《国家为什么会破产：大周期》，[美] 瑞·达利欧著， [美] 立雯译，中信出版社，2025年6月版，138.00 美国著名投资人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）的新著《国家为什么会破产：大周期》（How Countries Go Broke：The Big Cycle，2025；立雯译，中信出版社，2025年6月）从完稿（书中多次提到正在写作的 2025年3月，英文版也是3月出版）到中译本出版，仅三个月的时间，这样的翻译出版速度是不多见的。 作者在"中文版序"中提到他早在二十世纪八十年代初就与中国国际信托投资公司（中信集团前称）开始 了合作关系，是四十多年来的重要合作伙伴。印在该书中译本封底勒口的作者介绍是："对冲基金公司 桥水创始人。他出生于纽约长岛一个非常普通的中产阶级家庭，26岁时在自己的两居室公寓内创办了桥 水。经过50年的发展，桥水成为全球知名的资产管理公司，位列'美国最重要的私营公司'榜单第5位 （《财富》杂志）。他曾入选《时代》周刊'世界100位最具影响力人物'，并跻身《福布斯》杂志世界 前100名富豪行列。由于他独到的投资准则改变了基金业，投资界著名刊物CIO称其为'投资界的史蒂夫· 乔布斯' ...

Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes that the world operates under five major forces: debt/money/economic cycles, internal order and chaos cycles, external order and chaos cycles, natural forces, and human creativity [3][6] - The next 5-10 years are expected to witness significant changes in major orders, as outlined in Dalio's new book "Why Nations Fail: Big Cycles" [6][28] - The current phase of the debt cycle is nearing its end, with a high probability of significant restructuring or monetization of debt assets within the next 5-10 years [7][9] Group 2 - Internal political volatility is expected to lead to a shift from democracy to authoritarianism within 3-5 years, driven by deepening political divisions and dissatisfaction with democratic processes [10][11] - The transition from democracy to authoritarianism often occurs within the framework of democratic rules and can escalate quickly [12][14] - The U.S. is experiencing significant political challenges, with a small percentage of the population holding a disproportionate amount of wealth and power, leading to societal instability [15] Group 3 - The international order is shifting from a cooperative multilateral approach to a more confrontational unilateral one, with increasing tensions between the U.S. and China [17][20] - The dynamics of alliances are changing rapidly, with historical examples showing that loyalty is often secondary to victory [18] - The U.S. is attempting to reverse its relative decline while engaging in various forms of conflict with China, including trade and technology wars [20][21] Group 4 - The frequency and cost of natural disasters are expected to rise due to human impact on the environment, population density, and global connectivity [21] - Countries with heavy debt burdens may struggle to allocate resources for disaster prevention and response, leading to increased domestic conflicts and migration pressures [21] Group 5 - The potential for exponential growth in GDP and life expectancy is linked to advancements in artificial intelligence and technology [23][28] - The competition between the U.S. and China in technology development, particularly in AI and semiconductor production, is intensifying [24][26] - The ability to effectively utilize new technologies will create significant disparities in performance among nations and companies [24][25]

文 | Ray Dalio 来源 | 地平线全球策略 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 美中第一阶段协议迅速达成，过程合理，也让人对后续谈判抱有一定乐观预期。 此时，特朗普及其团队正前往中东展开访问，推动一系列投资交易——我相信他们会取得进 展，同时这也可能带来其他更具建设性的贸易协议。 不久之后，他们将试图与国会就预算达成协议，尽管我对这一点的成功并不太有信心。与此同 时，伊朗协议和俄乌问题上也在酝酿一些可能的突破，我判断后续将会有所进展。 在我看来，这个世界正在被两类问题驱动： 一类是每天占据媒体头条、吸引注意力并引发市场短期波动的事件；另一类则是背后真正驱动全球 秩序变革的深层力量 。 虽然两者都应关注，但决定未来走向的，是那些结构性的大趋势。因此，不应因短期事件而忽视这 些决定性力量，特别是在投资判断中，这一视角尤为重要。 回到根本，目前正在推动全球格局演变的五大力量包括： 1）债务与货币体系：影响市场和经济的核心变量，决定未来的货币秩序； 2）国内贫富与价值观分裂：这是重塑政治格局的核心力量； 3）国际秩序/无序化进程：决定世界秩序的演变路径； 4）自然力量：包括干旱、水灾、疫情等； 5）人类 ...