pig Farming Sector - In Q3 2025, the profitability of the pig farming sector declined significantly, with a **71% year-on-year** and **38% quarter-on-quarter** drop in profits, totaling **CNY 5.54 billion** for 18 listed pig farming companies [2][3][9]. - The average price of live pigs was **CNY 13.8/kg**, while the average cost for most listed companies was between **CNY 13-14/kg**, indicating a challenging margin environment [9][12]. - Major players like **Muyuan** and **Wens** reported combined profits of approximately **CNY 6 billion**, while the remaining 16 companies were in a loss position [9]. - The industry is expected to accelerate the reduction of sow capacity, which may elevate the price center for pigs in 2026 [2][12][13]. - The cash flow situation remains positive, with **CNY 18.1 billion** in operating cash flow for Q3, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of net inflow [10]. Poultry Farming Sector - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a tightening supply of parent stock, particularly for **white feathered chickens**, which is expected to support price increases in 2026 [5][14]. - The **yellow feathered chicken** sector is facing historical lows in parent stock, compounded by ongoing industry losses, setting the stage for potential price increases [5][14]. - The overall revenue for the poultry sector increased by **11% year-on-year**, but net profit fell by **45%** due to low chicken prices [14]. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Sectors - The feed and animal health sectors are showing signs of recovery, with demand improving as livestock numbers stabilize [6][7][17]. - Leading feed companies are expanding overseas, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [6][18]. - The animal health sector reported a **19% year-on-year** revenue increase, with profits rising **76%** due to a low base from the previous year [19]. Additional Important Insights - The average cost of pig farming is projected to be between **CNY 13-14/kg** for 2025, with expectations for 2026 to rise to **CNY 14-16/kg** [12][13]. - The **Haida Group** plans to IPO its overseas assets, which may dilute short-term earnings but is expected to enhance long-term growth potential [18]. - Investment recommendations focus on low-cost leading companies in pig farming like **Muyuan** and **Wens**, as well as smaller quality firms such as **Shennong** and **Dekang** [8][20]. Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on companies with strong cost control and cash flow improvement in the pig farming sector [8][20]. - In the poultry sector, recommendations include **Shennong** for white feathered chickens and **Lihua** for yellow feathered chickens [8][20]. - For feed and animal health, focus on leading companies like **Haida Group** and **Kefei**, as well as those with product advantages in the animal health sector [8][20].

牧业大周期：行业大反转预计在即。1）牛肉与牛奶双品种有望反转：国内 肉牛产能去化级别或及 2019 年猪周期，2025 年已迎来价格拐点，后续 有望持续上涨至 2027 年。国内原奶价格已累计下跌近 4 年，持续亏损 带来产能出清压力，同时肉奶比价已至历史高位，后续有望推动奶牛淘 汰加快，实现"肉奶共振"。2）国内与国外两个市场协同涨价：海外牛 肉价格在主产区减产推动下，已进入上行周期，叠加进口调控，未来国 内进口牛肉预计量减价增。原奶进口方面，全球奶粉持续去库，景气重 回上行通道，目前进口大包粉已失去性价比，后续在国内产能收缩和进 口减量共同推动下，国内原奶供需格局预计改善，价格有望迎来修复。 猪禽养殖链：弱化周期，强化龙头。未来投资将从注重周期节奏转向公司管 理内核，从重视资本开支转向现金流创造。1）生猪：官方产能调控将加速 头部企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩 的背景下，龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。2）禽养殖：供给 波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势 有望实现更高现金流分红回报。3）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分 工明确，饲料龙头凭借技术 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for meat chickens is entering a peak season, providing price support, while egg prices are declining, leading to accelerated culling of laying hens [8] - The report highlights the performance of various poultry segments, including white feathered chickens, yellow feathered chickens, and laying hens, with specific price trends and inventory changes [13][23][31] Summary by Sections 1. White Feathered Chickens - The average sales price for white feathered meat chickens in October 2025 was 6.93 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg month-on-month. The breeding loss was 1.78 yuan per bird, continuing a trend of losses [13] - The price of white feathered chicken seedlings rose to 3.39 yuan each, an increase of 0.58 yuan month-on-month, indicating positive stocking activity ahead of the peak demand season [14] - The total inventory of white feathered grandparent stock was 2.0209 million sets, down 1.30% month-on-month, with a decrease in both breeding and backup stock [14] 2. Yellow Feathered Chickens - The average sales price for medium-speed yellow feathered chickens in October was 12.86 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.03% month-on-month. The demand is supporting price stability [23] - The sales volume of parent yellow feathered chicken seedlings increased by 8.87% month-on-month, while the total inventory of yellow feathered grandparent stock decreased by 2.65% [23] 3. Laying Hens - The average price of laying hen seedlings was 2.80 yuan each, up 7.69% month-on-month, while the wholesale price of eggs dropped to 5.72 yuan/kg, down 20.11% month-on-month [31] - The profit from laying hen farming was -24.44 yuan per bird, a decrease of 26.56 yuan month-on-month, indicating pressure on profitability due to high inventory levels and low egg prices [31] 4. Sales and Revenue Trends - In October, the sales volume of chicken products showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing declines in sales volume but increases in revenue due to higher average prices [43][49] - For example, Xiantan Co. reported a chicken sales volume of 52,900 tons, down 1.37% month-on-month, but an increase in sales revenue to 456 million yuan, up 4.05% month-on-month [43]

