2025 年 10 月 27 日 芒果超媒(300413.SZ) 广告业务回暖，新综上线+广电政策支 持多重催化 事件： 公司发布 2025 年三季报，2025Q3 单季度实现收入 30.99 亿，同增- 6.58%；实现归母净利润为 2.52 亿，同增-33.47%。2025 年前三季度 实现收入 90.63 亿，同增-11.82%；实现归母净利润为 10.16 亿，同 增-29.67%。 短期业绩承压，广告业务有所回暖。2025Q3 单季度收入同降 6.58%，主要系战略收缩传统电商业务所致，核心业务同比基本持 平，其中广告业务回暖修复。公司加大对优质内容、研发投入， 导致成本、费用有所上升，2025Q3 毛利率为 27.59%，同比下降 2.19pct；2025Q3 销售费用率、管理费用率、研发费用率分别为 17.73%、3.34%、2.10%，同比提升 3.96pct、1.57pct、0.95pct。 进而利润端有所承压，2025Q3 归母净利润同降 33.47%。 《声鸣远扬 2025》启动，有望拉动广告及会员收入增长。公司 打造现象级综艺节目能力持续得到验证，2025Q4 重磅歌唱人才选 拨类节目 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Mango Excellent Media (300413) [1] Core Views - The company is currently under pressure, with a focus on the pace of content release and the implementation of the new broadcasting regulations [1] - Short-term performance is impacted by increased content investment and weak macroeconomic conditions, but there is optimism for medium to long-term growth driven by quality content strategies [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 14,080 million, with a decline to 12,616 million in 2025, followed by a recovery to 13,363 million in 2026 and 14,317 million in 2027 [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,364 million in 2024, increasing to 1,431 million in 2025, 1,764 million in 2026, and 2,128 million in 2027 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.73 yuan in 2024, rising to 0.76 yuan in 2025, 0.94 yuan in 2026, and 1.14 yuan in 2027 [2] - The target price is set at 30.6 yuan per share, with the current price at 25.60 yuan [2] Revenue and Profit Trends - The company reported a revenue of 5,964 million for the first half of 2025, a year-over-year decline of 14.3%, with a net profit of 763 million, down 28% year-over-year [7] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 3,063 million, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 15.7% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.6% [7] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 27%, down 2.37 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to increased content costs [7] Strategic Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing its content offerings, with a significant investment in high-quality productions expected to drive long-term growth [7] - The new broadcasting regulations are anticipated to benefit content innovation and demand stimulation in the medium to long term [7] - The company is also exploring new growth areas such as international expansion, AI, and intellectual property [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 26 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the film and television industry, with strong content and distribution capabilities. It is expected to continue its efforts in content innovation, particularly in variety shows and high-quality dramas [2]. - Cultural export is anticipated to be a significant growth driver for the company, with 2025 marking the first year of the "Mango Going Global Three-Year Action Plan" (2025-2027) [2]. - The company is expected to leverage new technologies, particularly AI, to reshape the content industry, which may lead to new growth opportunities [2]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 14.08 billion CNY and a net profit of 1.364 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.75% and 61.63%, respectively. The non-recurring net profit was 1.645 billion CNY, showing a slight decline of 2.99% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.9 billion CNY and a net profit of 379 million CNY, with year-on-year decreases of 12.76% and 19.8%, respectively [1]. - The revenue contributions from Mango TV, content production and operation, and content e-commerce have changed slightly, with Mango TV's effective membership growing to 73.31 million and revenue increasing to 5.148 billion CNY [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.285 billion CNY, 16.411 billion CNY, and 18.563 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.952 billion CNY, 2.443 billion CNY, and 2.816 billion CNY [2][4].