Core Viewpoint - The Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator has dropped from 8.4 to 7.4, signaling the end of a sell signal that has persisted for over three months, but Michael Hartnett cautions that it is still too early to consider bottom-fishing [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Signals - The Bull & Bear Indicator's decline to 7.4 marks the lowest level since July 2025, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment [4][6]. - The sell signal that began on December 17 of the previous year has officially ended, influenced by deteriorating global stock index breadth and outflows from high-yield bonds and emerging market debt [6][8]. - Historical data shows that after such sell signals, the average return for the S&P 500 and MSCI Global Stock Index over the following three months is only 1%, suggesting that the end of the sell signal does not strongly indicate a buying opportunity [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Hartnett emphasizes that true buying opportunities will only arise with clear signs of "bull capitulation" or significant downward revisions in macroeconomic data, which have not yet occurred [5][11]. - The current market environment is characterized by a "painful trade" where short-term bonds outperform AI-related bonds, and energy stocks outperform technology stocks [8]. - The S&P 500 has seen 67% of its components drop over 10% from their peaks, with 28% down over 20%, indicating substantial structural damage beneath the index [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Hartnett outlines that a return of the dollar bear market could benefit gold and international equities, particularly if Trump's credibility is damaged due to geopolitical tensions [12][17]. - The potential for a policy shift towards "AI = universal basic income = yield curve control" could also benefit gold and Bitcoin in the long term [13]. - In a bearish scenario, credit spreads may continue to widen, and the market could shift from a prosperous trading environment to a stagflationary one, leading to a focus on long positions in U.S. Treasuries and short positions in cyclical stocks [14][17]. Group 4: Technical Indicators - The transition from a sell signal to a buy signal may first be indicated by the Bank of America Global Breadth Rule, which requires 88% of global stock indices to fall below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages [9][11]. - Currently, the indicator reading is at -39%, and further declines are expected in various markets before a buy signal can be triggered [11]. - The S&P 500 is not yet in an "adjustment zone," which is defined as a 10% to 20% drop from its peak, indicating that the market is still some distance from a technical bottom [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the comparison between the Permanent Portfolio and the All Weather Portfolio, highlighting their design philosophies and asset allocation structures [3][4]. - The Permanent Portfolio, created by Harry Browne in 1987, consists of 25% stocks, 25% long-term government bonds, 25% gold, and 25% cash, aiming for stability across different economic environments [5][6][8]. - The All Weather Portfolio, introduced by Ray Dalio in 1996, is based on risk parity and includes a higher allocation of bonds (55%) to mitigate stock volatility, along with commodities and gold for inflation protection [11][12][13]. Group 2 - Over the past year and a half, the Permanent Portfolio achieved a return of 31.12%, significantly benefiting from its 25% gold allocation, while the All Weather Portfolio returned 15.41%, underperforming the S&P 500 [19][21]. - The article provides guidance on which portfolio may suit different types of investors: the Permanent Portfolio is recommended for those seeking simplicity and low volatility, while the All Weather Portfolio is better for those with a deeper understanding of asset allocation and who can manage higher bond exposure [24]. Group 3 - A suggested hybrid portfolio is proposed, consisting of 40% stocks, 40% bonds (both short and long-term), 10% gold, and 10% commodities, combining elements from both the Permanent and All Weather strategies [26]. - The performance metrics of the proposed hybrid portfolio show a total return of 112.38% since 2018, with an annualized return of 10.51% and a maximum drawdown of 12.31% [29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives specific trading suggestions for various futures products, including long - term bullish, short - term trading, range trading, and short - selling opportunities [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple futures sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and cost changes [1] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, recommend buying on dips. US inflation cools, Fed rate - cut expectations decline, and geopolitical factors may put pressure on the stock index [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term RRR cuts or rate cuts is over, and the market will focus on quarter - end institutional behavior and overseas situations. China's inflation data may influence the market [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery and low trading volume [9] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The rebar futures price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with low static valuation and ongoing inventory accumulation [10] - **Glass**: Short - selling on rallies. Supply increases, inventory rises, demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor, limiting the upside