关注集思录微信 特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议，仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损，本公众 号及作者概不承担任何责任。 去年年底我想 25年这一年涨了不少， 还依稀记得24年惨淡的行情， 我要保守， 26年能挣 5%我就满足了。 这开年第一周，科创板指数都已经涨了10% 连转债等权指数都涨了5.44% 去年年底我想 25年这一年涨了不少 还依稀记得24年惨淡的行情 我要保守 26年能挣5%我就 满足了 这开年第一周，科创板指数都已经涨了10% 连转债等权指数都涨了5.44% | | 指数涨幅统计(刷新) 历史数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | | | 本日涨幅 本周涨幅 本月涨幅 本季涨幅 本年涨幅 | | | | 000680 | 科创综指 | 1803.40 | 2.09% | 10.19% | 10.19% | 10.19% | 10.19% | | 000688 | 科创50 | 1475.97 | 1.43% | 9.80% | 9.80% | 9.80 ...

随着全球市场的不确定性增加，投资者已不再适用单一市场的投资逻辑。Bitget TradFi 提供的跨市场、 跨资产统一账户体验，让全球资产配置变得更加灵活、便捷。 回望 2025 年的加密行业，发生了太多难以预料的变化。加密行业整个上半年都被特朗普牵引，监管落 地，政策友好，BTC 突破新高，圈内一片欢声笑语，一切都逆周期向上狂奔。但在 10 月 11 日币圈史 上最大规模爆仓之后，无数人没能躲过「斩杀」，加密市场转熊，一切又回落到了年初的起点。 过去一年，比特币价格下跌 7%，以太坊价格下跌 10%，当下的情绪指数为「恐慌」。全球经济的不确 定性，以及加密市场流动性骤降，多个机构清盘和监管压力的加剧，导致加密市场资金外流、交易量减 少。加密货币市场的波动性处于历史高位，投资者的风险承受能力面临严峻考验。 与加密行情形成鲜明对比的是，作为传统金融市场（TradFi）的代表性资产如黄金等贵金属在过去一年 中展现了极强的韧性和增值。黄金价格突破历史新高一度来到 4500 美元上方、全年涨幅约 65%。原本 被视作「传统老气」和「避险资产」的黄金，忽然变得「眉清目秀」，表现远好过「数字黄金」比特 币。 与此同时，随 ...

Commodity Prices - Aluminum futures increased from 1969.5 to 2161.8, a rise of 9.76% [3] - Lithium futures rose from 1584 to 1695.5, marking a 7.04% increase [3] - Brent crude oil decreased from 61.22 to 60.8, a decline of 0.69% [3] - Natural gas prices fell from 3.852 to 3.641, a drop of 5.48% [3] Stock Market Indices - The Hang Seng Index increased from 25630.54 to 26338.47, reflecting a growth of 2.76% [3] - The S&P 500 index decreased from 6896.24 to 6858.47, a decline of 0.55% [3] - The Nasdaq index fell from 23419.08 to 23235.629, a decrease of 0.78% [3] Foreign Exchange Rates - The US Dollar Index rose from 98.3 to 98.49, an increase of 0.19% [3] - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate decreased from 1.1737 to 1.1716, a decline of 0.18% [3] - The CNH to US Dollar rate fell from 6.9843 to 6.9704, a decrease of 0.20% [3] Bond Yields - The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds decreased from 104.4296 to 104.3711, a drop of 0.06% [3] - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 112.6093 to 112.1875, a decline of 0.37% [3]

| 18 11 | 4836/.06 | 48582.59 | U.U5% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 离岸人民币 | 6.9843 | 6.9704 | -0.20% | | COMEX铜 | 5.7105 | 5.6980 | 0.22% | | SGX铁矿 | 105.45 | 105.20 | -0.24% | | LmeS铜 | 12499.0 | 12460.5 | 0.31% | | 美债10Y | 112.61 | 112.19 | 0.37% | | CBOT美麦 | 509.00 | 506.50 | 0.49% | | ICE棉花 | 64.34 | 64.01 | -0.51% | | 标普 500 | 6896.24 | 6858.47 | 0.55% | | CBOT玉米 | 440.00 | 437.00 | 0.68% | | 布伦特原油 | 61.22 | 60.80 | 0.69% | | 纳斯达克 | 23419.08 | 23235.63 | 0.78% | | 美原油 | 57.85 | 57.33 | 0.90% | | LmeS铝 ...

