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芒果超媒(300413):广告业务回暖,新综上线+广电政策支持多重催化
Guotou Securities· 2025-10-27 11:07
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 33.95 CNY [4][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue was 3.099 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 252 million CNY, down 33.47% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 9.063 billion CNY, a decline of 11.82%, and net profit was 1.016 billion CNY, down 29.67% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a strategic contraction in traditional e-commerce, although the core business remained stable with a recovery in advertising revenue. Increased investment in quality content and R&D has led to higher costs, resulting in a gross margin of 27.59%, down 2.19 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company has launched a new major singing talent show, "Voice of the Future 2025," which is expected to drive growth in advertising and membership revenues in Q4 2025. The show is a collaboration with multiple major broadcasting platforms, aiming to replicate the success of previous hit shows [2]. - Supportive broadcasting policies are expected to enhance the content production segment, with a significant number of long-form content projects in the pipeline, which may accelerate their release and strengthen the platform's content supply capabilities [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 13.485 billion CNY, 14.830 billion CNY, and 16.897 billion CNY, respectively. Net profit forecasts are set at 1.688 billion CNY, 1.813 billion CNY, and 2.167 billion CNY for the same period, with corresponding EPS of 0.90 CNY, 0.97 CNY, and 1.16 CNY [3][8]. - The company is positioned as a leading content platform with a rich reserve of variety shows and series, which are expected to contribute positively to performance in the coming years [3].