Core Insights - The heavy truck market in China has shown a strong recovery, with cumulative sales exceeding 820,000 units by September this year, indicating a likely annual sales target of over 1 million units [1] - Policy support has been a key driver of this recovery, with various incentives introduced to encourage the replacement of old vehicles and support for natural gas and new energy heavy trucks [1][2] - However, the current growth is largely driven by policy-induced demand, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth without a solid economic foundation [2] Market Dynamics - The increase in heavy truck sales contrasts sharply with the challenges faced in the road logistics market, such as low freight rates and intensified competition, suggesting that the demand expansion is not based on genuine economic recovery [2] - The reliance on policy support for growth may lead to a potential decline in demand once these incentives are withdrawn, highlighting the need for the industry to shift from policy dependence to internal growth drivers [2][3] Industry Recommendations - The heavy truck industry must focus on enhancing technological innovation, product competitiveness, and risk management capabilities to achieve high-quality development rather than merely expanding sales [3] - Policymakers should balance short-term stimulus with long-term guidance, transitioning support from direct purchase subsidies to fostering industry transformation and ecosystem development [3][4] Strategic Considerations - Logistics companies and individual truck owners should make informed decisions based on total lifecycle costs rather than solely on subsidy amounts, considering vehicle performance, energy costs, and maintenance [4] - The heavy truck market serves as a barometer for the macroeconomy, and while reaching the sales milestone of 1 million units is commendable, the industry must maintain a rational perspective on sustainable growth [4][5] Conclusion - The heavy truck industry is at a critical juncture, requiring a shift from scale-driven growth to quality-focused development, with an emphasis on innovation and market competitiveness to ensure long-term success [5]