早盘速递 2025/11/26 热点资讯 1. 据环球网，外交部发言人毛宁表示，特朗普总统第二任期以来，中美元首保持着经常性的交往。据我了解，此次通话是美 方发起的，通话的氛围是积极的、友好的、建设性的。两国元首就共同关心的问题进行沟通，对中美关系稳定发展十分重要。 2. 马士基首席执行官表示，我们对加沙的和平进程感到鼓舞，巴布曼德海峡的航行自由已得到确立，贸易路线也已实现正常 化。对于马士基及其客户而言，苏伊士运河是连接各市场的首选通道。 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 | 0.87 | -2.14 | 15.46 | | | | 上证50 | 0.60 | -1.44 | 10.56 | | | | 沪深300 | 0.95 | -3.24 | 14.12 | | | | 中证500 | 1.25 | -5.13 | 21.46 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 0.91 | -1.09 | 15.03 ...

| 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3931.05 | 4564.95 | 3008.29 | 3042.34 | 7061.95 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.40 | -0.51 | -0.40 | -1.12 | -0.85 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 14.14 | 12.03 | 32.17 | 25.98 | 18.06 | | 环比变化 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.27 | -0.41 | 0.09 | | 风险溢价 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | 1/PE-10利率 | 3.70 | 5.77 | -0.38 | -0.24 | 2.82 | | 环比变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | -0.04 | | 资金流向 | A股 | 主板 | 中小企业板 | 创业板 | 沪 ...

•纽约梅隆银行：亚洲外储充足，进口覆盖率处于有利水平，区域抗风险能力强劲 转自：新华财经 •纽约梅隆银行（BNY）指出，尽管部分国家已动用储备稳定汇率，但整体外储仍处高位，区域内各国 进口覆盖率维持在"非常有利"的水平，抗风险能力较强。 •高盛策略师指出，2025年美元与VIX指数（美股波动率指标）的关系发生显著反转，过去五年二者正 相关（恐慌时美元走强），如今却常同步下跌，显示美元作为传统避险资产的吸引力正在减弱。过度关 注美元与标普500的相关性会掩盖其"挥之不去的脆弱性"，而这种脆弱性在美元与VIX的负向联动中更 为清晰，尽管近期相关性略有回归"正常"，但结构性变化值得警惕。 •德意志银行分析师表示，英伟达第三财季业绩显著超预期，在AI计算、网络、软件及系统领域持续领 跑，与同行差距或进一步拉大。管理层预计2025年初至2026年底数据中心相关收入将达约5000亿美元。 基于强劲增长动能，分析师已将英伟达2026–2027财年收入及每股收益预期上调"低双位数百分比"，并 强调其在人工智能基础设施领域的主导地位日益巩固。 •截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数为23.2万，与9月水平基本持平，未现恶化 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a bullish stance with a focus on support levels in various markets, suggesting that investors should look for buying opportunities as long as key support levels hold [5][9][19]. - In the A-share market, the report identifies the ChiNext index as leading the gains, with support levels at 3070 points for ChiNext and 3920 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [5][19]. - The report anticipates a continued downtrend in the bond market, particularly for 30-year government bonds, with a target near the low point from September 30, 2024 [4][15]. Group 2: Market Performance and Sector Analysis - The report notes improved market sentiment, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, batteries, and chemicals leading the gains, while technology stocks are expected to show divergence based on earnings support [5][19]. - The report highlights that the technology sector's absorption rate has fallen below 25%, indicating a release of crowded positions, but suggests that time is still insufficient for a full recovery [19][23]. - The energy metals and battery sectors are noted as strong performers, while banks and oil & gas development sectors are lagging [19]. Group 3: U.S. Market Insights - The report indicates that the end of the U.S. government shutdown has positively impacted U.S. stock markets, with the S&P 500 index showing support at approximately 6630 points [6][25]. - The potential implementation of a $2000 subsidy for low-income individuals by the Trump administration is highlighted as a factor that could significantly stimulate the U.S. economy, although its feasibility remains uncertain [6][25]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Markets - The report states that the onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.0964, reflecting a decline of 156 basis points, with expectations of a weaker dollar index in the short term [26]. - The Wenhua Commodity Index increased by 0.34%, with most sectors rising, except for a significant drop in the oil sector, suggesting a cautious approach to commodity investments [32].

