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这个组合还能玩下去吗?
集思录· 2025-09-23 14:14
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of the Permanent Portfolio proposed by Harry Browne, which consists of 25% stocks, 25% long-term government bonds, 25% gold, and 25% cash, and questions its viability in the current high valuation environment of these asset classes [1][7]. Investment Portfolio Analysis - The expected return of the Permanent Portfolio may only be around 5%, with potential losses in unfavorable years, as stocks are the primary source of returns, and their contribution is limited due to the 25% allocation [1]. - Concerns are raised about the long-term performance of gold, long-term government bonds, and cash, questioning the ability to hold these assets without significant returns or facing purchasing power erosion [1][5]. Alternative Portfolio Suggestions - Some investors suggest adjusting the asset allocation, increasing equity exposure to 50% while considering the realities of the Chinese stock market, and replacing ordinary stocks with convertible bonds or stocks with cash options to mitigate risks during bear markets [4]. - The idea of not maintaining a fixed cash allocation is proposed, allowing for opportunistic adjustments based on market conditions [5]. Personalization of Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of personalizing investment strategies rather than strictly adhering to Browne's model, suggesting that investors can adapt the framework to include commodities, digital currencies, and internal asset rotation [8]. - It highlights the potential for leveraging strategies using futures and options to enhance returns while maintaining a diversified portfolio [8]. Conclusion - The article concludes that while Browne's framework provides a foundational approach to asset allocation, investors should feel free to modify it according to their risk tolerance, market conditions, and investment goals [7][8].