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达利欧退隐,“潮汐”又起?
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-02 03:25
Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has sold all his remaining shares and stepped down from the board, marking his retirement after a 50-year investment career [1][8] - Bridgewater has repurchased Dalio's shares and issued new stock to the Brunei sovereign wealth fund, giving it nearly 20% ownership [1] - Dalio warns of a 65% probability of a global debt crisis in the next five years, which could severely impact the dominance of the US dollar [1] Performance - Bridgewater Associates, founded by Dalio in 1975, has become the world's largest hedge fund under his leadership, achieving significant returns during key financial crises [2] - The flagship fund, Pure Alpha, has seen a decline in assets from $168 billion at the end of 2019 to an expected $92.1 billion by the end of 2024, with a cumulative return of only 5.9% over five years [3] - However, after limiting its size, Pure Alpha improved its performance, achieving an 11.3% return in 2024 and 17% in the first half of 2025 [3] Controversies - Dalio's debt theory has faced criticism, particularly regarding his approach to macroeconomic analysis, which some argue is overly simplistic [4][5] - Critics suggest that his view of national debt as a direct precursor to crises does not account for the complexities of macroeconomic behavior and the unique position of the US as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency [5][6] Legacy - Dalio has emphasized the importance of principles in his investment philosophy, including the need for a culture of transparency and learning from mistakes [8] - He has expressed excitement about the future of Bridgewater without his direct involvement, hoping for continued success under new leadership [8] - Dalio's investment principles highlight the significance of understanding causal relationships, diversification, and the importance of adapting to changing market conditions [10]
达利欧最新预测:未来5年,世界的五大巨变
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 20:52
Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes that the world operates under five major forces: debt/money/economic cycles, internal order and chaos cycles, external order and chaos cycles, natural forces, and human creativity [3][6] - The next 5-10 years are expected to witness significant changes in major orders, as outlined in Dalio's new book "Why Nations Fail: Big Cycles" [6][28] - The current phase of the debt cycle is nearing its end, with a high probability of significant restructuring or monetization of debt assets within the next 5-10 years [7][9] Group 2 - Internal political volatility is expected to lead to a shift from democracy to authoritarianism within 3-5 years, driven by deepening political divisions and dissatisfaction with democratic processes [10][11] - The transition from democracy to authoritarianism often occurs within the framework of democratic rules and can escalate quickly [12][14] - The U.S. is experiencing significant political challenges, with a small percentage of the population holding a disproportionate amount of wealth and power, leading to societal instability [15] Group 3 - The international order is shifting from a cooperative multilateral approach to a more confrontational unilateral one, with increasing tensions between the U.S. and China [17][20] - The dynamics of alliances are changing rapidly, with historical examples showing that loyalty is often secondary to victory [18] - The U.S. is attempting to reverse its relative decline while engaging in various forms of conflict with China, including trade and technology wars [20][21] Group 4 - The frequency and cost of natural disasters are expected to rise due to human impact on the environment, population density, and global connectivity [21] - Countries with heavy debt burdens may struggle to allocate resources for disaster prevention and response, leading to increased domestic conflicts and migration pressures [21] Group 5 - The potential for exponential growth in GDP and life expectancy is linked to advancements in artificial intelligence and technology [23][28] - The competition between the U.S. and China in technology development, particularly in AI and semiconductor production, is intensifying [24][26] - The ability to effectively utilize new technologies will create significant disparities in performance among nations and companies [24][25]