Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical risks, and commodity price volatility on asset allocation strategies for businesses in 2026, emphasizing the need for companies to adapt and utilize derivative tools to enhance competitiveness in uncertain environments [6][8][9]. Macroeconomic Perspective - The macroeconomic forum will feature discussions on the 2026 economic outlook and investment strategies for major asset classes, highlighting the importance of understanding global economic trends [14][16][17]. Industry Perspective - The article outlines three closed-door sessions focusing on different sectors: non-ferrous metals, black metals, and new energy, each addressing specific industry challenges and potential solutions [7][9][10]. - In the non-ferrous metals session, the core issue revolves around the transformation of demand and the potential for a bull market in 2026, with a focus on how companies can leverage derivative tools [8][18]. - The black metals session will explore the impact of geopolitical risks and the dual carbon goals on supply-demand dynamics, aiming to identify opportunities and risks in the steel market [9][19]. - The new energy session will discuss the supply-demand shifts in lithium and silicon, emphasizing the volatility in prices and the strategic use of derivatives to maintain competitive advantages [10][22]. Practical Applications - The article emphasizes the need for companies to adopt practical solutions to navigate the increasing uncertainty in global markets, particularly through the use of futures and options [6][8][9]. - Each industry session will provide actionable insights and strategies for businesses to enhance their market positioning amidst changing economic conditions [7][9][10].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From March 23 to March 27, the Middle - East situation continued to affect the prices of major asset classes. Globally, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds continued to decline, and commodities showed relatively strong performance. In China, stocks and commodities declined, while the bond market fluctuated. Overall, in dollar terms, commodities > bonds > stocks globally, and bonds > commodities > stocks in China. The Middle - East situation remains highly uncertain and will continue to impact major asset prices in the short term [3][6][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Global Major Asset Performance 1.1 Global Stock Market Overview - Most major global stock markets declined in the week from March 23 to March 27. US stocks had the largest decline, and emerging markets underperformed developed markets. The VIX index rose weekly. For specific regions, in the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region dropped 1.52%, and the South Korean Composite Index fell 5.92%. In the European market, the ASCI Europe rose 0.12%. In the American market, the MSCI US declined 2.11%. In other markets, the Tel - Aviv 125 Index fell 5.22% [8][9][10] 1.2 Global Bond Market Overview - In the week of March 23 - 27, the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 5BP to 4.44%. The bond market declined weekly, with the performance order globally being credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds. The global bond index fell 0.49%, the global government bond index dropped 0.58%, and the global credit bond index decreased 0.38% [12] 1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview - From March 23 to March 27, the market's risk - aversion sentiment continued, and the US dollar index rose weekly, with a 0.67% increase. Most major non - US currencies declined against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated weakly [12] 1.4 Global Commodity Market Overview - Geopolitical factors supported the weekly increase in international oil prices. Most prices of major international precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products rose. The CRB spot index: comprehensive rose 1.41%, Brent crude oil increased 1.80%, and WTI crude oil rose 3.15% [14][15] 2. Domestic Major Asset Performance 2.1 Domestic Stock Market Overview - Investor sentiment remained cautious. Major A - share broad - based indices generally declined, and the average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. The CSI 500 index was more resilient. The basic chemicals and non - ferrous metals sectors rose, while the non - banking and computer sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09% [18][19] 2.2 Domestic Bond Market Overview - From March 23 to March 27, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 281.9 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively stable, and the bond market fluctuated slightly stronger. Overall, government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds. The ChinaBond - Total Wealth (Aggregate) Index rose 0.09% [20][21] 2.3 Domestic Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among major commodity sectors, the chemical and non - ferrous sectors had the largest increases, while precious metals performed poorly. The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.25% [22][23] 3. Outlook for Major Asset Prices - Overall, the Middle - East situation remains highly uncertain and will continue to have a certain impact on major asset prices in the short term. It is necessary to closely monitor its changes [27]