以下文章来源于人神共奋 ，作者思想钢印 人神共奋 . 财经专栏作家，虎嗅&雪球2020年度十佳作者 本文来自微信公众号： 人神共奋 ，作者：思想钢印，题图来自：AI生成 一、人们其实只想要一句"没事" 有一句医生自我剖析的话——"偶尔治愈，常常帮助，总是安慰"，其实更适合用于投资类自媒体。 每一次遇到大跌，大部分投资类自媒体的留言都会大量出现"大盘为什么跌""大盘还有救吗""要不要 先卖"？ 根据我的经验，表面上是疑问句，提问者实际想说的是——告诉我大盘没事，告诉我一切都是暂时 的，告诉我接下去就会涨回来。 所以直接一点的留言就是"严重受伤，求按摩"，他们已经默认，心理按摩也是投资博主的重要功能， 就好像"XX号技师"一样，知道你解决不了问题，但求一个眼前的舒服。 所以我觉得，当医学发达到大部分病都能治的今天，"偶尔治愈，常常帮助，总是安慰"这句话应该转 让给投资类博主才对。 不过，这个"心理按摩"真的纯粹是心理作用，没有什么实际用处吗？本文就来聊一聊这个话题。 原版的话既然是医生说的，就不能不提到医学上的"安慰剂效应"——还有一个"反安慰剂效应"，后者 直指大部分投资者的"心理雷区"。 二、安慰剂的作用真实 ...

市场主流观点汇总 2025/12/23 报告说明 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/12/19 | | 2025/12/15 | 至 | 2025/12/19 | | | 焦煤 | 1108.00 | 焦煤 | | | 9.00% | | | PTA | 4882.00 | PTA | | 5.81% | | | | 多晶硅 | 60245.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Li Qiang chaired a meeting of the leading group for the compilation of the Outline Draft of the 15th Five - Year Plan, emphasizing the planning of major projects to boost future development and current economic stability [2] - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively for seven consecutive months [2] - Four futures exchanges will temporarily exempt certain handling fees for most futures varieties from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, and the China Financial Futures Exchange will halve some handling fees [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan said the need for a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut has weakened [2] - US President Trump will meet with senior national security officials, and Russia's Foreign Ministry is evacuating the families of diplomats in Venezuela [2] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: silver, rapeseed oil, ethylene glycol, Shanghai nickel, and PVC [3] - Night trading performance: different commodity futures sectors showed varying degrees of increase, with the precious metals sector leading at 33.87%, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector at 24.53%, and the coal, coke, steel, and ore sector at 10.46% [3] 3. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, but specific data is not described in text [4] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Annual Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.69 | 0.74 | 16.87 | | | SSE 50 | 0.53 | 1.70 | 12.49 | | | CSI 300 | 0.95 | 1.88 | 17.20 | | | CSI 500 | 1.20 | 3.19 | 26.72 | | | S&P 500 | 0.64 | 0.43 | 16.95 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.43 | - 0.22 | 28.62 | | | German DAX | - 0.05 | 1.85 | 21.94 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.81 | 0.30 | 26.34 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.32 | 1.50 | 20.71 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.09 | 0.04 | - 0.87 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.06 | 0.11 | - 0.64 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.02 | 0.08 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | WTI Crude Oil | 2.49 | - 0.80 | - 19.45 | | | London Spot Gold | 2.37 | 5.34 | 69.35 | | | LME Copper | 0.25 | 6.58 | 35.64 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 4.40 | 12.78 | 50.89 | | Other | US Dollar Index | - 0.46 | - 1.19 | - 9.42 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 8.81 | - 14.06 | [5] 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Commodity Trends - The report presents charts of stock market risk preference and major commodity trends, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, and agricultural futures, but specific data is not described in text [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the performance comparison between A-shares and U.S. stocks, indicating that A-shares may not underperform U.S. stocks as commonly perceived [4][6]. - From 2005 to December 5, 2025, the S&P 500 and CSI 300 indices increased by 748.25% and 574.74% respectively, translating to annualized returns of 10.72% and 9.52%, showing that the performance gap is not as significant as believed [7][9]. - The overall growth rate of A-share listed companies from 2005 to present is higher than that of U.S. stocks when excluding valuation changes [11]. Group 2 - The industry distribution of listed companies in both markets is gradually converging, with A-shares showing increasing exposure to technology sectors [12][18]. - The combined weight of Information Technology and Communication Services in the CSI 300 is 22%, while in the broader Chinese equity market, it reaches 30.2%, indicating a shift towards technology [16][18]. - The industry distribution in the Chinese market has evolved significantly since 2011, reflecting the rapid transformation of the Chinese economy [18]. Group 3 - The volatility of A-shares is notably higher than that of U.S. stocks, which affects investor behavior and overall investment experience [21][22]. - To improve the investment experience in A-shares, reducing market volatility is deemed essential, rather than solely focusing on enhancing the fundamentals of listed companies [23][24]. - Recent regulatory measures aim to lower the volatility of A-shares, indicating a potential for improved investor experience in the future [25]. Group 4 - Overall, the long-term performance of A-shares is not significantly inferior to that of U.S. stocks, but the volatility in A-shares has historically led to varied investor experiences [27]. - The trend towards decreasing volatility in A-shares is expected to continue, potentially leading to better investment outcomes for broad market indices [27].