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Core Points - Warren Buffett announced his retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, marking the end of an era in investment management [1][2][3] - Buffett reflects on his 80-year investment journey, attributing part of his success to luck and the historical context of his upbringing [4][5][10] - He emphasizes the importance of choosing role models and the value of kindness in the investment world [11][12][13] Company Insights - Buffett's departure raises questions about the future leadership and direction of Berkshire Hathaway [1][2] - The transition of management to successors indicates a strategic shift within the company [2] - Buffett's investment philosophy remains relevant, advocating for long-term investments in stable indices like the S&P 500 [19] Market Analysis - Current market conditions are perceived as expensive, with a recommendation to invest in quality assets over time [22] - The potential for a significant market downturn is acknowledged, but the focus remains on long-term value [23] - The performance of quality assets is expected to rebound, while poor assets may face rapid declines [25] Industry Trends - The impact of AI applications on profitability in the tech sector, particularly among Hong Kong internet companies, is noted [26][27] - Future advancements in power and computing capabilities may lead to a shift in profitability from AI computing firms to AI application companies [28] - The overall market is projected to fluctuate between 3500 and 4500 on the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating uncertainty in market predictions [29]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the Federal Reserve's decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) may be adding fuel to an already inflated bubble, rather than stimulating a depressed economy [1] Group 1: Current Economic Environment - The Fed's current easing policy is being implemented at a time of high asset valuations and relatively strong economic conditions, which Dalio describes as "stimulus into a bubble" [1] - The U.S. is in a dangerous phase of the "big debt cycle," characterized by a situation where the supply of U.S. Treasury bonds exceeds demand, leading the Fed to print money to purchase bonds [1][6] - Current asset valuations are high, with the S&P 500 earnings yield at 4.4% and the 10-year Treasury yield at approximately 4%, indicating a low equity risk premium of about 0.3% [4] Group 2: Quantitative Easing (QE) Mechanism - Dalio explains that all financial flows and market volatility are driven by relative attractiveness rather than absolute attractiveness, with investors choosing assets based on expected total returns [2] - The implementation of QE typically creates liquidity and lowers real interest rates, which can inflate asset prices and widen the wealth gap between asset holders and non-holders [2] Group 3: Historical Context of QE - Historically, QE has been deployed during economic downturns, characterized by falling asset valuations, economic contraction, and low inflation, contrasting sharply with the current high asset valuations and strong economic growth [4][5] - Current inflation is slightly above target at around 3%, with credit and liquidity conditions being robust, leading to a low credit spread [5] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Dalio warns that the current policy environment appears more dangerous and inflationary, with potential for a "liquidity melt-up" similar to the pre-burst of the 1999 internet bubble [7] - The combination of fiscal deficit expansion, renewed monetary easing, and regulatory relaxation is creating a "super-easy" environment that may lead to faster bubble inflation and deeper risk accumulation [7] - Long-duration assets, particularly in technology and AI, along with inflation-hedging assets like gold, are expected to benefit from the current liquidity environment, but risks may escalate if inflation concerns resurface [7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, leading to a slight increase in spot gold prices followed by a retreat, indicating minimal volatility in the market [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by over 4 basis points during the day, with short-term fluctuations around 2 basis points [1] - The S&P 500 index saw its gains slightly expand to over 0.2%, but later the increase narrowed [1] - Bitcoin experienced a minor increase before its daily decline slightly widened [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategies and considerations for an individual looking to retire with 12 million and a house after 20 years of work, emphasizing the importance of investment as a central life skill and the need for a diversified asset allocation strategy [1][4][10]. Investment Strategy - Defensive