Report Information - Report Title: "Peripheral Drag Continues, Awaiting Volume Breakout Opportunity - Stock Index Weekly Report 2026.03.30" [1] - Author: Li Weihong from the Digital Finance Department - Contact Information: Phone 0371 - 68599157, Email liwh_qh@ccnew.com, Investment Consulting Number Z0017812 Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Strategically, there's no need to be overly pessimistic about A - shares as China's long - term economic development provides solid support, and domestic capital market supervision and macro - decision - making focus on market stability. The US being in a passive situation in the Middle East objectively creates a more favorable strategic environment for China [2]. - Before the holiday, the four major indices were mainly in a volatile adjustment. The CSI 300 fell 1.41% weekly, the SSE 50 fell 1.61%, the CSI 500 fell 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.48%. The average daily trading volume of the four major indices decreased slightly compared to the previous week [2]. - The cumulative balance of margin trading purchases decreased by 4.577 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the margin trading balance dropped to 2.59 trillion yuan [2]. - If there's sudden bad news leading to a double - bottom in the index, it's likely a medium - term relative low with more opportunities than risks. The primary goal of the Shanghai Composite Index is to fill the gap. April is a period for market layout after risk release in March. If the market can hold the recent bottom - oscillating range with increased volume on Monday, the probability of short - term stabilization is high [2]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **Weekly Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.09%, the SSE 50 fell 1.61%, the CSI 300 fell 1.41%, the STAR 50 fell 1.33%, the CSI 500 fell 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.68%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.48%. The trading volume of some indices decreased, such as the CSI 300 with a 4.10% decrease [8]. - **Domestic Data**: Analyzed the valuation levels of the four major indices, volatility, and basis of stock index futures, and showed the trends of domestic and foreign indices and their volatility [10][14][20]. 02 Macro - analysis - **Domestic Macro**: Covered GDP growth rate, state - owned industrial enterprise profits, social consumption, industrial added value, fixed - asset investment in different sectors, manufacturing PMI, price indices, import and export data, as well as high - frequency data related to industry and real estate [26][30][32]. - **Foreign Macro**: Included data on the US's new non - farm employment, inflation, unemployment rate, and manufacturing and service PMI, as well as the eurozone's inflation and PMI [60][62]. 03 Market Sentiment - **Funding Aspect**: The short - and long - term capital costs remained stable. The net currency injection in open - market operations and SHIBOR rates were presented [70]. - **Sentiment Aspect**: The buying interest of domestic funds declined slightly. Data such as two - market trading volume, public fund net value, share, number, and margin trading balance were shown [75]. This Week's Important Market Information - Many small and medium - sized banks have recently adjusted their deposit interest rates, with a downward trend expected to continue. Long - term product rates may further decline, and short - term product proportion may increase [80]. - Geopolitically, the global market is watching the Middle East situation, and the G7 will discuss releasing strategic oil reserves. Macro - level data such as China's March official PMI and the US's March non - farm data will be released. In the industrial field, China's photovoltaic export tax rebate will be cancelled on April 1, semiconductor and passive component companies have raised prices, and many star companies will disclose their earnings [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The pricing of crude oil this year is dominated by geopolitical risks. In the short term, it is significantly driven by supply shocks and rises sharply. The price center shows a systematic increase compared to the pre - war level. The price may show a pattern of "soaring in the first quarter and then declining quarter by quarter". As strategic reserves are released and alternative supplies are restored, the geopolitical premium may gradually fade. High oil prices lead to stagflation pressure by pushing up inflation and suppressing growth, and delay the interest - rate cut rhythm of major central banks. The high - interest - rate environment may continue. It is recommended to hold cash and seize the opportunity to invest in stocks and bonds. Gold can also be added appropriately [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. How to view the oil price center and rhythm this year? - The oil price trend is dominated by the intensity expectation of geopolitical events and the reversal of news, showing a high - level wide - range shock. Before the complete end of the US - Iran conflict, even with measures such as releasing reserves, the oil price center will still rise significantly compared to the pre - war level. In a neutral scenario, the oil price in the second quarter may remain above $100 per barrel, and by the end of the year, it may still exceed the pre - war level, reaching over $80 per barrel [5][15]. - In the extreme scenario of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the global crude oil supply gap can reach more than 14 million barrels per day, corresponding to a supply contraction of about 13.6%, and the theoretical oil price may rise to $138 per barrel. If strategic reserve release and OPEC +'s remaining production capacity are considered, the gap narrows to about 10.5 million barrels per day, and the oil price center is around $121 per barrel [5]. - The oil price may show a "high in the front and low in the back" trend this year. Recently, the oil price has been directly affected by the supply cut, and the center has risen rapidly. In the short - term, in a pessimistic scenario, the oil price is expected to rise to $130 per barrel; in a neutral scenario, it is expected to be $115 per barrel; in an optimistic scenario, it will still reach a high of $101 per barrel. As time goes by, the probability of a cease - fire increases quarter by quarter, the market's expectation of the supply gap narrows, and the geopolitical risk premium decays quarter by quarter from the second to the fourth quarter [6][29]. 