11月17-18日，中国汽车工业咨询委员会专家小组（以下简称"中汽咨询委"）赴陕汽集团、法士特集团调研考察，先后走进陕汽总装配厂、天行健车联 网体验中心，以及法士特数字运营体验中心、高智新智慧工厂等核心场景，深切感受两家企业的智能制造实力与创新活力。期间，专家小组还与两家企业高 层领导进行座谈，围绕产业趋势、高质量发展路径等议题深入交流，并结合实地见闻献智献策。 在陕汽总装车间，机械臂精准舞动、多能工默契补位，每6分钟就有1辆重卡下线；在法士特高智新智慧工厂，数字孪生技术实时映射全生产流 程，黑灯车间实现无人化精准作业…… 01 陕汽打造"百年老店" 铸就商用车强国"硬核"担当 中国汽车工业咨询委员会主任、北汽集团原董事长安庆衡评价，陕汽是中国商用车强国的"硬核"担当，既是"军车标杆"，也是"中国新能源重卡的引领 者"。其成功经验为中国汽车产业高质量发展提供重要启示：坚持自主创新与开放合作相结合、前瞻布局与持续投入相统一、军工品质与市场需求相对接以 及产业升级与商业模式创新相促进。 中国汽车工业咨询委员会副主任、中国汽车工程学会名誉理事长付于武指出，陕汽是从山沟闯出来的创新创业企业，在激烈竞争中坚守文化根基与 ...

Group 1: Overall Operational Performance - In October 2025, China's heavy truck market sold a total of 18,10,10.62 thousand units, with a year-on-year growth of 60% and a month-on-month increase of 1% [2][3] - Cumulative sales from January to October 2025 reached a total of 1,10 thousand units, representing a year-on-year increase of 92.90% [2][3] - The company has achieved better growth compared to the industry average, with a robust order backlog [2] Group 2: Export Performance - The company's products are primarily exported through Sinotruk International, maintaining a strong growth trend in exports [3] - Key export markets include Africa, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, covering over 150 countries and regions [3] Group 3: New Energy Heavy Truck Development - In 2025, cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks in China reached 15.78 thousand units, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 178% [3] - The company is capitalizing on market opportunities in the new energy sector, with growth rates exceeding the industry average [3] - Future strategies include focusing on sustainable development in the new energy sector, aligning with policy and technological trends [3]

Core Insights - Foton Motor has outlined its global strategy focusing on brand globalization, emphasizing the transition towards green and intelligent commercial vehicles in the industry [1][3] Group 1: Industry Trends - The commercial vehicle industry is shifting from "incremental expansion" to high-quality development, with a notable increase in the penetration of new energy vehicles and accelerated intelligent development [3] - The industry is characterized by a multi-energy approach, with Foton adopting a technology route that includes pure electric, hybrid, and hydrogen fuel [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Foton's electric motor efficiency reaches a peak of 97.7%, with hybrid technology covering 12 typical working conditions and a demonstration scale of 3,600 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles [3] - The company is developing a dedicated platform for new energy vehicles while continuously iterating on traditional platforms [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Foton has established a comprehensive technical accumulation and strategic layout across its entire product range, including heavy trucks, light trucks, micro trucks, and vans [5] - The brand strategy has expanded from product development to ecological operation, focusing on building differentiated competitiveness through "whole vehicle + Internet of Vehicles" [5] Group 4: Market Expansion - Foton plans to establish over 10 industrial bases in multiple countries over the next five years, marking a shift from trade export to localized manufacturing and a full value chain ecosystem [7] - The company aims to enhance global logistics efficiency and sustainability, providing a replicable path for the upgrade of China's commercial vehicle industry [7]

Core Viewpoint - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Truck) has indicated that it currently has a sufficient backlog of orders and is conducting orderly production and scheduling based on the order structure to ensure timely delivery of products [1] Group 1 - The company has a robust order backlog, which suggests strong demand for its products [1] - The production process is being managed in an orderly manner to meet delivery timelines [1]

