2025年，苏州新房共成交21443套，成交量峰值也出现在3月，相城区的新房成交量领跑全市，占比超 23%。成交结构方面，90—120㎡的房源也是新房成交的主力，成交量占比超34%；价格方面，200— 300万元区间的新房成交占比最高，达到近30%。整体来看，2025年苏州楼市在存量房时代中呈现出政 策驱动的结构性回暖。 2025年，省内多个城市接连发布了楼市新政，在一定程度上刺激了新房和二手房市场，新房在以去库存 为主的背景下，成交量低于二手房。整体来看，2025年苏州楼市在存量房时代中呈现出政策驱动的结构 性回暖。 2025年二手房共成交57650套，根据苏州贝壳成交数据显示，全年成交量峰值出现在3月，昆山区域的二 手房成交量全市占比最高，达28%。成交结构方面，90—120㎡的房源最受市场欢迎，占比超32%。价 格方面，从2025年第四季度开始，苏州二手房成交均价持续3个月均有缓步回升。 2025年12月末，财政部、税务总局联合发文，个人销售购买不满2年的住宅，增值税征收率迎来下调。 贝壳研究院苏州分院院长周洁分析，新政落地将进一步激活改善型需求，促进市场联动二手房流通，为 2026年稳定市场预期、推动 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with retail sales of passenger vehicles dropping by 32% year-on-year in early December 2025, totaling 297,000 units [2][28] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) market also saw a decline, with retail sales of 185,000 units, down 17% year-on-year [2][28] - This decline is attributed to the phasing out of the vehicle purchase tax exemption and uncertainty surrounding the "trade-in" subsidy policies [3][29] Group 2 - The current vehicle purchase tax is set at 10%, with a reduced rate of 5% for NEVs, and the exemption cap has been lowered from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan [5][31] - There is a prevailing market sentiment of caution among consumers, with 58.2% of dealers reporting that November sales did not meet expectations due to this cautious attitude [6][33] - The "trade-in" subsidies have been paused in many regions, impacting consumer purchasing behavior [8][34] Group 3 - The anticipated "year-end surge" in sales, typically seen in the fourth quarter, has not materialized this year, leading to a "flat tail" effect instead of the expected "tail effect" [36][44] - The automotive market saw a rare decline in November, with retail sales down 8.1% year-on-year, attributed to high sales figures from the previous year and the suspension of trade-in subsidies [38][39] - The inventory warning index for dealers reached a high of 55.6%, indicating over 3.3 million vehicles in stock, with more than 30% of dealers facing inventory pressure [35][41] Group 4 - Over 20 automotive companies have introduced "purchase tax guarantee" policies, where manufacturers will cover the difference in tax if consumers order vehicles before the end of 2025 but do not receive them until after [41][44] - This policy is expected to affect purchasing behavior, leading consumers to delay purchases, which could suppress immediate demand in the fourth quarter [42][44] - The exit of subsidies is projected to significantly impact the market, with estimates suggesting a potential sales growth slowdown from 8% in 2025 to -2% in 2026 [45][46] Group 5 - The automotive industry is shifting from a "policy-driven" to a "market-driven" and "technology-driven" model, indicating a maturation of the market [46] - The average price of new energy vehicles is expected to decrease from 185,000 yuan in 2023 to 156,000 yuan in 2025, putting pressure on profit margins [52] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has surpassed 50%, indicating a significant shift in consumer adoption and market dynamics [52]

根据政策安排，自2026年1月1日起，新能源汽车购置税从全额免征调整为减半征收，从每辆最高免税额3万元，调整为每辆最高减税额1.5万元。 中国汽车工业协会数据显示，2025年11月，我国汽车市场在高基数上继续保持稳健增长，其中新能源汽车表现尤为亮眼，产销量分别达到188万辆和182.3万 辆，新能源汽车新车销量占汽车新车总销量的比例历史性突破53.2%。 行业专家指出，上述数据印证了新能源汽车已占据市场主导地位，反映出在购置税优惠"退坡"预期下，部分消费需求正集中提前释放，形成政策切换前 的"末班车效应"。国家信息中心经济师林超指出，从长期视角看，购置税优惠力度的逐步调整，标志着新能源汽车市场发展的核心动力，正从依赖财政补贴 的"政策驱动"，加速转向依靠产品技术、成本与服务体验的"价值驱动"。市场竞争的焦点将更加聚焦于内生竞争力。 随着政策普惠性减弱，消费者购车行为将日趋理性。林超分析，未来消费者将逐渐从依赖政策优惠，转向更加关注产品本身的品质、技术性能、残值率，以 及购车、用车全生命周期的服务体验。 补能体验已成为影响消费决策的关键一环。国家能源局有关负责人表示，尽管我国充电基础设施快速发展，基本满足当前需 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货股指年报 预计股指中期攀升格局未改 20251215 段福林 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F3048935 交易咨询号：Z0015600 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 1 年度观点及策略 2 指数行业走势回顾 3 主力合约和基差走势 4 经济政策 5 各指数营收和净利润 6 估值 8 资金面 9 技术面 7 利率 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 基本面观点 此外，中长期信贷增长率由2022年11月（10.21%）开始企稳回升以来连续上升至2023年月5月高点(12.94%)，然后 一直震荡回落，截止2025年11月，连续30个月回落至5 ...

