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宏观深度报告:寻找内需增量,发挥最低工资的“灯塔效应”
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-17 09:20
Group 1: Minimum Wage Impact - The minimum wage system can enhance residents' income through a "lighthouse effect," benefiting both low-income and higher-income groups, thus promoting income growth for the middle class and reducing poverty[4] - During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period (2011-2015), the average annual growth rate of minimum wage reached approximately 13%, coinciding with a 2.7 percentage point increase in labor compensation's share of GDP[4] - After 2015, the growth rate of minimum wage slowed to about 3.3% annually, leading to a decrease in labor compensation's share of GDP from 35.9% in 2015 to 29.3% in 2020[13] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To stimulate consumption and counteract "involution," adjusting minimum wage is a key strategy, with several regions raising minimum wage by 7.6% to 14.2% in 2025[39] - Setting a minimum wage growth target above economic growth rates is recommended, aiming for a ratio of minimum wage to average wage and per capita GDP to reach around 50%[41] - Implementing a differentiated minimum wage system based on industry, occupation, and skill levels can better reflect the value of different jobs and attract talent[41] Group 3: International Comparisons - Globally, 90% of countries have established minimum wage systems, with 52% using a single minimum wage and 48% employing a multi-tiered system[24] - Germany serves as a model with a national minimum wage of €12.82 per hour in 2025, with specific industries having higher rates, such as €19.37 for educators and €15.50 for caregivers[38] - The relative minimum wage in many countries is about 52.3% of per capita GDP, indicating a correlation between economic development and minimum wage levels[30]
宏观深度报告20250717:寻找内需增量:发挥最低工资的“灯塔效应”
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-17 07:32
相关研究 《城市更新的空间有多大?——2025 年 7 月中央城市工作会议点评》 2025-07-15 《5.2%之后,下半年还有哪些变数? 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250717 寻找内需增量:发挥最低工资的"灯塔效应" 2025 年 07 月 17 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书:S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书:S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn ——6 月和 Q2 经济数据点评》 2025-07-15 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 最低工资制度可以发挥增加居民收入的"灯塔效应",不仅能提高低收 入群体的工资,也会对高于最低工资线的群体起到溢出效应,从而起到 "扩中提低"的增收作用。从历史数据来看,在最低工资标准上调较快 的时期,我国整体的劳动报酬比重也会较快上升。我国最低工资增速最 快的是"十二五"期间,年均增速达到 13%左右,这也是我国劳动报酬 占 GDP 比重提升最快的时候,2010 ...