商用车行业 2026 年度投资策略： "以旧换新"政策延续 2026 置换+出口需求主导 20260227 摘要 2025 年重卡行业总量复苏，受益于以旧换新政策，全年批发销量达 114.4 万辆，同比增长 26.8%；上牌量 79.9 万辆，同比增长 32.7%， 其中物流车需求增长显著，但三季度价格竞争加剧，影响盈利能力。 2025 年重卡出口 34.1 万辆，同比增长 17.4%，东南亚、中东和非洲 是主要增长区域，其中尼日利亚增幅显著，但俄罗斯出口大幅下滑。中 国重汽市占率领先，行业 CR4 维持高位。 2025 年重卡燃料结构持续演变，柴油车需求下降，天然气重卡渗透率 企稳回升，新能源重卡销量达 22.9 万辆，同比增长 182%，渗透率提 升至 28.8%，电动化是主要技术路线。 2026 年重卡行业预计内需在外需双轮驱动下持续向上，以旧换新政策 延续，国五车辆进入报废期，东南亚、中东、非洲市场加速渗透，估值 体系有望重塑。 2025 年客车行业进入"内需筑底+出口高增"新周期，全年大中客批发 销量 12.2 万辆，同比增长 5%；出口 5.9 万辆，同比增长 34.6%，成 为增长主导力量。新能 ...

2026 年 03 月 01 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟 -行业比较周跟踪（20260223-20260301） 本期投资提示: 申万宏源研究微信服务号 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 一、Ａ 股本周估值（截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日) 1) 指数及板块估值比较: ● 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 22.8 倍，PB 为 1.9 倍，处于历史 83%和 53%分位; √ √ 上证 50 PE 为 11.5 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 58%和 37%分位; ...

□ 胡立彪 2月22日（农历正月初六），天津的许先生一家没有去热门景区扎堆，而是驱车数百公里，走进了山东 省聊城市东阿阿胶股份有限公司的生产厂区。在探秘长廊里，巨大的不锈钢化皮机取代了传统熬胶的敞 口大锅，机械臂在智能化生产线上灵活抓取，视觉检测系统为每一块即将出厂的阿胶进行"全身体检"。 他的儿子感叹："像是在看纪录片，又像是在看科幻片，原来老字号也可以这样新潮。" 转自：中国质量报 观象台 工业旅游的核心魅力，在于其拥有真实性的力量。与精心编排的主题公园不同，工业遗址与生产线承载 着真实的历史记忆与技术变迁。正如首钢园的冷却塔见证了钢铁巨兽的转型，五峰精制茶厂的砖墙诉说 着万里茶道的兴衰，这些"工业化石"让游客得以触摸到城市发展的年轮。德国鲁尔区将废弃矿坑改造为 景观公园，英国铁桥峡谷重现工业革命的轰鸣，这些案例无不证明：工业遗产不是城市发展的包袱，而 是独特的文化资本。当游客漫步在保留着原始风貌的车间，指尖划过斑驳的机器，透过导游的讲解，他 们还能听到一个时代的心跳。 工业旅游的深层价值，在于它让"中国制造"从抽象概念变为可感知的实体。在湖南长沙三一智联重卡产 业园，184台机器人在3D视觉引导下完成高 ...

Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of the supply-demand balance in the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting that macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions will significantly influence metal prices [2][3] - In the precious metals segment, a decline in risk appetite has led to price adjustments, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments on a strong dollar and expectations of a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet contributing to this trend [2] - For copper, while macro pressures persist, the establishment of a strategic reserve for copper concentrate by the domestic non-ferrous industry association is expected to provide support against overseas supply disruptions [3] Group 2: Energy Metals - The lithium carbonate market has seen strong demand, with a continuous reduction in inventory over the past four weeks, although there are concerns regarding the resumption of production at key mines in Jiangxi [4] - The cobalt sector is facing high prices due to tight raw material supplies, while companies are extending their reach into the electric vehicle supply chain to enhance competitive advantages [4] Group 3: Rare Earths and Strategic Metals - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide continues to rise due to a tight supply-demand balance, with pre-holiday stocking needs supporting price increases [5] - Tungsten prices are experiencing upward pressure driven by supply-demand dynamics, with leading companies raising long-term contract prices significantly [5] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The heavy truck market in January showed strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 46% in domestic heavy truck sales, driven by the successful implementation of the "old-for-new" policy [14][16] - The report forecasts that heavy truck sales in 2026 will reach 760,000 units, with a slight year-on-year decline of 5.3%, while wholesale sales are expected to grow by 1.5% [15] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry - The demand for anticoagulant drugs is expanding, with the global market size reaching $52.9 billion in 2023 and projected to exceed $110 billion by 2033, driven by aging populations and increasing cardiovascular disease prevalence [11][12] - The report highlights the emergence of next-generation anticoagulants targeting Factor XI (FXI) as a promising area for development, with several candidates entering clinical trials [12][13] Group 6: Company-Specific Insights - The report on China Giant Glass indicates that the recent price increases in traditional electronic fabrics are expected to significantly enhance the company's profit margins, with a target price adjustment reflecting this trend [27][30] - 聚杰微纤 is positioned to benefit from its transition to high-end industrial applications, with projections indicating substantial revenue growth driven by technological advancements in the ultra-fine fiber sector [31][32]

