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“无退休社会”突袭日本,会是中国未来的样本吗?
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-09 04:52
Core Insights - Japan's "no retirement society" is a reflection of deep-rooted systemic challenges arising from an aging population, economic pressures, cultural norms, and policy enforcement [2][3][4] - The aging population in Japan, with 29.1% aged 65 and older, has led to a significant decline in the working-age population, creating a precarious pension system [2][3] - Economic factors, including a low public pension replacement rate and increasing financial gaps for retirees, compel many elderly individuals to remain in the workforce [3][5] - Cultural perceptions of retirement as a form of social death drive older individuals to seek continued employment, even when not financially necessary [3][4] - Policy measures have progressively raised the retirement age, pushing the workforce participation of older individuals [3][4] Japan's Dilemma - The "no retirement society" is not an ideal solution to aging challenges but a response to labor shortages and pension pressures, leading to deeper structural issues [5][6] - Health risks associated with older workers in physically demanding jobs raise concerns about their well-being and safety [6][7] - Many elderly workers are forced into low-paying, unstable jobs, perpetuating a cycle of poverty among the aging population [6][7] - The increasing presence of older workers in the labor market creates intergenerational tensions and concerns about job competition among younger workers [6][7] - Over-reliance on older labor may stifle innovation and dynamism in the economy, as decision-making may become more conservative [6][7] China's Path Forward - China faces a similar aging trend, with projections indicating that the population aged 60 and above will exceed 400 million by 2035, necessitating reforms in the pension system [8][9] - Unlike Japan, China's economic context and technological advancements may provide opportunities to mitigate the impacts of aging through automation and industry upgrades [8][9] - The traditional family support system in China may offer a buffer against the challenges of an aging population, unlike Japan's experience [8][9] - The key question for China is whether it can build a resilient system to address aging before the demographic wave fully arrives, focusing on pension reforms and quality job creation for older individuals [9][10] - Solutions should prioritize a balanced approach that respects individual choices, enhances social security, and leverages technology to improve productivity [10][11]