2. What are the impacts of persistently high oil prices? 2.1 How do high oil prices affect inflation and the economy? - A 10% increase in oil prices may lead to an increase of about 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points in US and global inflation respectively. Overseas institutions have different estimates of the impact of a 10% oil - price increase on US inflation, ranging from 0.15 to 0.35 percentage points, and on global inflation, ranging from 0.35 to 0.4 percentage points [7][33]. - A 10% increase in oil prices may lead to a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease in US GDP, and also has a certain suppressing effect on the global economy [34]. - As inflation expectations rise in the future, the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and space will be greatly disturbed, and there is a possibility of a subsequent shift to interest - rate hikes. The increase in energy prices raises inflation expectations and delays the market's pricing of the Fed's interest - rate cut path, and the Fed may maintain high interest rates for a longer time [7][36]. 2.2 How did persistently high oil prices lead to stagflation in history? - Oil - price increases lead to price increases and economic slowdown through multiple channels, including supply, demand, exchange - rate, and interest - rate channels, which ultimately lead to a decline in residents' purchasing power, weakening of corporate profits and investment, slowdown in global growth, and significant increases in inflation and market volatility [40]. - In the 1970s, events such as the Fourth Middle East War, the Iran - Iraq War, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, combined with other economic factors, led to significant increases in oil prices, inflation, and interest rates, resulting in stagflation [42][43][44]. 2.3 How to allocate major asset classes if stagflation reappears? - If stagflation occurs, it is recommended to hold cash (US dollar short - term bonds or deposits) to maintain liquidity and add gold appropriately. Seize the opportunity to invest in stocks and bonds [7][46]. - After historical geopolitical conflicts leading to stagflation, different asset classes have different performances. For example, after the Fourth Middle East War, stocks and bonds fell, and commodities were strong; after the Iran - Iraq War, stocks, bonds, and commodities were all damaged, and the US dollar index was strong; after the Russia - Ukraine conflict, stocks, bonds, and commodities were all damaged, and the US dollar performed well [46][49][50]. - If stagflation reappears, stocks and bonds may still face callbacks due to repricing, and the impact on the domestic market is expected to be smaller. The US bond yield will rise overall, commodities will first rise and then fall, and gold will perform well. The US dollar will perform prominently [57][62][64].

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - Industrial enterprises in China achieved a total profit of 10,245.6 billion yuan in January-February 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.2%, significantly accelerating by 14.6 percentage points compared to December 2025 [5][6][8] - The mining industry's profit total increased by 9.9% year-on-year in January-February 2026, contributing 1.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [7] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - Jianfa International Group reported a revenue of 136.79 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.65 billion yuan, down 24.0% year-on-year [12] - The company proposed a cash dividend of 0.9 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 49% [12] - The company's gross profit margin improved for two consecutive years, reaching 13.9% in 2025, an increase of 0.6 percentage points [12][13] Group 3: Basic Chemical Industry - Satellite Chemical achieved a revenue of 46.068 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.92%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.54% to 5.311 billion yuan [18] - The company maintained a buy rating due to its advantages in light hydrocarbon integration technology [18][19] - The global petrochemical industry is transitioning towards a focus on integration and optimization, enhancing the importance of light hydrocarbon routes [20] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Jianfa International Group is expected to achieve revenues of 138.1 billion yuan, 141.9 billion yuan, and 146.4 billion yuan from 2026 to 2028, with corresponding net profits of 4.1 billion yuan, 4.7 billion yuan, and 5.4 billion yuan [16] - Satellite Chemical's projected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 7.952 billion yuan, 9.355 billion yuan, and 9.740 billion yuan, respectively, with a strong buy rating maintained [22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From March 23rd to March 27th, 2026, the equity market fluctuated downward overall. The A - share market and the Hong Kong stock market both declined, while the convertible bond market recovered, the bond market was strong, and the commodity futures performance was differentiated [5][10][11]. - The equity market's weekly trend was first down and then up. The initial decline was due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the Fed's hawkish stance, and the subsequent rise was driven by Trump's signal of easing and indirect negotiations between the US and Iran [14]. - The