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - Recent global copper prices have reached historic highs, with SHFE copper closing at 94,020 CNY/ton and LME copper at 11,952 USD/ton[1] - Structural supply shortages in global copper mining are the core reason for price increases, with production accidents in Chile and Indonesia causing a 6.5% year-on-year decline in output from the top 20 copper mines in Q3[1] - Self-imposed production cuts in smelting further exacerbate supply tightness, with China's CSPT announcing a reduction of over 10% in copper production capacity for 2026[1] Group 2: Demand and Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment is supportive, with increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, enhancing the investment appeal of commodities[1] - Long-term copper price increases are driven by structural changes and rigid growth in demand, particularly in the renewable energy sector, where copper usage in electric vehicles is 2-3 times that of traditional vehicles[1] - The International Copper Study Group predicts that annual demand in the renewable sector will exceed 10 million tons by 2030[1] Group 3: Market Overview - From December 6 to December 13, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.08%, the Hang Seng index by 0.42%, and the S&P 500 by 0.63%[2] - In commodities, SHFE rebar fell by 2.65%, while LME copper rose by 1.47%[2] - The gold-silver ratio decreased to 67.39, while the copper-oil ratio increased to 205.72, reflecting changing asset valuations[2]

关注点一：12月声明强调失业率上升。经济与通胀的整体判断未发生变化，仍指出经济活动以温和速度 扩张，通胀较年初有所回升并保持在相对高位。就业部分的措辞有所调整，删除了此前"仍处于低 位"(remained low)的描述，改为"就业增长放缓，失业率小幅上升"(has edged up)，弱化的劳动力市场韧 性为本次降息提供直接的理由。此外，在讨论后续联邦基金利率目标区间的调整时，新增了"调整程度 和时机"的表述。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布12月FOMC会议点评，12月11日，美联储将基准利率下调25个基 点至3.50%-3.75%，符合市场预期，年内已累计降息75个基点。由于本次降息已基本被定价，市场关注 的核心不在利率本身，而在鲍威尔的措辞偏向、点阵图反映的政策路径、经济预测的调整幅度，以及是 否会启动类似QE的资产购买安排。鲍威尔在新闻发布会中的表态整体温和偏鸽。银河证券提到，美联 储内部分歧有所扩大。分歧在决议投票和点阵图中均有所体现。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 降息行为被提前定价，市场更关注增量信息：12月11日，美联储将基准利率下调25个基点至 3.50%-3.75%，符合市场预期，年 ...