Layer: 40% allocation suggested, including 6% in money market funds, 20% in large time deposits, and 14% in bond funds [1]. - Core Layer: 35% allocation recommended, comprising 13% in CSI 300, 10% in dividend stocks, and 12% in S&P 500 [4]. - Satellite Layer: 25% allocation proposed, with 8% in CSI 500, 9% in NASDAQ 100, and 8% in gold [4]. Financial Considerations - The annual family expenditure is estimated at 250,000 to 300,000, which translates to a required return of approximately 2.5% on the 12 million to sustain retirement [11]. - Concerns are raised about the ability of children to secure high-income jobs in the future, suggesting a need for additional financial preparation [8]. Investment Mindset - The article emphasizes that investment should be a central focus in life, with the notion that all activities should revolve around the goal of making money through investments [4][5]. - It is suggested that individuals should maintain a stable mindset and adapt their investment strategies according to market changes [8]. Risk Management - The importance of avoiding investment scams and focusing on risk control is highlighted, with recommendations to invest in high-dividend stocks from monopolistic state-owned enterprises [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - Gold closed at 999.80 with a weekly increase of 10.90%, silver at 12249.00 with a 10.53% increase, and polycrystalline silicon at 52340.00 with a 6.89% increase. - Crude oil closed at 432.60 with a 6.34% decrease, glass at 1095.00 with a 9.28% decrease, and PTA at 4402.00 with a 2.91% decrease [2]. 2.2 A - shares - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4514.23 with a 2.22% decrease, the CSI 500 Index at 7016.07 with a 5.17% decrease, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index at 2967.77 with a 0.24% decrease [2]. 2.3 Overseas Stocks - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22679.97 with a 3.24% increase, the S&P 500 Index at 6664.01 with a 1.70% increase, and the Hang Seng Index at 25247.10 with a 3.97% decrease [2]. 2.4 Bonds - The yield of the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond was 1.50 with an increase of 1.25 bp, the 10 - year was 1.84 with a 0.5 bp decrease, and the 5 - year was 1.60 with a 0.13 bp increase [2]. 2.5 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index closed at 98.56 with a 0.27% decrease, the US dollar central parity rate at 7.09 with a 0.14% decrease, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate at 1.17 with a 0.24% increase [2]. 3. Commodity Views 3.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Sino - US trade talks, Fed rate - cut expectations, potential RMB appreciation, stable market expectations, and improved domestic M1 growth [4]. - Bearish logic: Profit - taking in the technology sector, low risk appetite before Sino - US trade resolution, limited policy stimulus, and reduced A - share trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Weak economic data, loose liquidity, and market risk aversion [4]. - Bearish logic: Potential incremental policies, unimplemented domestic rate cuts, and possible recovery of risk assets [4]. 3.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Sino - US trade talks, approaching break - even price, undervalued fundamentals, and US strategic oil purchase [5]. - Bearish logic: Saudi production increase, EU's call for end of war, rising Russian exports, high US inventory, and expected supply surplus [5]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Limited production potential, policy plans, low import data, and stable spot prices [5]. - Bearish logic: Increased Malaysian production, falling oil prices, low cost - effectiveness, and weak market sentiment [5]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Fed rate - cut expectations, low supply, seasonal demand, long - term demand growth, and policy support [6]. - Bearish logic: Trade friction risks, hedging pressure, low market attention, and weak spot trading [6]. 3.5 Chemical Sector - **Glass** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Positive sentiment during meetings, cost support, reduced inventory, and policy expectations [6]. - Bearish logic: High intermediate inventory, unclear production - cut policies, low orders, and weak real - estate data [6]. 3.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Geopolitical tensions, Fed rate - cut expectations, repeated conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [7]. - Bearish logic: Reduced US banking concerns, short - term profit - taking, and a stronger US dollar [7]. 3.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Safety inspections, supply disruptions, high iron - water production, and positive market sentiment [7]. - Bearish logic: Reduced steel - mill profits, stable supply, weak demand, and unclear trade friction [7].