"蜜月期"已过，中国重卡对俄出口正急速降温。俄罗斯市场曾是中国重卡出口的黄金赛道，但2025年以 来，俄罗斯市场整体需求大幅萎缩，让中国重卡对俄出口增速明显放缓，而俄罗斯不断抬高政策壁垒， 更给势头受挫的中国重卡 "当头一棒"。 01 市场面临深度调整 俄罗斯市场长期由本土卡车企业以及众多欧美品牌共同主导，这一稳定局面在2022年迎来历史性转折。 俄乌冲突引发的供应链断裂，让本土重卡企业产能严重受限，难以满足市场需求。与此同时，欧美日韩 整零企业集体撤离，留下了巨大的市场真空。 在此背景下，中国重卡企业实现"快速补位"，由此在俄罗斯市场开启了数年的"黄金增长期"，市场份额 从不足10%飙升至超过60%，推动形成以俄罗斯本土品牌和中国车企为主要力量的新格局。在2024年俄 罗斯重卡市场销量排名前十的企业中，有七席由中国车企占据，居于销量前位的车企几乎被中国车企和 本土品牌包揽。 税费政策的调整，直接抬高了中国重卡进入俄罗斯市场的资金成本，削弱了其价格竞争力。不仅如此， 俄罗斯还不断收紧非本土卡车的认证标准和条件。例如，在认证体系方面，所有进口车型必须通过俄罗 斯本土实验室的强制性检测，认证周期从6个月拉长至12 ...

民生证券主要观点如下： 零部件：营收持续增长智能化盈利表现亮眼 民生证券发布研报称，2025Q3新能源乘用车批发销量402.4万辆，同比+24.2%，环比+10.9%；出口 159.2万辆，同比+23.1%，环比+13.6%。毛利端上看，规模效应深化和精准战略布局优化毛利水平，定 价策略滞后和产品结构波动导致毛利率温和承压。2025Q3零部件板块营收2,798.0亿元，同比+17.9%， 环比+5.0%，增长主要受益于核心自主品牌、新势力产业链强势表现；其中轻量化、智能化、内外饰等 细分领域优质公司营收同比增速高于行业平均。 乘用车：分化加剧规模效应+高端化驱动盈利 销量端：2025Q3乘用车批发销量768.6万辆，同比+14.7%，环比+8.1%；新能源乘用车批发销量402.4万 辆，同比+24.2%，环比+10.9%；出口159.2万辆，同比+23.1%，环比+13.6%。 营收端：受益自主份额提升，高端化驱动，上汽、广汽、比亚迪、长安、长城、赛力斯等6家自主样本 企业营收5,378亿元，同比+7.8%，环比+4.5%；同比表现相对亮眼的为小鹏、零跑、蔚来、吉利；环比 表现相对亮眼的为长城。 毛利端：20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China experienced significant growth in October 2025, with sales reaching 106,200 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 60% and achieving a "seven consecutive months" growth trend [1][4][20]. Sales Performance - In October 2025, the total sales of trucks (including chassis and tractors) amounted to 311,100 units, reflecting a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.3% but a year-on-year increase of 22% [4]. - The heavy truck segment's sales of 106,200 units in October 2025 represent a 1% increase from September and a 60% increase year-on-year, although the growth rate has narrowed compared to the 83% increase in September [4][11]. - The October 2025 sales figure is notably high compared to the past decade, where the average sales in October were approximately 76,500 units, with only one instance of exceeding 100,000 units in the previous ten years [4][6]. Cumulative Sales Data - From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy trucks reached 929,000 units, ranking second in the last five years and sixth in the last decade, with a year-on-year growth of 24% [8][14]. - The average monthly sales for the first ten months of 2025 were approximately 93,000 units, significantly higher than the average monthly sales of 75,000 units in both 2024 and 2023, indicating a clear recovery in the heavy truck market [8]. Market Share and Competition - In October 2025, five companies sold over 10,000 units, with the top two companies, Heavy Truck and Jiefang, maintaining sales above 20,000 units, selling 28,200 and 23,900 units respectively [11][13]. - The top ten companies accounted for 97.34% of the market share, with the top five companies alone holding 89.71% [11]. - Notably, companies like Foton, Xugong, and Chery saw substantial year-on-year growth rates of 147%, 117%, and 223% respectively, indicating a competitive landscape with significant shifts in market dynamics [13][17]. Industry Trends - The heavy truck market has shown a trend of increasing concentration, with the top five companies' market share rising from 87.74% to 90.60% compared to the previous year [17]. - The rankings of the top ten companies have seen changes, with Chery making a notable leap from 15th to 10th place, reflecting shifts in competitive positioning within the industry [18]. Future Outlook - The heavy truck market's performance in September and October 2025 has raised questions about whether the growth momentum will continue into the final months of the year, with hopes of surpassing 1.1 million units in total sales for the year [20].