今天小云给大家聊一点不一样的，最近消费提及的次数特别多，会给我们市场带来什么影响？明年的行 情能否期待，我们该关注什么方向？ 当然股市的任务也不小，毕竟要承担起未来资产池的重任。所以长期看短线可能会很难，时间大概在12 月到1月份，但长期看政策才是股市的核心，政策不会断，明年也不会差，大家一定要有信心。06年到 07年，14年到15年的牛市结束的太快了，但今年的A股涨幅控制的非常好，只有15.6%，我个人认为明 年A股大概率还会有10%~15%的空间保持稳定，资本市场不动摇，指数可能会来到4300~4500附近，蓝 筹的估值还是会进一步提升，科技成长加出海依旧会有较高的弹性，所以即便12月到1月份不加，也不 必对明年整体失望，反而回撤下来之后会有更好的买点。 和讯投顾孔晓云分析称，消费的低迷，投资的低迷反映在A股上，周末三部门发文更大力度提振消费， 但消费真正想要走好需要的不是刺激，而是口袋鼓起来。 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market in November 2025 shows a complex scenario with high production but declining retail demand, indicating a disconnect between production enthusiasm and consumer spending [1][2][5] Production and Sales - In November, China's automotive production reached a historic high of 3.53 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 5.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [1][2] - Cumulative production and sales from January to November reached 31.23 million and 31.13 million units, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.9% and 11.4% [1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in November fell by 8.1% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month, indicating a significant decline in consumer demand [1][5] Inventory and Market Dynamics - The disparity between production and retail sales has led to increased inventory pressure, with manufacturer inventory rising by 60,000 units compared to a decrease of 220,000 units in the same month last year [5] - Factors contributing to this divergence include the withdrawal of previous policy stimuli and a cautious consumer outlook regarding future economic conditions [5] New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - NEVs continue to be a key growth driver, with production and sales in November reaching 1.88 million and 1.82 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of over 20% and achieving a penetration rate of 53.2% [7][8] - From January to November, NEV production and sales totaled 14.91 million and 14.78 million units, with year-on-year growth of 31.4% and 31.2% [8] - The retail penetration rate for NEVs reached 59.3%, indicating a shift from a policy-driven growth phase to a market-driven stabilization phase [8] Export Performance - November saw a record export of 728,000 vehicles, a month-on-month increase of 9.3% and a year-on-year increase of 48.5%, with total exports from January to November reaching 6.34 million units, up 18.7% year-on-year [10][13] - NEVs accounted for 47.3% of total passenger vehicle exports, reflecting a growing trend in international markets [10] - The export market is diversifying, with significant demand for plug-in hybrid models in developing countries, indicating a shift in market strategy [13] Future Outlook - The end of 2025 is marked by a critical policy transition, with the expiration of the NEV purchase tax exemption expected to create a surge in consumer demand in December [14][15] - Despite structural challenges, the overall outlook for the automotive market in 2025 remains optimistic, with expectations for record production and sales driven by policy support and resilient foreign trade [14][15]

Market Overview - On December 8, 2025, the A-share market experienced a significant surge with a trading volume exceeding 2.05 trillion yuan, marking a notable increase from the previous day. Major indices saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index soaring by 2.6%. Over 3,400 stocks rose, indicating a clear recovery in market sentiment [1] Sector Performance - The telecommunications sector, driven by the CPO (optical module) concept, surged by 4.79%, while technology sectors such as electronics and computers also performed strongly. In contrast, traditional cyclical sectors like coal and oil & petrochemicals experienced slight pullbacks. The non-bank financial sector (brokerage) rose by 1.9%, with a significant increase in trading volume, reflecting the entry of new capital and an increase in risk appetite [1] Market Drivers - The core drivers of today's market performance were the resonance of "policy-driven" and "industry trends." Regulatory policies guided "patient capital" to support technological innovation, while the global AI computing power competition and the fundamental logic of optical module technology upgrades collectively propelled the explosion of the technology sector. The market is transitioning from liquidity recovery to a structurally driven dual-phase [1] Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes the importance of shifting from a focus on specific annual return targets to a more robust risk management approach. It argues that setting unrealistic return expectations can lead to poor decision-making and unnecessary risks. Instead, investors should concentrate on managing risk and understanding potential losses, which is the true essence of investment [2][3] Risk Management Framework - A systematic risk management framework is essential for effective investment. Key components include: 1. **Asset Allocation**: Define risk ceilings based on personal financial cycles and risk tolerance rather than market predictions [3] 2. **Margin of Safety**: Invest only when prices are significantly below intrinsic value to account for potential errors and unforeseen events [3] 3. **In-depth Research and Diversification**: Conduct thorough research to avoid flawed companies and diversify across uncorrelated opportunities to mitigate individual company risks [3] 4. **Discipline and Position Management**: Adjust overall positions based on market valuations and adhere to pre-set investment criteria to maintain rational risk management [4] Long-term Investment Success - Long-term investment success relies on avoiding significant permanent losses, as the cost of recovering from losses is much higher than anticipated. The article highlights that the art of investing lies in systematically avoiding catastrophic downturns, which ultimately opens the door to potential gains [4][5]

