Core Viewpoint - The trend of "anti-involution" is emerging in ancient costume dramas, with characters adopting a more relaxed and carefree attitude, moving away from traditional heroic narratives towards a "lying flat" philosophy [1][3][4]. Group 1: Character Evolution - The protagonists in recent ancient costume dramas are increasingly portrayed as "not striving," reflecting a shift from ambitious characters to those who embrace a laid-back lifestyle [5][9]. - This new character archetype, often referred to as "lazy fish," embodies a paradox where they appear unmotivated but possess hidden strengths, akin to a seemingly carefree student who excels academically [5][8]. - The "lazy fish" narrative allows for low-energy storytelling that emphasizes sudden bursts of capability rather than a long, arduous journey [8][9]. Group 2: Emotional Resonance - The rise of "lazy fish" characters aligns with contemporary societal pressures, providing audiences with a form of emotional release and self-reflection [3][12]. - Viewers are increasingly drawn to stories that offer a sense of comfort and happiness, moving away from heavy themes towards narratives that celebrate individual experiences and emotional fulfillment [15][19]. - The shift in audience preferences is evident in the success of light-hearted and relatable ancient dramas, which resonate with the current desire for positive emotional experiences [13][15]. Group 3: Narrative Structure - The narrative structure of ancient costume dramas is evolving to focus on individual experiences rather than grand heroic quests, allowing for a more grounded and relatable storytelling approach [19]. - The concept of "returning home" in narratives reflects a broader cultural questioning of traditional success metrics, paralleling the characters' journeys in ancient settings [12][19]. - The balance between relaxation and character growth is crucial, as creators seek to explore themes of self-discovery and personal choice within the context of ancient narratives [18][19].

Company Update - The 2025 Mango Autumn Investment Conference was held in Changsha on October 28, 2025, under the theme "Sound Resonates Far and Wide, Ecology Revitalizes" [1] - The company announced its core content and key development projects for Hunan TV and Mango TV for 2025-2026, including over 80 major dramas and more than 70 key variety shows, as well as resources for galas, short dramas, and micro-variety shows [1] Innovation and IP Ecosystem - The company emphasized its commitment to innovation-driven strategies and building a full-link IP ecosystem, focusing on content e-commerce and trendy derivative products [2] - The company aims to enhance the value of quality content IP, which is expected to support the construction of a more comprehensive IP ecosystem based on drama, variety content, and entertainment industry resources [2] Drama Series Focus - The company plans to invest in high-quality drama series, with a focus on the potential of exclusive dramas [2] - The drama lineup for Q4 2025 to 2026 includes titles such as "Salmon Ascension," "Yuming Tea Bone," "Taiping Year," and others, indicating a continued emphasis on premium content [2] - The company anticipates healthy growth in membership revenue, with content cost investments stabilizing, and expects to leverage new broadcasting regulations for more precise content investments [2] Variety Shows and Advertising - The preliminary rounds of the variety show "Sound Resonates Far and Wide 2025" aired on October 28, 2025, with the total sponsorship from Dove [3] - The show will have concentrated broadcasts from October 28-30 and November 4-6, with the finals starting on November 9 [3] - The company has additional variety shows in its pipeline, which are expected to generate more traffic and advertising revenue, especially in a cautious advertising budget environment [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its net profit forecasts of 1.1 billion and 1.74 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] - The current price corresponds to P/E ratios of 48.7 and 30.8 for 2025 and 2026 [4] - The target price remains at 35 yuan, implying a 21.8% upside potential based on a 38 times P/E for 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 30.08 CNY, based on a 32x PE for 2026 [4][6]. Core Views - The company's popular variety IP matrix continues to expand, and the new broadcasting policies are expected to provide long-term positive momentum for the industry, leading to a gradual recovery in ROI [4]. - The advertising revenue is showing signs of recovery, with expectations that the new project "Voice of the Future" will enhance the variety pipeline [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 31 billion CNY in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, primarily due to a decline in traditional e-commerce [9]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 27.6%, down by 2.2 percentage points, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 250 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 33.5% [9]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 1.216 billion CNY, 1.754 billion CNY, and 1.940 billion CNY, respectively [4]. Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 14.628 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, while the 2024 revenue is expected to decline by 3.7% to 14.080 billion CNY [10]. - The net profit margin for 2023 is 24.3%, which is expected to drop to 9.7% in 2024 before recovering to 12.8% by 2027 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.65 CNY, with a gradual increase to 1.04 CNY by 2027 [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating its strategy for micro-short dramas and has launched an "AIGC Micro-Short Drama Creator Ecosystem Plan" to support creators with resources and funding [9]. - The upcoming project "Voice of the Future," set to premiere on October 28, 2025, is anticipated to become a key support project for the company [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.063 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.016 billion yuan, down 29.67% year-on-year [6]. - The advertising business showed signs of recovery, with a notable increase in user growth for Mango TV, which saw a monthly active user growth of approximately 11.08% year-on-year [6]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its content offerings, with several popular shows and series expected to launch in Q4 2025, which are anticipated to drive further growth [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.099 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.58% year-on-year, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 33.47% year-on-year [6]. - The gross margin decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 26.91% due to increased costs associated with content and technology investments [6]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 674 million yuan, a significant increase of 307.14% year-on-year, indicating strong operational cash generation [6]. User and Content Strategy - The company has a robust content pipeline, with several successful shows in Q3 2025, including popular variety shows and dramas that ranked highly in viewership [6]. - The company is accelerating its strategy for micro-short dramas and has initiated a plan to co-create a