Summary of Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural sector is currently undervalued, with a PB percentile ranking low among the 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan index, indicating potential investment opportunities due to low valuations in various sub-sectors [1][3][6] Key Insights and Arguments - **Animal Health Sector**: This sub-sector has seen the highest growth, driven by specific events rather than a broad sector effect, with a 73% increase since September 2024 [4][5] - **Swine Farming**: Expected government interventions to address falling pig prices and production capacity reduction, with a focus on increasing imports of U.S. agricultural products like soybeans and wheat, which could lower feed costs and improve market expectations for swine farming [1][6][8] - **Seed Industry**: Potential investment opportunities driven by policy changes and a rebound in grain prices, particularly during the year-end policy announcement period [1][10] - **Pet Food Industry**: Facing intensified domestic competition and impacts from the U.S.-China tariff war, but leading companies like Guai Bao and Zhong Chong are expected to emerge stronger [1][13] - **Poultry Farming**: The high incidence of avian influenza during the peak season (October to February) may create investment opportunities, particularly in regions like France and the U.S. [2][14] Market Performance - The agricultural sector's performance has been relatively weak, ranking 22nd in terms of price changes since September 2024, but improved to 17th since April 2025 [3] - Specific stocks have shown significant gains, often driven by unique events rather than core business logic, indicating a lack of consistent performance across the sector [5] Future Investment Opportunities - The agricultural sector may benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies and low valuations across sub-sectors, particularly in swine farming, where supply increases, cost reductions, and consumption recovery are anticipated [6][9] - Recommended stocks include leading companies in swine farming like Muyuan and Wens, as well as low-cost or growth-oriented firms [9] Additional Insights - The seed industry may see price recovery due to recent declines in corn prices, which were driven by weather-related issues rather than supply increases [10][11] - The rubber industry is currently stable but faces short-term challenges; however, long-term prospects remain positive [12]

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the livestock sector, particularly in beef and dairy farming, predicting a turning point in the domestic beef cycle by 2025, with prices expected to rise significantly [1][14] - The report recommends a selection of stocks in the livestock and feed sectors, highlighting companies like Yuran Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group as key investment opportunities [1][3] Livestock Sector - The report anticipates a reversal in the beef cycle, with domestic beef prices expected to rise due to a combination of domestic supply adjustments and international price increases [14] - The dairy market is projected to improve, driven by a rising meat-to-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows and enhance profitability for dairy farming companies [14] - Key recommended stocks in the livestock sector include Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu [14][18] Swine Sector - The report highlights a recovery in the swine sector, with a focus on leading companies like DeKang Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery as the market stabilizes [15][19] - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.49 CNY/kg, reflecting a 6% month-on-month increase, while the price of piglets decreased by 9.18% [2][21] - The report notes that the industry is experiencing a rational approach to breeding, with a stable number of breeding sows maintained [21][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is expected to see increased demand, with prices for broiler chickens and chicks rising, indicating a recovery in consumption as the market enters a peak season [34][37] - The report mentions that the supply of yellow-feathered chickens remains low, which may benefit leading producers as domestic demand improves [40][41] - Recommended stocks in the poultry sector include Lihua Stock and Shengnong Development [19] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a growth area, with domestic consumption expected to continue rising, particularly in pet food and healthcare [16] - Key recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet and Reap Bio [16][19] Feed Sector - The feed sector is projected to benefit from a recovery in aquaculture and livestock production, with Haida Group highlighted as a leading player in the feed market [1][19] - The report indicates that the price of corn, a key feed ingredient, is currently at a historical low, providing a strong cost support for feed production [21][22] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have decreased by 5.37% month-on-month [2][21] - The overall agricultural sector is expected to experience a gradual recovery, with specific attention to the dynamics of supply and demand for key commodities [19][22]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, despite ongoing losses in the industry [1][3] - The report highlights a potential acceleration in capacity reduction due to supply pressures and policy guidance [6][19] Group 1: Pig Farming - The number of breeding sows decreased by 0.20% month-on-month in September, with a total of 40.35 million sows reported [20][21] - Pig prices have been on the rise, with the average price for market pigs reaching 12.22 CNY/kg on October 30, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.10% [29][30] - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 89.33 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 179.72 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of October 31 [35][37] Group 2: Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather broilers increased to 7.09 CNY/kg on October 31, marking a week-on-week rise of 3.05% [39][42] - The report notes a significant increase in the number of breeding stock, with a 143.18% month-on-month rise in the number of grandparent stock updated in October [39][40] Group 3: Animal Health - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by a recovery in breeding cycles and an increase in livestock numbers [48] - The report mentions that several companies are actively developing new products, which may enhance growth prospects for the sector [48] Group 4: Seed Industry - The average prices for wheat, soybean meal, and corn have increased, with wheat and soybean meal rising by 0.9% and 1.3% respectively as of October 31 [52][53] - The report emphasizes the importance of food security and the promotion of biotechnology in the seed industry [52][56] Group 5: Pet Industry - Pet food exports amounted to 823 million CNY in September, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.8% [57][60] - Domestic sales of pet food have continued to grow, with a combined growth rate of 3% across major e-commerce platforms in September [60]