potential [11][12] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term range trading or wait - and - see, with an operating range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, economic recession expectations, and inventory changes need to be closely monitored [14][15] - **Aluminum**: Suggest strengthening observation. The price is affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand changes, and inventory levels. It is recommended to allocate more while controlling positions [17] - **Nickel**: Suggest holding moderately on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but demand is weak in some sectors [18][19] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is stable. The price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [20] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to trade in a range. Geopolitical situations and inflation expectations affect the prices, and it is recommended to wait and trade cautiously [22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [24][25] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish and volatile. The cost is low, supply is high, domestic demand is weak, and exports are expected to support the price in the short term [26] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish and volatile. Demand from alumina production provides support, and exports may increase due to geopolitical factors. Spring maintenance and downstream restocking support the price [29] - **Styrene**: Bullish and volatile. Geopolitical factors drive up the oil price, providing cost support. Low inventory and export support the price [30] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish and volatile. Geopolitical conflicts support the cost, and supply - demand conditions improve marginally [31] - **Rubber**: Bullish and volatile. Cost support is strong, but inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to buy on dips and not chase the high [32] - **Urea**: Bullish and range - trading. Supply increases, demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers supports the price, and inventory levels are relatively low [34] - **Methanol**: Bullish and range - trading. The conflict in Iran may cause supply shortages, and domestic supply and demand are in a complex situation [35] - **Soda Ash**: Short - selling on rallies. Supply is high, inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to remain under pressure [37] Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish and volatile. Global cotton supply and demand change, and the price is expected to be bullish after the festival [38] - **Apples**: Bullish and volatile. The trading is stable, with some regional differences in price and demand [40] - **Red Dates**: Expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the Xinjiang region is based on quality [41] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a short - selling on rallies strategy; for contract 09, treat it as a range - bound market. The short - term price is under pressure due to oversupply, and the long - term price depends on capacity reduction [42][43] - **Eggs**: Range - bound. Supply is sufficient, demand is in a transition stage, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [44] - **Corn**: Bullish and volatile. Be cautious when chasing high prices. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply is expected to be relatively loose [45] - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish and volatile. Be cautious when chasing long positions in the 05 contract. The price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports, Brazilian harvest, and domestic supply [46] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish and volatile. Follow the international crude oil price. It is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils. Different oils have different supply - demand situations [47][48][49]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the impact of geopolitical conflicts on major asset classes, particularly during the initial phase of such events, highlighting that equity assets tend to be negatively affected while the US dollar and commodities perform better [3][4]. Summary by Sections Recent Events - On February 28, 2026, Israel announced an attack on Iran, followed by military actions from the US against Iran, marking a significant escalation in geopolitical tensions [2]. Short-term Asset Performance - In the initial week following geopolitical conflicts, global equity assets generally decline, with the S&P 500 showing a median change of -0.2% and a 42% probability of increase, while the CSI 300 index shows a median change of -1.2% with a 27% probability of increase. Conversely, the US dollar index has a 67% probability of rising, and WTI crude oil shows a median increase of 3.2% with a 67% probability of increase [3][5]. Long-term Asset Performance - Over a longer timeframe (one week to one month post-conflict), the negative impact on equity assets tends to reverse, with the S&P 500 showing a median increase of 1.4% and an 83% probability of increase. In contrast, the previously strong-performing US dollar and commodities begin to weaken, with the dollar and crude oil showing only a 33% and 42% probability of increase, respectively [4][8]. Historical Data on Conflicts - The report includes a table summarizing the performance of various asset classes during specific conflicts since 2000, indicating that while equities often suffer initially, they tend to recover over time, whereas commodities and currencies may not maintain their initial strength [5][8].

Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB exchange rate strengthened significantly post-Spring Festival, with an average daily increase reaching 239 basis points, breaking key psychological levels of 6.85 and 6.80[1] - The surge in demand for currency settlement due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival led to a concentrated demand explosion in late February[1] - Approximately $1 trillion of export earnings have been held in overseas accounts over the past 2-3 years, triggering a "herd effect" in currency settlement as the RMB appreciated rapidly[1] Market Trends - From February 21 to February 28, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.08%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.83%, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.45%[2] - The offshore RMB appreciated by 0.53%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.11% during the same period[2] - Major commodities saw price increases, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.82%, LME copper up by 5.41%, and London silver increasing by 11.77%[2] Inventory and Fund Behavior - Recent oil inventory levels reached 44,684 million tons, up by 46,224 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest week saw a decrease in long positions for the US dollar by 2,121 contracts, totaling 13,295 contracts, while short positions slightly decreased by 4 contracts[3] - The scale of gold ETFs increased to 3,540 million ounces, up by 720,000 ounces from the previous week[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include volatility in overseas markets and uncertainties in domestic policy execution[4]

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently surpassed the $5000 per ounce mark due to geopolitical uncertainties, with increased buying activity at the start of the trading week [1] - A market strategist warns that high volatility in gold prices may not bode well for further increases in 2026, as sharp fluctuations often lead to rapid capital inflows and outflows, hindering the formation of a stable upward trend [1] - The strategist advises investors to be cautious of short-term price movements driven by emotions and to assess the macroeconomic environment and supply-demand dynamics for long-term trends [1] Group 2 - Bloomberg's senior strategist Mike McGlone notes that gold has significantly outperformed U.S. Treasuries and other commodities in recent years, but may be nearing a "finality" as markets normalize [2] - McGlone highlights that the recent rise in gold prices has been accompanied by increased volatility, making it resemble a risk asset rather than a safe haven [2] - The TLT/GLD ratio has dropped to a historical low, while the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries has returned to 5%, indicating a potential mean reversion that could favor bonds over gold [2] Group 3 - The overall upward trend in gold remains intact, with a recent high of $5240 followed by a quick pullback due to profit-taking, which is seen as a short-term technical correction rather than a trend reversal [3] - A bottom structure indicates potential targets of $5300-$5400, with the need to monitor the one-hour top structure for short-term movements [3] - An increase of 7.72 tons in ETF holdings suggests institutional support, reducing the likelihood of significant declines, and the key level to watch is $5100 for the four-hour timeframe [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global markets during the Spring Festival holiday, highlighting the increases in Hong Kong and U.S. stock indices, and the implications for A-shares upon reopening [6][12][22]. Group 1: Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.94% during the holiday, while the H-share index increased by 1.82% [7]. - Despite a slight decline in the previous week, the Hong Kong market saw a significant rise on the first trading day after the holiday [8]. - The gains during the holiday will be reflected in the net asset values of funds when the market reopens [9][10]. Group 2: U.S. Market - U.S. and European markets also experienced overall increases during the holiday, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.07% and the Nasdaq 100 by 1.13% [13]. - Global stock index funds saw an average increase of 1.1% [14]. Group 3: A-share Market - A-shares did not trade during the holiday, but overseas markets tracking A-shares indicated a potential increase, with the FTSE A50 index futures rising by 1.50% [17]. - An ETF tracking the CSI 300 in the U.S. rose by 1.25% during the holiday, suggesting overseas investors' positive sentiment towards A-shares [19]. - The actual performance of A-shares will depend on the market's opening on the first trading day after the holiday [21]. Group 4: Global Market Trends - Besides equities, global bond and commodity assets also saw overall increases during the holiday, with oil prices rising over 5% [23]. - The rise in various asset classes is attributed to favorable news, including a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that may lower