convertible bond market went up this week, but the trading activity decreased significantly, and it may still be affected by the US - Iran conflict in the short term [18]. - The bond market yield mainly declined this week. The initial pressure was due to inflation concerns caused by high oil prices, and the subsequent decline in inflation expectations was affected by the easing of the US - Israel - Iran situation, but the rebound of risk assets restricted the decline of interest rates. The liquidity was stable near the end - of - quarter point [22]. - The South China Commodity Index showed a differentiated performance this week, with precious metals leading the decline and metals strengthening. Gold prices continued to fluctuate downward, and the short - term trend may still be volatile [32][33]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. This Week's Performance of Major Asset Classes - The equity market fluctuated downward. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.68%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index fell 1.41%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.29%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.94%. The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 10.49 trillion yuan [5][10][13]. - The convertible bond market recovered. The China Securities Convertible Bond Index rose 1.28% this week and fell 5% in the past month; the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 1.06% this week and fell 5.56% in the past month [5][10][13]. - The bond market was strong. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Bond Treasury bonds all declined [5][10][22]. - The commodity futures performance was differentiated. COMEX gold fell 0.05%, COMEX silver rose 2.89%, LME copper rose 2.59%, LME aluminum rose 2.9%, WTI crude oil rose 1.44%, SHFE rebar rose 0.03%, CBOT soybeans fell 0.09%, and CBOT corn fell 0.97% [5][11][13]. 2. Performance of the Equity Market - Stocks - The equity market fluctuated downward this week. The Shanghai Composite Index adjusted at the beginning of the week, then rose, declined slightly on Thursday, and closed up on Friday [14]. - Most industries fell this week. Non - bank finance, comprehensive finance, computer, media, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the decline, while power and public utilities, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals led the rise [14]. - The market rotation was still active this week. The rebound was mainly driven by previous main lines such as computing power, non - ferrous metals, and power. In addition, the innovative drug and new energy sectors also performed well [14]. 3. Performance of the Equity Market - Convertible Bonds - The equity market fluctuated weakly this week, but the convertible bond market rose. The China Securities Convertible Bond Index rose 1.28% and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 1.06% this week. The trading volume of convertible bonds and underlying stocks decreased significantly compared with last week [18]. - The convertible bond market may still be affected by the US - Iran conflict in the short term [18]. 4. Performance of the Fixed - Income Market - The bond market yield mainly declined this week. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Bond Treasury bonds all declined [22]. - The initial pressure on the bond market was due to inflation concerns caused by high oil prices, and the subsequent decline in inflation expectations was affected by the easing of the US - Israel - Iran situation, but the rebound of risk assets restricted the decline of interest rates [22]. - The liquidity was stable near the end - of - quarter point, which may have moderated the adjustment range of the bond market [22]. 5. Performance of the Commodity Market - The South China Commodity Index showed a differentiated performance this week. The comprehensive index fell 0.25%, the energy and chemical index fell 0.12%, the metal index rose 1.45%, the precious metal index fell 2.75%, the industrial product index rose 0.04%, and the agricultural product index fell 1.15% [32]. - The gold price continued to fluctuate downward this week. The short - term trend may still be volatile, and it may need the easing of the US - Israel - Iran situation to strengthen again [33].

Core Insights - The current geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are leading to significant volatility in global energy markets, reminiscent of the oil crises of the 1970s [4][9][10] - Historical analysis indicates that inflation and monetary policy are more critical determinants of US Treasury yields than direct impacts from wars [2][25] - The current macroeconomic environment features high oil prices, inflation, and interest rates, which are reshaping asset pricing logic globally [32][33] Group 1: US-Iran Conflict Dynamics - The US-Iran conflict has escalated, with Iran conducting missile strikes on key Israeli cities and US military bases in the region, indicating a significant increase in military engagement [6][7] - Diplomatic signals from both sides have been inconsistent, with the US issuing ultimatums while simultaneously engaging in dialogue, reflecting a complex geopolitical landscape [4][7] Group 2: Comparison of Current Energy Crisis with Historical Events - The potential scale of the current energy supply shock could exceed that of the 1970s oil crises, with historical precedents showing that such shocks can lead to macroeconomic turning points [9][10] - Unlike the 1970s, the current energy intensity of developed economies has decreased significantly, which may mitigate the economic impact of rising oil prices [15][16] Group 3: US Treasury Debt Outlook - The US federal debt has surged to nearly $40 trillion, with a rapid increase in borrowing