以下文章来源于思哲与创富 ，作者思哲 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 作者： 思哲与创富 来源：雪球 昨天有个人评论区说自己已经满仓满融科技了。 吃肉我倒不羡慕 ，因为我知道跑得不够快的话 ， 老寒腿可能随时被埋里面 。 思哲与创富 . 全天候-永久投资策略投顾主理人，全球资产配置，为你做好家庭投资框架，穿越牛熊 看我文章比较久的读者 ， 应该也知道 ， 我是一个全球多元资产配置理念的践行者 ， 行业都很少配置 ， 更何况是一些高估值行业。 更多是资产包里面放多少比例的价值股 ， 成长股 ， 大类资产可以配置黄金 、 美债 、 美股ETF等等 ， 不少人对 资产配置 还是没啥概念 ， 觉得我这么分散肯定赚不到钱 ， 只有集中火力all in才能赚个大的。 这里我别的不说哈 ， 你们可以自己回测一下基金组合 ， 看下资产配置策略怎么样 ， 这里以 永久投资组合 为例 ， 输入 纳斯达克100 、 标普 500 、 美元债 、 中债 、 黄金。 我们设置纳斯达克100配比12.5% ， 标普500配比12.5% ， 黄金配比25% ， 中债25% ， 美债25% ， 然后就可以生成一个永久策略的历史数据回测图 ...

读《哈利布朗的永久投资组合》一书，发现了很多需要补充的细节。 回顾一下永久组合的内容： 25%股票：受益于经济繁荣（增长）。 25%长期国债：受益于经济衰退和利率下降（通缩）。 25%黄金：受益于货币信用危机和通货膨胀（避险）。 25%现金：提供流动性，并在通缩中增强购买力（稳定）。 目前股票，30年国债，黄金，怎么都感觉在高位 这个组合还能玩下去吗？ 数据A 这种投资组合，收益可能就只有5%左右，不好的年份还会亏损。 其它三种都是稳定资产。最大的收益来源是股票，遇到牛市股票就算涨100%，因为四分之一 的仓位，带来的整体收益也只有25%。 你能忍受黄金10年不涨吗？ 你能忍受30年国债持有10年后反而亏损吗？ 你能忍受现金不断超发，货币购买力不断下降吗？ hare001 我配置过，30 年国债涨幅基本都吃到了，目前保留的是现金、标普 500 和黄金，总体感觉 还行吧，也是弱者思维，不择时，回撤也不会有特别大的回撤，被动按照持仓比例进行调 仓，我觉得最好不要把现金池子完全归入这个组合，不然工资和其他收入其实是一直在加仓 其他三类资产的。 imaocxh 30%大A+20%港股+20%美股+20%商品+10%现 ...

Group 1 - The concept of a Permanent Investment Portfolio was introduced by Harry Browne in the 1980s, aiming for stable returns through diversification across different economic conditions [2] - The portfolio consists of four asset classes: 25% stocks, 25% long-term bonds, 25% cash (short-term treasury bills), and 25% gold [2] - The design of this portfolio is intended to cover various economic scenarios, including prosperity, inflation, recession, and deflation [4][5] Group 2 - During periods of prosperity, stocks perform best due to increased corporate earnings driving up stock prices [5] - In inflationary periods, gold appreciates due to its value preservation properties as prices rise and currency devalues [5] - In recessionary periods, long-term bond prices increase as interest rates typically decline [5] - In deflationary periods, cash provides safety and flexibility amidst economic contraction and market volatility [5] Group 3 - Steps to implement a Permanent Investment Portfolio include allocating 25% of investment capital to each asset class and selecting appropriate initial investment tools [6][7] - Regular rebalancing of the portfolio is necessary to maintain the 25% allocation for each asset class, which involves selling outperforming assets and buying underperforming ones [8] Group 4 - Historical performance since 1964 shows an annualized return of approximately 8.5% for the Permanent Investment Portfolio, with lower volatility compared to a 60/40 portfolio [9] - Backtesting results for a Nasdaq 100 version of the portfolio indicate a cumulative return of about 135% over ten years, with an annualized return of 8.89% and a maximum drawdown of 8.57% [9][10] - The backtest for a CSI 300 version shows a cumulative return of 78% over ten years, with an annualized return of 5.98% and a maximum drawdown of 9.95% [12] Group 5 - The Permanent Investment Portfolio is designed to be a "permanent" strategy, requiring infrequent adjustments, making it suitable for investors who prefer low trading frequency [14] - It is considered a safe and stable strategy, particularly for low-risk investors focused on wealth preservation [14] - Potential limitations include the performance of long-term bonds in rising interest rate environments and the overall performance lag during prolonged economic booms [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the Permanent Portfolio strategy, which aims to mitigate risks and achieve long-term growth by diversifying across four asset classes: stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, each allocated 25% [3][5][9]. Group 1: Permanent Portfolio Strategy - The Permanent Portfolio consists of four asset classes: stocks (25%), gold (25%), cash (25%), and bonds (25%), designed to respond to different economic cycles [9][10]. - The strategy is not about maximizing returns but about avoiding significant losses and controlling volatility, adhering to the principle of "staying the course" through economic fluctuations [11][12]. - The portfolio is built without market timing, with an initial allocation made at the inception of the strategy, and adjustments are made only when asset allocations deviate significantly from the target [12][14]. Group 2: Historical Performance - Historical data shows that from 1971 to 2011, the Permanent Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 9.5%, slightly below that of stocks but with much lower volatility [21][22]. - A more recent analysis from January 2008 to March 2025 indicates that the Permanent Portfolio had a long-term annualized return of 6.2%, compared to 10.13% for the S&P 500 ETF, with a significantly lower maximum drawdown of -15.92% [25][26][29]. Group 3: Application in A-shares - The article discusses the feasibility of applying the Permanent Portfolio strategy in the A-share market, suggesting suitable ETFs for each asset class, including the CSI 300 ETF and 10-year government bond ETF [31][32]. - A backtest from August 2017 to the present shows that the A-share Permanent Portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 56.9%, with an annualized return of approximately 6.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [35][36]. Group 4: Portfolio Optimization - Recommendations for optimizing the portfolio include diversifying stock holdings with low-fee index funds, considering a mix of 10-year and 30-year bonds, and selecting lower-fee gold products or a portion of physical gold [38][39].

