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李公明︱一周书记:国家在什么时候、什么情况下会……破产?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 06:36
《国家为什么会破产:大周期》,[美] 瑞·达利欧著, [美] 立雯译,中信出版社,2025年6月版,138.00 美国著名投资人瑞·达利欧(Ray Dalio)的新著《国家为什么会破产:大周期》(How Countries Go Broke:The Big Cycle,2025;立雯译,中信出版社,2025年6月)从完稿(书中多次提到正在写作的 2025年3月,英文版也是3月出版)到中译本出版,仅三个月的时间,这样的翻译出版速度是不多见的。 作者在"中文版序"中提到他早在二十世纪八十年代初就与中国国际信托投资公司(中信集团前称)开始 了合作关系,是四十多年来的重要合作伙伴。印在该书中译本封底勒口的作者介绍是:"对冲基金公司 桥水创始人。他出生于纽约长岛一个非常普通的中产阶级家庭,26岁时在自己的两居室公寓内创办了桥 水。经过50年的发展,桥水成为全球知名的资产管理公司,位列'美国最重要的私营公司'榜单第5位 (《财富》杂志)。他曾入选《时代》周刊'世界100位最具影响力人物',并跻身《福布斯》杂志世界 前100名富豪行列。由于他独到的投资准则改变了基金业,投资界著名刊物CIO称其为'投资界的史蒂夫· 乔布斯' ...
达利欧最新预测:未来5年,世界的五大巨变
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 20:52
Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes that the world operates under five major forces: debt/money/economic cycles, internal order and chaos cycles, external order and chaos cycles, natural forces, and human creativity [3][6] - The next 5-10 years are expected to witness significant changes in major orders, as outlined in Dalio's new book "Why Nations Fail: Big Cycles" [6][28] - The current phase of the debt cycle is nearing its end, with a high probability of significant restructuring or monetization of debt assets within the next 5-10 years [7][9] Group 2 - Internal political volatility is expected to lead to a shift from democracy to authoritarianism within 3-5 years, driven by deepening political divisions and dissatisfaction with democratic processes [10][11] - The transition from democracy to authoritarianism often occurs within the framework of democratic rules and can escalate quickly [12][14] - The U.S. is experiencing significant political challenges, with a small percentage of the population holding a disproportionate amount of wealth and power, leading to societal instability [15] Group 3 - The international order is shifting from a cooperative multilateral approach to a more confrontational unilateral one, with increasing tensions between the U.S. and China [17][20] - The dynamics of alliances are changing rapidly, with historical examples showing that loyalty is often secondary to victory [18] - The U.S. is attempting to reverse its relative decline while engaging in various forms of conflict with China, including trade and technology wars [20][21] Group 4 - The frequency and cost of natural disasters are expected to rise due to human impact on the environment, population density, and global connectivity [21] - Countries with heavy debt burdens may struggle to allocate resources for disaster prevention and response, leading to increased domestic conflicts and migration pressures [21] Group 5 - The potential for exponential growth in GDP and life expectancy is linked to advancements in artificial intelligence and technology [23][28] - The competition between the U.S. and China in technology development, particularly in AI and semiconductor production, is intensifying [24][26] - The ability to effectively utilize new technologies will create significant disparities in performance among nations and companies [24][25]