Core Insights - A-shares demonstrated strong resilience with a low open and high close, driven by policy benefits and industry prosperity, while Hong Kong stocks showed a mixed performance with technology stocks continuing to adjust [1] - The market reflects a "strong internal, weak external" dynamic, with A-shares benefiting from domestic economic recovery and institutional buying, while Hong Kong stocks are influenced by valuation pressures in technology and international capital's risk aversion [1] Market Overview - A-share indices closed higher, with the ChiNext Index rising by 1.03%, the Shenzhen Component up by 0.37%, and the Shanghai Composite increasing by 0.23%. The total trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan, indicating active market participation. In contrast, Hong Kong's major indices saw slight declines, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.07% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.56%, with a trading volume of 238.8 billion HKD [3] Sector Performance - A-shares exhibited a dual drive from policy and industry, with the electric power equipment sector surging by 3.4%, primarily due to increased investment from the State Grid and the promotion of new energy integration policies. The energy transition is reflected in the strong performance of storage and lithium battery sectors. The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector remained active due to expectations surrounding the expansion of duty-free policies [4] - In the technology sector, there was a divergence, with quantum technology and AI computing sectors continuing to adjust, leading to a 0.97% decline in the computer sector, indicating a need for valuation correction after previous overheating [4] - In Hong Kong, the electric power equipment sector performed strongly due to improved demand expectations, while the aviation sector benefited from the recovery in cross-border travel. Conversely, cryptocurrency-related stocks struggled due to price volatility, and sectors like education, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals continued to adjust [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The investment strategy for the fourth quarter should focus on three main lines: technology growth sectors, including AI computing hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals, while looking for opportunities in cyclical and resource sectors such as gold, copper, and coal, capitalizing on policy support and profit recovery [2][5] - Close attention should be paid to the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan," particularly in the Hainan Free Trade Port and sectors related to new productivity, such as AI and high-end manufacturing, which have long-term growth potential [6] - Overall, the market remains focused on structural opportunities, emphasizing alignment with policy and industry trends, and the importance of matching valuation with performance when selecting quality targets [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index's approach to the 4000-point mark signifies a new, more dynamic phase for the market, driven by policy support and restored investor confidence [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The potential for a sustained upward trend ("main rising wave") depends on solid economic fundamentals and tangible improvements in corporate earnings [1] - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious optimism, focusing on sector rotation and changes in trading volume to prepare for market fluctuations [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include policy beneficiaries such as brokerage firms, state-owned enterprises, high-end manufacturing, and the digital economy [1] - Economic recovery sectors include discretionary consumption (automobiles, home appliances) and certain cyclical products [1] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in new energy and technology fields like artificial intelligence [1]

Core Insights - The heavy truck market in China has shown a strong recovery, with cumulative sales exceeding 820,000 units by September this year, indicating a likely annual sales target of over 1 million units [1] - Policy support has been a key driver of this recovery, with various incentives introduced to encourage the replacement of old vehicles and support for natural gas and new energy heavy trucks [1][2] - However, the current growth is largely driven by policy-induced demand, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth without a solid economic foundation [2] Market Dynamics - The increase in heavy truck sales contrasts sharply with the challenges faced in the road logistics market, such as low freight rates and intensified competition, suggesting that the demand expansion is not based on genuine economic recovery [2] - The reliance on policy support for growth may lead to a potential decline in demand once these incentives are withdrawn, highlighting the need for the industry to shift from policy dependence to internal growth drivers [2][3] Industry Recommendations - The heavy truck industry must focus on enhancing technological innovation, product competitiveness, and risk management capabilities to achieve high-quality development rather than merely expanding sales [3] - Policymakers should balance short-term stimulus with long-term guidance, transitioning support from direct purchase subsidies to fostering industry transformation and ecosystem development [3][4] Strategic Considerations - Logistics companies and individual truck owners should make informed decisions based on total lifecycle costs rather than solely on subsidy amounts, considering vehicle performance, energy costs, and maintenance [4] - The heavy truck market serves as a barometer for the macroeconomy, and while reaching the sales milestone of 1 million units is commendable, the industry must maintain a rational perspective on sustainable growth [4][5] Conclusion - The heavy truck industry is at a critical juncture, requiring a shift from scale-driven growth to quality-focused development, with an emphasis on innovation and market competitiveness to ensure long-term success [5]