Summary of Heavy Truck Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The heavy truck market is experiencing significant growth driven by policy incentives, particularly the vehicle replacement program, which has notably increased demand in the fourth quarter of 2025. [1][3][10] Key Market Insights - **2025 Heavy Truck Sales**: Retail sales are projected to reach 800,000 to 810,000 units, a year-on-year increase of over 200,000 units, primarily due to the old-for-new policy. [1][10] - **October 2025 Performance**: Wholesale sales exceeded 100,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of nearly 60%. Retail sales for October are expected around 72,000 units, reflecting a 61% increase. [2][9] - **November 2025 Projections**: Early November data indicates a retail sales growth of over 30%. November's total retail sales are expected to be between 80,000 and 85,000 units, with significant contributions from natural gas and new energy trucks. [6][7][9] - **Export Trends**: In October 2025, exports approached 30,000 units, marking a 20% increase year-on-year. The export market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, with 330,000 to 350,000 units projected for 2026. [4][14][15] Segment Performance - **Natural Gas and New Energy Trucks**: Both segments are expected to see substantial growth, with sales projected at 205,000 to 210,000 units, achieving a combined market penetration of nearly 26%. [1][11][12] - **Electric Truck Market**: The penetration rate for electric and gas trucks is anticipated to rise to 25%-30% in 2026, impacting traditional fuel truck sales, which may drop to 180,000-190,000 units. [17][18] Future Market Predictions - **2026 Domestic Market Outlook**: A decline in domestic heavy truck sales is expected, with projections of 650,000 to 700,000 units, influenced by the demand pull-forward from 2025. [13][15] - **Global Market Dynamics**: Despite the collapse of the Russian market, demand in Asia, Africa, and Latin America remains strong, with China’s heavy truck exports expected to grow. [14] Regulatory and Technological Developments - **National Standard 1589 Revision**: This revision could significantly impact the new energy truck sector by potentially increasing the total vehicle weight limit, which is currently a contentious issue among traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers. [25] - **Innovations in Electric Trucks**: The introduction of the EBRT electric semi-trailer by CIMC showcases advancements in battery technology and performance, enhancing market competitiveness. [28][29] Competitive Landscape - **Market Competition**: The electric truck sector is expected to face intense competition, leading to potential price reductions. Traditional fuel vehicle markets are likely to stabilize due to high concentration among leading manufacturers. [19][21][22] Conclusion - The heavy truck market is poised for both growth and challenges, with significant shifts towards new energy vehicles and regulatory changes shaping the landscape. The upcoming years will require manufacturers to adapt to evolving market demands and competitive pressures. [18][24]

Core Viewpoint - Gree Electric Appliances is expanding into the refrigerator market and the electric vehicle sector, emphasizing quality and innovation in its products while maintaining a strategic focus on its core business of air conditioning [1][3]. Group 1: Refrigerator Business Expansion - Gree's entry into the refrigerator market is driven by a commitment to quality, with the establishment of a fully automated refrigerator factory designed entirely in-house [1]. - The company is willing to invest more in production costs to ensure high-quality products across its appliance range, including air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [1]. Group 2: Electric Vehicle Development - Gree Electric is not pursuing the production of passenger cars but is focusing on commercial vehicles such as sanitation trucks, heavy-duty trucks, and buses, indicating a strategic choice rather than a withdrawal from the automotive sector [1]. - The establishment of Shanghai Gree Automotive Technology Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 20 million RMB marks Gree's commitment to the electric vehicle market, focusing on automotive parts and industrial robotics [3]. Group 3: Leadership and Strategic Branding - Dong Mingzhu, the long-serving chairwoman of Gree, has been re-elected for another three years, reflecting her strong influence and leadership within the company [5]. - The rebranding of Gree's retail outlets to "Dong Mingzhu Health Home" aims to leverage her reputation, with 970 stores established nationwide and a reported retail total of approximately 390 million RMB from 293 stores operating for over 30 days [5].

Core Insights - The company's performance is positively impacted by the growth in heavy truck sales, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the third quarter and the first three quarters of the year [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company reported a revenue of 40.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion yuan, up 12.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue reached 14.33 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 56.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1%. The net profit for Q3 was 382 million yuan, up 21.0% year-on-year and 6.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Industry Trends - The heavy truck market is expected to show a strengthening trend through 2025, with cumulative sales from January to September reaching 821,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%. Q3 sales were 282,100 units, up 58.1% year-on-year [2]. - The company has a market share of 27% with cumulative sales of 224,100 units from January to September, reflecting a growth of approximately 19% [2]. New Energy Trucks - The new energy heavy truck segment is experiencing explosive growth, with Q3 sales reaching 58,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 181.3%. The penetration rate reached a historical high of 28.9% in September [3]. - The company’s export volume for heavy trucks from January to September was 111,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, with September exports exceeding 15,000 units [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.42, 1.74, and 2.06 yuan, maintaining a target price of 22.72 yuan based on a PE ratio of 16 times [4].