tariffs, which is expected to reduce inflation and support further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [25][26]. Group 5: Investment Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining good investment practices and the potential for ordinary investors to achieve positive investment experiences through consistent efforts [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price and cumulative percentage change of various commodities, stock market indices, and other important indicators during the Spring Festival holiday in the overseas market [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Commodities - NYMEX crude oil closed at $66.31 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.57% during the holiday [2] - NYMEX natural gas closed at $2.99 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 6.41% during the holiday [2] - COMEX gold closed at $5130.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.31% during the holiday [2] - COMEX silver closed at $84.57 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 9.45% during the holiday [2] - LME copper closed at $12964.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.25% during the holiday [2] - LME zinc closed at $3382.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.20% during the holiday [2] - LME nickel closed at $17435.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.59% during the holiday [2] - LME aluminum closed at $3102.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.39% during the holiday [2] - LME tin closed at $46559.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.62% during the holiday [2] - LME lead closed at $1965.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.35% during the holiday [2] - TSI iron ore CFR China (62% iron powder) closed at $95.30 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 1.60% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybeans closed at $1153.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.67% during the holiday [2] - CBOT corn closed at $428.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.87% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean oil closed at $59.34 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 3.80% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean meal closed at $314.20 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.58% during the holiday [2] - CBOT wheat closed at $581.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.97% during the holiday [2] - CBOT rice closed at $10.52 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 4.54% during the holiday [2] - ICE 11 - sugar closed at $13.86 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.29% during the holiday [2] - ICE 2 - cotton closed at $65.55 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.13% during the holiday [2] Stock Market - The S&P 500 closed at 6909.51 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.07% during the holiday [2] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22886.07 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.51% during the holiday [2] - The UK FTSE 100 closed at 10686.89 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.30% during the holiday [2] - The French CAC40 closed at 8515.49 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.45% during the holiday [2] - The German DAX closed at 25260.69 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.39% during the holiday [2] - The Nikkei 225 closed at 56825.70 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.20% during the holiday [2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26413.35 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.58% during the holiday [2] Other Important Indicators - The US dollar index closed at 97.74 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.91% during the holiday [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses various financial tools and resources that individuals can use to manage their finances and investments effectively [1][2] - It emphasizes the importance of creating personal financial statements, such as balance sheets and cash flow statements, to track financial health [1] - The article highlights the significance of using apps like Alipay and WeChat for budgeting and expense tracking, suggesting that using a single app for payments can simplify financial management [1] Group 2 - It mentions investment platforms and tools like Jisilu for low-risk investment opportunities, including convertible bonds and closed-end funds [1] - The article provides resources for calculating mortgage-related cash flows and understanding housing affordability through a mortgage calculator [1] - It discusses the importance of credit score checks and how they are essential for major purchases like homes and loans [1] Group 3 - The article lists various stock market resources, including official websites like the CSRC and stock exchanges for reliable data [2] - It introduces investment tools like Cheese Stock for stock research and screening, emphasizing the need for thorough analysis before investing [2] - The article mentions the significance of long-term investment strategies, such as holding low-cost index funds, which can outperform most fund managers over time [2]