会议助理 1: 在会议开始前，我们即是各位投资者，在主讲嘉宾发言结束后，将留有提问时间。 好的，各位机构投资者大家晚上好，我是国海证券汽车行业的首席分析师戴畅。非常感谢 大家在今天晚上 8:30 的时间加入到我们的电话会议，电话会，电话会议当中。今天我们 的会议是重卡系列，就是整个重卡的高频紧急做的一个分析，包括后续的展望。那跟我一 起的还有我的同事，重卡的资深分析师徐明爽。那重卡这个板块的话，其实我们是持续的 看好的。在我们之前，去年年底发布的 2026 年年度策略里面，我们看好 2026 年四个方 向的机会，包括乘用车里面的超豪华推荐这个江淮汽车，前期的话我们也发布了超豪华的 深度行业报告。 那第二个的话，就是包括重卡整个板块的全面的看好。因为整个我觉得整个重卡 2020 年 的北塔应该会再次的超预期，并且重卡里面的相应的公司，除了重卡本身业务以外，也逐 步的在向一些 AIGC 的细分领域去拓展。这使得板块更加具备一些可比一些可塑性，一些 可看可可可以去关注的亮点。那第三个方向的话是机器人，第四个方向是智能驾驶，你的 智能座舱。就是高通的智能座舱芯片升级带来机会。那这一块的话，我们在 1 月份的时候 也发 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the heavy truck industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market benchmark [4]. Core Insights - In January, domestic heavy truck sales reached 105,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 46% and a month-on-month increase of 3% [2][4]. - The sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks in January were 19,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 98% and a month-on-month growth of 50% [2][4]. - The sales of domestic new energy heavy trucks in January were 20,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 102% but a month-on-month decrease of 24% [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the heavy truck sales in China for 2026 will reach 760,000 units, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while wholesale sales are expected to reach 1.16 million units, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Sales Performance - January's heavy truck sales were driven by corporate demand, with major manufacturers achieving good completion rates for their annual targets, leading to a portion of sales being carried over into 2026 [4]. - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in January was 18%, with significant growth expected due to lower operating costs for vehicles with high annual mileage [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks was 19% in January, with expectations for continued growth as technology matures and costs decrease [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Motor, CIMC Vehicles, and FAW Jiefang, all rated as "Overweight" [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the heavy truck industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market benchmark [4]. Core Insights - In January, domestic heavy truck sales reached 105,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 46% and a month-on-month increase of 3% [2][4]. - The sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks in January were 19,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 98% and a month-on-month growth of 50% [2][4]. - The sales of domestic new energy heavy trucks in January were 20,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 102% but a month-on-month decrease of 24% [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the domestic heavy truck sales in 2026 will reach 760,000 units, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while wholesale sales are expected to reach 1.16 million units, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Sales Performance - January's heavy truck sales were driven by corporate demand, with major manufacturers achieving good completion rates for their annual targets, leading to a portion of sales being carried over into 2026 [4]. - The report highlights that the January sales performance is crucial for boosting confidence among dealers and supply chain partners ahead of the traditional sales peak after the Spring Festival [4]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in January was 18%, with a significant increase in sales driven by lower operating costs for vehicles with high annual mileage [4]. - The report suggests that the penetration of natural gas heavy trucks is likely to increase further due to large-scale equipment renewal policies [4]. New Energy Heavy Trucks - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in January was 19%, with the total cost of ownership (TCO) being optimal for annual mileage between 45,000 to 100,000 kilometers [4]. - The report indicates that as technology matures and costs decrease, new energy heavy trucks are expected to have intrinsic growth momentum, with continued focus on the implementation of replacement policies [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Motor, CIMC Vehicles, and FAW Jiefang, all rated as "Overweight" [4][5].

