文｜康路 "城堡投资的肯·格里芬觉得黄金如今比美元更安全。你同意吗？" "是的。当然。" 2025年10月7日，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人达利 欧（Ray Dalio）在格林尼治经济论坛发言时表示，在政府债务负担加重时期，黄金成为关 键保值手段。 "现在的时代非常像70年代初。"达利欧指出。20 世纪 70 年代，通胀高企和政府债务压 力，削弱了投资人对美元的信心。 投资人应比平时持有更多黄金 达利欧建议，投资者在资产配置中应持有约15%的黄金比例，以应对未来货币体系潜在的 贬值与信用风险。他表示，"黄金在其他资产下跌时表现良好。" 达利欧回忆起1971 年 8 月，当尼克松宣布美元和黄金脱钩时的情景，"我在纽约证券交易 所当实习生。我以为股市会暴跌，结果相反。股市大涨。这让我去研究历史，结果发现 1933 年罗斯福也做过同样的事。通过贬值货币重启经济。这让我明白，我们习惯从货币角 度看世界，但实际上货币本身也在波动。黄金作为真实价值的储藏手段，依旧有它的逻 辑。"演讲当日，黄金价格突破4000美元/盎司，今年以来涨幅超过50%。 达利欧并不是近期唯一一个 ...

文/康路 发自格林威治 "城堡投资的肯·格里芬觉得黄金如今比美元更安全。你同意吗？" "是的。当然。" 2025年10月7日，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）的创始人达利欧（Ray Dalio） 在格林尼治经济论坛发言时表示，在政府债务负担加重时期，黄金成为关键保值手段。 "现在的时代非常像70年代初。"达利欧指出。20 世纪 70 年代，通胀高企和政府债务压力，削弱了投资 人对美元的信心。 投资人应比平时持有更多黄金 达利欧建议，投资者在资产配置中应持有约15%的黄金比例，以应对未来货币体系潜在的贬值与信用风 险。他表示，"黄金在其他资产下跌时表现良好。" 达利欧回忆起1971 年 8 月，当尼克松宣布美元和黄金脱钩时的情景，"我在纽约证券交易所当实习生。 我以为股市会暴跌，结果相反。股市大涨。这让我去研究历史，结果发现 1933 年罗斯福也做过同样的 事。通过贬值货币重启经济。这让我明白，我们习惯从货币角度看世界，但实际上货币本身也在波动。 黄金作为真实价值的储藏手段，依旧有它的逻辑。"演讲当日，黄金价格突破4000美元/盎司，今年以来 涨幅超过50%。 达利欧并不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The book "How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle" by Ray Dalio discusses the mechanisms behind government debt, internal politics, and geopolitical issues, focusing on when and why central banks and nations may face bankruptcy [4][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Book Overview - The book was completed in March 2025 and published in Chinese just three months later, highlighting the author's long-standing relationship with China since the early 1980s [2]. - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes sharing insights gained from over 50 years in global macro investing, aiming to help policymakers and investors understand the "big cycle" driven by debt and other significant factors [4][3]. Key Themes - The book addresses critical questions about the limits of debt growth, the formation of government debt, and the potential for major reserve currency countries to go bankrupt [3]. - Dalio outlines the importance of understanding historical patterns to predict future events, emphasizing that recognizing causal relationships can help navigate current and future challenges [7][4]. The Big Cycle Theory - The "big cycle" theory is driven by five major forces: debt/credit/money/economic cycles, internal order and chaos cycles, external order and chaos cycles, natural forces, and human creativity, particularly technological advancements [7][12]. - The author argues that we are currently in the late stage of a big cycle characterized by high national debt, increasing nationalism, and geopolitical tensions, which could lead to significant changes in global order [9][11]. Debt and Economic Cycles - Short-term economic cycles average around six years, while long-term debt cycles last approximately 80 years, with unsustainable debt creation leading to crises [8][12]. - The book posits that the current global situation mirrors historical periods of high debt and governance challenges, suggesting a potential rise in populism and authoritarianism [15][14]. Recommendations for Investors - Dalio advises investors to be aware of the risks associated with extreme actions taken by governments and to adopt a diversified investment strategy based on sound fundamentals [17][16]. - The author emphasizes the importance of understanding the interplay between technological advancements and economic cycles, noting that while technology can drive progress, it may also lead to financial instability if not managed properly [12][16].

Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes that the world operates under five major forces: debt/money/economic cycles, internal order and chaos cycles, external order and chaos cycles, natural forces, and human creativity [3][6] - The next 5-10 years are expected to witness significant changes in major orders, as outlined in Dalio's new book "Why Nations Fail: Big Cycles" [6][28] - The current phase of the debt cycle is nearing its end, with a high probability of significant restructuring or monetization of debt assets within the next 5-10 years [7][9] Group 2 - Internal political volatility is expected to lead to a shift from democracy to authoritarianism within 3-5 years, driven by deepening political divisions and dissatisfaction with democratic processes [10][11] - The transition from democracy to authoritarianism often occurs within the framework of democratic rules and can escalate quickly [12][14] - The U.S. is experiencing significant political challenges, with a small percentage of the population holding a disproportionate amount of wealth and power, leading to societal instability [15] Group 3 - The international order is shifting from a cooperative multilateral approach to a more confrontational unilateral one, with increasing tensions between the U.S. and China [17][20] - The dynamics of alliances are changing rapidly, with historical examples showing that loyalty is often secondary to victory [18] - The U.S. is attempting to reverse its relative decline while engaging in various forms of conflict with China, including trade and technology wars [20][21] Group 4 - The frequency and cost of natural disasters are expected to rise due to human impact on the environment, population density, and global connectivity [21] - Countries with heavy debt burdens may struggle to allocate resources for disaster prevention and response, leading to increased domestic conflicts and migration pressures [21] Group 5 - The potential for exponential growth in GDP and life expectancy is linked to advancements in artificial intelligence and technology [23][28] - The competition between the U.S. and China in technology development, particularly in AI and semiconductor production, is intensifying [24][26] - The ability to effectively utilize new technologies will create significant disparities in performance among nations and companies [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the structural forces driving global changes, rather than being distracted by short-term events that cause market volatility [2][3]. Group 1: Structural Forces Driving Global Change - Five major forces are currently shaping the evolution of the global landscape: 1) Debt and monetary systems, which are core variables affecting markets and economies [3][4] 2) Domestic wealth disparity and value division, which are reshaping political dynamics [3][8] 3) The process of international order/disorder, determining the evolution of global governance [3][9] 4) Natural forces, including droughts, floods, and pandemics, which are increasingly impacting economies [3][10] 5) Human innovation, particularly rapid technological advancements, which can bring both benefits and risks [3][11]. Group 2: Debt and Monetary System - The current high levels of government debt and deficits in the U.S. and other countries will primarily dictate future market and economic directions, rather than daily policy choices by leaders [4][5]. - The accumulation of debt will force governments to either raise taxes or increase debt monetization, both of which will have profound impacts on the market [5][6]. - The ability to attract capital inflows and create win-win situations will significantly help alleviate the current situation, contingent on management capabilities [6][7]. Group 3: Domestic Wealth Disparity and Value Division - The trend of wealth disparity has evolved into a structurally irreconcilable conflict, leading to the rise of populism and authoritarian politics, undermining democratic institutions and the rule of law [8][9]. Group 4: International Order - The current global landscape lacks a single dominant power, with many countries led by populist leaders favoring unilateralism, increasing the risks of geopolitical, trade, technological, and military conflicts [9]. Group 5: Natural Forces and Technological Innovation - The worsening of natural factors is leading to higher economic and real costs, with effective responses becoming a key indicator of national governance capabilities [10]. - Rapid technological innovation is enhancing human capabilities but also poses significant risks, marking a critical juncture for monetary, political, and international order [11][12]. Group 6: Recommendations - All short-term news should be viewed within the context of the five major forces shaping the long-term landscape, particularly regarding monetary, political, and international order [15]. - The current situation is on the brink of significant change, with the key being whether these transformations can be managed intelligently and collaboratively [16]. - In investment, a systematic framework is essential, including effective asset diversification, to avoid reactive strategies in response to news or market fluctuations [16].