thousand IPs, collaborating with leading content platforms [6]. Future Projections - The report projects revenues of 12.953 billion yuan, 13.731 billion yuan, and 14.417 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.307 billion yuan, 1.854 billion yuan, and 2.252 billion yuan for the same years [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 33.95 CNY [4][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue was 3.099 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 252 million CNY, down 33.47% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 9.063 billion CNY, a decline of 11.82%, and net profit was 1.016 billion CNY, down 29.67% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a strategic contraction in traditional e-commerce, although the core business remained stable with a recovery in advertising revenue. Increased investment in quality content and R&D has led to higher costs, resulting in a gross margin of 27.59%, down 2.19 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company has launched a new major singing talent show, "Voice of the Future 2025," which is expected to drive growth in advertising and membership revenues in Q4 2025. The show is a collaboration with multiple major broadcasting platforms, aiming to replicate the success of previous hit shows [2]. - Supportive broadcasting policies are expected to enhance the content production segment, with a significant number of long-form content projects in the pipeline, which may accelerate their release and strengthen the platform's content supply capabilities [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 13.485 billion CNY, 14.830 billion CNY, and 16.897 billion CNY, respectively. Net profit forecasts are set at 1.688 billion CNY, 1.813 billion CNY, and 2.167 billion CNY for the same period, with corresponding EPS of 0.90 CNY, 0.97 CNY, and 1.16 CNY [3][8]. - The company is positioned as a leading content platform with a rich reserve of variety shows and series, which are expected to contribute positively to performance in the coming years [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q2 and H1 of 2025, falling short of expectations, indicating challenges in its business operations and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and a net profit of 385 million yuan, down 35% [1]. - For H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.96 billion yuan, a decline of 14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 760 million yuan, down 28% [1]. - Membership revenue showed slight growth in H1 2025, reaching 2.5 billion yuan, but faced a decline in Q2 due to content scheduling issues [2]. - Advertising revenue in H1 2025 was 1.6 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in this segment [2]. - The operator business stabilized with revenue of 800 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a growth of approximately 7% [2]. - E-commerce revenue fell significantly by 67% to 450 million yuan in H1 2025, although gross margin improved by 16 percentage points to 19% [2]. Group 2: Operational Insights - Increased content investment has led to higher costs, with operating expenses rising by 3% year-on-year, while the company maintains control over expenses [2]. - The long video business saw a slight revenue decline of 1.5% year-on-year, with operating costs increasing by 12%, primarily due to content production and traffic costs [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The short-term market expectations for the video industry are pessimistic, but there are signs of improvement in content cycles and regulatory environments [3]. - Upcoming projects include the talent show "Voice of the Future" and several new series, indicating a focus on content development [3]. - Recent regulatory measures aim to enhance content supply and address core issues in domestic series production, which could positively impact long video platforms [3]. - The company is exploring IP development and international expansion, with potential for improved advertising performance if macroeconomic conditions recover [3]. Group 4: Investment Rating - The company maintains a buy rating despite challenges in advertising and increased content investment, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4]. - The target price is set at a PE ratio of 35x for 2025, suggesting a potential market value of 66.6 billion yuan, representing a 31% upside from the current price [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company has a substantial reserve of series projects and has signed multiple cultural tourism contracts, with several major films expected to be released during the summer season, leading to a continued rapid growth in revenue [1] Group 1: Investment Highlights - The company is building a foundation with series and cultural tourism, while films provide performance elasticity. In 2025, the company has a large number of series in reserve, with some top series already recommended by major video platforms like Mango TV. The cultural tourism business, based on three operational scenic spots, has signed multiple new projects, which are expected to bring stable revenue growth. However, the film business, which began to ramp up in 2021, has underperformed, with several films like "Lion Boy 2" failing to achieve expected box office results, negatively impacting the company's performance. As a result, the EPS forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down to 0.15/0.19/0.22 yuan, compared to the previous forecast of 0.47/0.55 yuan for 2025/2026. The target price has been adjusted to 6.90 yuan from 7.84 yuan, while maintaining a "buy" rating [2][3][4] Group 2: Series and Film Releases - 2025 is expected to be a significant year for the company in terms of series, with nearly ten series anticipated to be aired. According to the company's 2024 annual report, series expected to be released in 2025 include "Criminal Scene" (aired on February 20, 2025), "Silent Echo," "Ordinary Heroes," "Synthesis Order," "Happy," "Mars Orphan," "City Builders," "Hunting Heart," and "Salted Fish Ascension." The company has also announced a change in funding allocation, redirecting 85.44 million yuan initially intended for the film "Space Spring Transportation" to the series "Salted Fish Ascension," indicating its importance. The revenue from confirmed series in 2024 exceeded 400 million yuan, and if the aforementioned series are released in 2025, the company’s series revenue is expected to achieve year-on-year growth [3][4] Group 3: Cultural Tourism Business - Major films are expected to be released within the year, and the cultural tourism business is progressing steadily. According to the company's 2024 annual report, the main films in reserve include "Dunhuang Heroes," "Gate of the Desert," "Bright Future," "Lying Flat Club," and "Story of X," which have completed filming and are in post-production and review stages, suggesting they are likely to be released in 2025. In addition to the three operational districts "Yongxing Fang," "Chang'an Twelve Hours," and "Xiangyang Guanjia Lane," new contracts have been signed for projects in Jiangsu Zhouzhuang, Guilin Lashan, Xiangyang Tiefo Temple, Daliang Qinghui Garden, and Anyang Kuixing Pavilion, which are expected to become important growth points for the company outside of its film and television content [4]