事件： 公司25Q2 实现营业收入30.6 亿元，同比下滑16%；归母净利润3.85 亿，同比下滑35%，低预期。25H1 实现营业收入59.6 亿，同比下滑14%；归母净利润7.6 亿，同比下滑28%。 投资要点： 25H1 经营回顾：根据公司财报，1）会员收入受内容排期波动。25H1 收入25 亿元，同比微增。Q1 在 《国色芳华》《五福临门》等带动下会员收入增长，Q2 内容平淡导致下滑。 2）广告仍然承压。25H1 收入16 亿元，同比下滑8%。《歌手》今年改由网端主导，提供部分Q2 增 量；整体仍需跟踪广告主投放意愿。3）运营商业务已企稳。25H1 收入8 亿元，同比增长约7%。4）电 商业务收入下滑盈利能力提升。内容电商25H1 收入4.5 亿元，同比下滑67%，快乐购和小芒均下滑；但 毛利率提升16pct 至19%。小芒25H1 已实现盈利。5）内容投入增加导致成本增加，费用仍控制。长视 频商业模式有经营杠杆，25H1芒果TV 互联网视频业务收入同比下滑1.5%，营业成本同比增加12%（主 要为内容制作成本，其次流量成本），导致利润下滑。三费绝对值同比增3%，仍在控制。 视频主业短期基本面市场预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has a substantial reserve of series projects and has signed multiple cultural tourism contracts, with several major films expected to be released during the summer season, leading to a continued rapid growth in revenue [1] Group 1: Investment Highlights - The company is building a foundation with series and cultural tourism, while films provide performance elasticity. In 2025, the company has a large number of series in reserve, with some top series already recommended by major video platforms like Mango TV. The cultural tourism business, based on three operational scenic spots, has signed multiple new projects, which are expected to bring stable revenue growth. However, the film business, which began to ramp up in 2021, has underperformed, with several films like "Lion Boy 2" failing to achieve expected box office results, negatively impacting the company's performance. As a result, the EPS forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down to 0.15/0.19/0.22 yuan, compared to the previous forecast of 0.47/0.55 yuan for 2025/2026. The target price has been adjusted to 6.90 yuan from 7.84 yuan, while maintaining a "buy" rating [2][3][4] Group 2: Series and Film Releases - 2025 is expected to be a significant year for the company in terms of series, with nearly ten series anticipated to be aired. According to the company's 2024 annual report, series expected to be released in 2025 include "Criminal Scene" (aired on February 20, 2025), "Silent Echo," "Ordinary Heroes," "Synthesis Order," "Happy," "Mars Orphan," "City Builders," "Hunting Heart," and "Salted Fish Ascension." The company has also announced a change in funding allocation, redirecting 85.44 million yuan initially intended for the film "Space Spring Transportation" to the series "Salted Fish Ascension," indicating its importance. The revenue from confirmed series in 2024 exceeded 400 million yuan, and if the aforementioned series are released in 2025, the company’s series revenue is expected to achieve year-on-year growth [3][4] Group 3: Cultural Tourism Business - Major films are expected to be released within the year, and the cultural tourism business is progressing steadily. According to the company's 2024 annual report, the main films in reserve include "Dunhuang Heroes," "Gate of the Desert," "Bright Future," "Lying Flat Club," and "Story of X," which have completed filming and are in post-production and review stages, suggesting they are likely to be released in 2025. In addition to the three operational districts "Yongxing Fang," "Chang'an Twelve Hours," and "Xiangyang Guanjia Lane," new contracts have been signed for projects in Jiangsu Zhouzhuang, Guilin Lashan, Xiangyang Tiefo Temple, Daliang Qinghui Garden, and Anyang Kuixing Pavilion, which are expected to become important growth points for the company outside of its film and television content [4]