Group 1: Core Data 1. Average price change in the last five years - NYMEX crude oil: 2.01% [2] - NYMEX natural gas: -3.73% [2] - COMEX gold: 0.15% [2] - COMEX silver: 2.23% [2] - LME copper: 1.77% [2] - LME zinc: 1.05% [2] - LME nickel: 1.02% [2] - LME aluminum: 0.99% [2] - LME tin: 3.65% [2] - LME lead: 1.13% [2] - CBOT soybeans: 1.83% [2] - CBOT corn: 0.20% [2] - CBOT soybean oil: -0.59% [2] - CBOT soybean meal: 2.78% [2] - CBOT wheat: 0.60% [2] - CBOT rice: -1.32% [2] - ICE No. 11 sugar: -0.04% [2] - ICE No. 2 cotton: 2.45% [2] - S&P 500: 1.03% [2] - US dollar index: -0.12% [2] - CRB commodity index: 1.30% [2] - BDI: 6.93% [2] 2. Average price change in the last ten years - NYMEX crude oil: 0.01% [2] - NYMEX natural gas: -3.23% [2] - COMEX gold: 0.82% [2] - COMEX silver: 1.95% [2] - LME copper: 0.00% [2] - LME zinc: 0.11% [2] - LME nickel: 0.44% [2] - LME aluminum: 0.27% [2] - LME tin: 1.70% [2] - LME lead: 0.53% [2] - CBOT soybeans: 0.61% [2] - CBOT corn: -0.19% [2] - CBOT soybean oil: -0.43% [2] - CBOT soybean meal: 0.81% [2] - CBOT wheat: -0.53% [2] - CBOT rice: -1.71% [2] - ICE No. 11 sugar: -0.07% [2] - ICE No. 2 cotton: 1.28% [2] - S&P 500: 0.08% [2] - US dollar index: -0.03% [2] - CRB commodity index: 0.01% [2] - BDI: 0.67% [2] 3. Annual price change from 2016 - 2025 - NYMEX crude oil: 1.16% (2016), -0.13% (2017), 1.19% (2018), -4.80% (2019), -7.31% (2020), 5.70% (2021), 5.30% (2022), -2.83% (2023), 2.33% (2024), -0.48% (2025) [2] - NYMEX natural gas: -1.50% (2016), -5.11% (2017), 0.87% (2018), -4.21% (2019), -3.71% (2020), 8.77% (2021), -2.88% (2022), -8.97% (2023), -15.01% (2024), -0.56% (2025) [2] - COMEX gold: 5.49% (2016), 2.24% (2017), -1.99% (2018), -0.29% (2019), 2.00% (2020), -3.75% (2021), 0.92% (2022), -0.01% (2023), -1.18% (2024), 4.78% (2025) [2] - COMEX silver: 5.06% (2016), 4.14% (2017), -1.72% (2018), -0.53% (2019), 1.35% (2020), 1.29% (2021), 0.13% (2022), -1.39% (2023), 3.60% (2024), 7.54% (2025) [2] - LME copper: -2.71% (2016), 0.97% (2017), -0.38% (2018), 0.98% (2019), -7.72% (2020), 1.66% (2021), 3.99% (2022), -0.77% (2023), 2.99% (2024), 0.96% (2025) [2] - LME zinc: 1.83% (2016), 3.29% (2017), -0.91% (2018), -2.14% (2019), -6.24% (2020), 2.97% (2021), -0.14% (2022), 0.75% (2023), 2.58% (2024), -0.88% (2025) [2] - LME nickel: -4.50% (2016), 10.59% (2017), -1.43% (2018), -0.75% (2019), -4.55% (2020), 0.32% (2021), 3.34% (2022), 1.26% (2023), 1.62% (2024), -1.45% (2025) [2] - LME aluminum: -0.13% (2016), 0.80% (2017), 0.91% (2018), 0.16% (2019), -3.93% (2020), 2.13% (2021), 0.88% (2022), 1.45% (2023), -0.31% (2024), 0.79% (2025) [2] - LME tin: 1.82% (2016), -0.55% (2017), 0.16% (2018), 0.89% (2019), -3.61% (2020), 5.25% (2021), 3.36% (2022), 3.52% (2023), 3.85% (2024), 2.28% (2025) [2] - LME lead: 4.76% (2016), 1.67% (2017), -0.81% (2018), -1.53% (2019), -4.45% (2020), 1.10% (2021), -1.76% (2022), 4.58% (2023), 0.85% (2024), 0.87% (2025) [2] - CBOT soybeans: 0.35% (2016), -0.93% (2017), 1.90% (2018), -0.22% (2019), -4.10% (2020), 2.16% (2021), 5.76% (2022), 0.22% (2023), -1.84% (2024), 2.85% (2025) [2] - CBOT corn: -1.85% (2016), 1.10% (2017), 1.84% (2018), -0.93% (2019), -3.11% (2020), 3.76% (2021), -2.28% (2022), 0.96% (2023), -3.87% (2024), 2.44% (2025) [2] - CBOT soybean oil: 2.72% (2016), 0.15% (2017), 0.63% (2018), 3.35% (2019), -8.26% (2020), 2.30% (2021), 0.25% (2022), -2.05% (2023), -5.07% (2024), 1.64% (2025) [2] - CBOT soybean meal: -1.50% (2016), -2.14% (2017), 2.69% (2018), -1.83% (2019), -2.98% (2020), 2.18% (2021), 7.82% (2022), 2.09% (2023), -2.42% (2024), 4.22% (2025) [2] - CBOT wheat: -1.87% (2016), 1.70% (2017), -1.87% (2018), -1.24% (2019), -5.07% (2020), 2.13% (2021), -2.79% (2022), 0.84% (2023), -4.99% (2024), 7.84% (2025) [2] - CBOT rice: -2.88% (2016), -2.31% (2017), -2.33% (2018), -2.81% (2019), -0.11% (2020), -1.82% (2021), 2.18% (2022), 0.94% (2023), -1.66% (2024), -6.26% (2025) [2] - ICE No. 11 sugar: -1.43% (2016), 0.59% (2017), -0.30% (2018), 0.71% (2019), -0.07% (2020), -3.76% (2021), -0.11% (2022), 6.75% (2023), -5.85% (2024), 2.77% (2025) [2] - ICE No. 2 cotton: -2.15% (2016), 3.52% (2017), 4.26% (2018), -1.52% (2019), -3.59% (2020), 4.39% (2021), 2.35% (2022), 0.25% (2023), 5.90% (2024), -0.64% (2025) [2] - S&P 500: -0.81% (2016), -0.69% (2017), 0.10% (2018), 0.05% (2019), -3.01% (2020), 0.55% (2021), 1.55% (2022), 2.47% (2023), 0.15% (2024), 0.43% (2025) [2] - US dollar index: -1.05% (2016), -0.66% (2017), 1.23% (2018), 1.08% (2019), -0.32% (2020), 0.54% (2021), -1.80% (2022), -0.07% (2023), 0.13% (2024), 0.62% (2025) [2] - CRB commodity index: -0.97% (2016), -0.38% (2017), 0.93% (2018), -1.39% (2019), -4.60% (2020), 2.50% (2021), 3.34% (2022), -0.29% (2023), -0.36% (2024), 1.30% (2025) [2] - BDI: -2.02% (2016), -8.33% (2017), 4.66% (2018), -6.82% (2019), -15.45% (2020), 34.77% (2021), 3.04% (2022), -11.40% (2023), 9.30% (2024), -1.05% (2025) [2]