小挖产线已进入全面爬坡阶段，海外市场持续高 增长；公司1月销售继续实现增长，出口业务连续 21年稳居行业首位——0223调研日报 2026/02/23 16:13 今日内容： 中联重科：小挖产线已进入全面爬坡阶段，海外市场持续高增长 【小挖产线已进入全面爬坡阶段】 公司2025年建成紧凑型机型新产线，涵盖小型挖机、滑移装载机、轮式挖掘机，该产线具备 全球领先的生产制造能力，已进入产能全面爬升阶段，小挖产品质量、一致性显著提升，制 造成本稳步下降，有效支撑公司小挖全球市场发展战略。 从行业情况来看，未来国内小挖销售量占挖机总销售量的比例预计会持续维持在高位，同时 小挖产品也受海外市场青睐。2026年公司将进一步加快推进小型挖机市场破局，打造土方机 械板块增长引擎。 【海外市场持续高增长】 2026年将重点布局西欧、澳洲等高端市场，研发更多符合当地法规和使用习惯的产品，上述 区域海外网点投入将对公司业绩提升提供增量支撑。除此以外，非洲、拉美等区域经过此前2- 3年持续投入已进入收获期，矿山开拓需求持续增长，中东、东南亚等区域基础设施建设需求 持续增长。 【农业机械获得行业客户特别关注】 全球农机市场规模约为1万亿 ...

其中，重卡1月销量为10.54万辆，环比增长2.58%，同比增长45.98%，迎来新年"开门红"。 中国汽车工业协会发布的产销数据显示，2026年1月，货车销量达32.35万辆，环比下降10.4%，同比增长27.92%。 从整体销量来看，1月重卡销量105352辆，实现同环比双增。聚焦Top10销量，中国重汽和一汽解放两家企业销量超过2万辆，分别为29114和20509辆，位 居第一梯队。Top3~5的企业销量超过1万辆，相邻名次销量差距1000辆左右，梯队差距不明显。Top10后三位销量不足1000辆。值得注意的是，山东雷驰 以791辆的成绩再次跻身前十，重卡新势力企业实力不容小觑。 从环比变化来看，整体重卡销量环比微增2.58%，略好于去年底。Top10企业"5增5降"。其中，奇瑞汽车增幅最高，达到68.85%；另外，福田汽车和一汽 解放的环比增幅也超过30%。5家环比下降的企业中，徐工汽车和山东雷驰下降幅度明显，分别达到27.27%和26.69%。 从整体销量来看，1月重卡销量105352辆，实现同环比双增。聚焦Top10销量，中国重汽和一汽解放两家企业销量超过2万辆，分别为29114和20509辆，位 ...

【商用车新网原创】 中国汽车工业协会发布的产销数据显示，2026年1月，货车销量达32.35万辆，环比下降10.4%，同比增长27.92%。 其中，重卡1月销量为10.54万辆，环比增长2.58%，同比增长45.98%，迎来新年"开门红"。 从整体销量来看，1月重卡销量105352辆，实现同环比双增。聚焦Top10销量，中国重汽和一汽解放两家企业销量超过2万辆，分别为29114和20509辆，位 居第一梯队。Top3~5的企业销量超过1万辆，相邻名次销量差距1000辆左右，梯队差距不明显。Top10后三位销量不足1000辆。值得注意的是，山东雷驰 以791辆的成绩再次跻身前十，重卡新势力企业实力不容小觑。 从环比变化来看，整体重卡销量环比微增2.58%，略好于去年底。Top10企业"5增5降"。其中，奇瑞汽车增幅最高，达到68.85%；另外，福田汽车和一汽 解放的环比增幅也超过30%。5家环比下降的企业中，徐工汽车和山东雷驰下降幅度明显，分别达到27.27%和26.69%。 从同比变化角度分析，Top10企业"8增1降"（山东雷驰同期数据缺失），徐工汽车增幅最大，达到95.12%；福田汽车和东风汽车的增幅超过 ...