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让 我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有据。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：六亿居士 永久投资组合 ： 以不变应万变 永久投资组合的核心策略是采用不同的大类资产 ， 以应对经济周期中的不同阶段 ， 从而实现风险的对冲与 长期向上的目的 。 下面这张图 ， 相信大家并不陌生 ： 来源：雪球 随着经验逐步丰富 ， 我们会逐步了解到一些知名的投资策略组合 。 比如常见的 股债配比 模型 、 达利欧 倡导的 全天候策略 、 大卫 · 斯文森提出的 耶鲁模型 以及哈利 · 布朗提出的 —— 永久投资组合 。 在诸多知名的投资策略中 ， 上述四个体系是我们学习组建投资组合的常见范本 。 虽然从细节上存在诸多差 异 ， 但这类策略的目的均不是追求极致的收益 ， 而是避免陷入不可挽回的损失 。 市场具有不确定性 ， 我们无法避开这个基本前提 。 因此 ， 在投资这场马拉松中 ， 活得久远比跑得快更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by investors in uncertain market conditions, particularly highlighting the historical context of inflation and market downturns, and introduces the concept of a "Permanent Portfolio" as a strategy for risk management and steady returns [2][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Analysis - In 2025, the U.S. stock market experienced significant declines due to uncertain tariff policies, with economic growth forecasts being downgraded and rising unemployment and inflation expectations, raising concerns about stagflation risks [2]. - Historical parallels are drawn to 1981, where high inflation and declining asset values led to a challenging investment environment, with the S&P 500 index falling by 5% and long-term government bonds dropping by 9% [2]. - The article notes that in 2022, aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve led to severe market volatility, with the Nasdaq index plummeting by 33% and bond markets experiencing rare declines [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The "Permanent Portfolio" strategy proposed by Harry Browne involves dividing investments equally among stocks, long-term government bonds, cash, and gold, aiming to balance risk and returns [3][4]. - The core logic of the Permanent Portfolio is to diversify risk, balance assets, and maintain long-term holdings, acknowledging the limitations of market predictions [4]. - Historical data indicates that the Permanent Portfolio strategy has achieved an annualized return of approximately 7% over the past 30 years, with volatility controlled below 9% and maximum drawdowns typically under 15% [5]. Group 3: Practical Implementation - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is introduced as a practical tool to replicate the Permanent Portfolio, helping investors diversify risk across three dimensions [6]. - The investment allocation includes stocks to capture economic growth, bonds for stability during downturns, gold for inflation hedging, and cash for flexibility [9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of asset diversification beyond just stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, suggesting the use of funds and international markets to enhance portfolio resilience [10]. Group 4: Performance Comparison - The article presents a performance comparison of the Permanent Portfolio against traditional 60/40 portfolios and single market investments, highlighting its lower volatility and drawdown during market downturns [22][24]. - Over the past five years, the Permanent Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 7.8% with a volatility of 7.3%, significantly lower than that of the A-share and U.S. stock markets [25][26]. - The Permanent Portfolio's maximum drawdown was limited to -9.2% during the market crash of 2022, showcasing its strong risk management capabilities [26].