driven by military expenditures and structural fiscal deficits [17][19] - Rising interest payments on this debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and the potential for a debt spiral [19][20] Group 4: Asset Pricing Changes - The core logic of global asset pricing is shifting towards a framework characterized by high energy costs, persistent inflation, and policy uncertainty, leading to a new normal of "high cost + high interest + high volatility" [32][33] - The traditional relationship where geopolitical risks lead to a flight to safety in US Treasuries is changing, with inflation and supply constraints now playing a more dominant role in determining yields [33][34]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market trends, valuation metrics, and style performance without detailing quantitative model construction or factor definitions[1][2][3] - Key metrics such as PE_TTM, ERP, and style indices are discussed, but no explicit quantitative models or factors are constructed or tested[40][50][60]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock side employs a small-cap value portfolio combined with a non-timing stock-bond monthly rebalancing strategy of 10/90 and 20/80, with cumulative returns of 1.66% and 2.93% respectively by 2026 [1] - As of March 20, 2026, the total market size of fixed income + funds reached 23,828.50 billion, with 1,179 products, and 100 of these funds reached historical net value highs last week [2][10] - The performance median of various fund types showed divergence, with mixed bond type I at -0.03%, mixed bond type II at -0.62%, and other types showing negative returns [2][14] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 indicates a slowdown, with the CSI 300 index down 3.05% and the total wealth index of government bonds down 0.25% in March 2026 [3] - Recommended industry ETFs for March 2026 include coal, petrochemical, infrastructure engineering, communication equipment, and steel ETFs, with a combined return of -5.80% last week [3] - The absolute return strategy performance tracking shows that the macro-timing driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy had a return of -0.18% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy returned -0.08% [4] Group 3 - The small-cap value style performed best in the stock-bond 20/80 combination with a year-to-date return of 2.93%, while other strategies showed lower returns when adjusted to a 10/90 allocation [4] - The report highlights that the absolute return products have a total of 100 funds reaching historical highs, including 83 mixed bond type I funds and 12 mixed bond type II funds [22] - The report also notes that conservative funds outperformed balanced and aggressive funds in terms of holding experience, with median quarterly win rates of 80.0% for mixed bond type I funds [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between oil prices and major asset prices is not simply linear and exhibits threshold effects, where crossing certain critical oil price levels leads to significantly different asset responses [1][7]. Group 1: Threshold Mechanisms - Three transmission mechanisms for the threshold effect of oil prices on assets are identified: investor psychological anchors, central bank tolerance levels, and corporate breakeven points [1][7]. - The threshold effects can be categorized into three types: level threshold, slope threshold, and viscosity threshold [1][7]. Group 2: Setting Thresholds - The level thresholds are defined based on historical oil price distributions, with $75/barrel marking the low-medium boundary and $100/barrel the medium-high boundary [2][11]. - The slope threshold is defined as a monthly oil price increase exceeding 15%, which has occurred in less than 4% of the historical data [2][14]. - The viscosity threshold is identified as a continuous three-month increase in oil prices, indicating a significant market trend [2][18]. Group 3: Asset Performance at Different Oil Price Levels - Historical performance shows that asset returns form an inverted U-shape in relation to oil price levels, with the Nasdaq performing best in the medium oil price range, averaging a 2.61% increase in the following months [3][20]. - In the high oil price range, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still perform better than in the low oil price range, indicating resilience in nominal growth cycles [3][20]. - The bond market reacts differently, with a 42 basis point increase in yields when oil prices enter the high range, reflecting inflation and liquidity concerns [3][21]. Group 4: Interaction of Level and Slope Thresholds - When both the medium oil price and a monthly increase exceeding 15% occur, bond yields rise significantly, averaging a 63 basis point increase over two months [4][27]. - The high oil price combined with a significant monthly increase indicates a market expectation of economic hard landing risks, leading to a shift in pricing dynamics [4][27]. Group 5: Interaction of Level and Viscosity Thresholds - In the medium oil price range with three consecutive months of increases, bond yields stabilize, indicating a moderate inflation environment [5][32]. - Conversely, in the high oil price scenario with three months of increases, the market anticipates tighter monetary policy, affecting asset performance [5][32]. Group 6: Sensitivity of Assets to Oil Price Changes - The sensitivity of major assets to oil price changes varies significantly across different price thresholds, with a critical shift occurring at the $100/barrel mark [6][39]. - In the medium oil price range, the stock market exhibits a positive sensitivity to oil price increases, while this reverses in the high oil price range, indicating a shift from demand-driven to cost-push dynamics [6][40].