内需增量

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宏观深度报告20250717:寻找内需增量:发挥最低工资的“灯塔效应”
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-17 07:32
Group 1: Minimum Wage Impact - The minimum wage system can enhance residents' income through a "lighthouse effect," benefiting not only low-income groups but also those earning above the minimum wage, thus promoting income growth for the middle class and lower class[1] - During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period (2011-2015), the average annual growth rate of minimum wage reached approximately 13%, coinciding with a 2.7 percentage point increase in labor compensation's share of GDP from 2010 to 2015[1] - After 2015, the growth rate of minimum wage declined to an average of 3.3% per year, resulting in a decrease in labor compensation's share of GDP from 35.9% in 2015 to 29.3% in 2020[7] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To increase minimum wage, it is suggested to set growth targets that are moderately higher than economic growth rates, aiming for a minimum wage that reaches about 50% of the average wage[29] - Implementing a differentiated minimum wage system that considers industry, occupation, and skill levels can better reflect the intrinsic value of different jobs and attract talent[29] - Germany's model, which combines a national minimum wage with industry-specific minimum wages, can serve as a reference for establishing a similar system in China[27] Group 3: Recent Developments - In March 2025, the central government proposed to improve the minimum wage adjustment mechanism, with several regions raising their minimum wage by 7.6% to 14.2% in the first half of the year[28] - The current minimum wage standards across various regions in China vary significantly, with the highest being 2,520 yuan in Shenzhen and 2,500 yuan in Guangdong[15] - As of 2025, 90% of countries globally have established minimum wage systems, with 52% using a single minimum wage and 48% employing a multi-tiered system[16]