Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are facing a short - term high - level correction due to the cooling of macro - sentiment. The upside space of copper prices is limited by the high - level dollar and escalating trade frictions, and further breakthroughs require macro - level support. The focus in the near term is on US inflation and employment data before the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the final interest - rate cut decision [1][6] - It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the future, with the range possibly around 78,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton [34] Group 3: Summary of Each Related Section 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Variation Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: SHFE copper prices slightly declined from 79,450 yuan/ton on August 21st to 79,330 yuan/ton on August 27th, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The premium structure of copper was differentiated, with the premium of high - grade copper rising from 165 yuan/ton on August 26th to 230 yuan/ton, indicating a tight supply of high - grade copper in the spot market. The premiums of flat - water copper and wet - process copper remained low, and the supply of ordinary copper was relatively stable. The LME copper (0 - 3) discount widened to - 84.82 dollars/ton, suggesting the existence of overseas hidden inventory pressure [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME copper inventories decreased for four consecutive weeks, dropping to 21,287 tons on August 27th, a 10.4% decrease from the previous week, with an accelerating de - stocking speed. SHFE inventories slightly increased by 1,100 tons to 156,100 tons, indicating limited inventory accumulation pressure in China. In terms of positions, the LME copper position increased to 268,800 lots, intensifying the long - short game, but the high - level oscillation of the dollar index suppressed short - term speculative sentiment [2] b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The expected adjustment of the recycled copper policy has led smelters to stockpile cold materials in advance, and the pressure on the rough copper processing fee indicates that the raw material supply in September may tighten. Aurubis signed a long - term contract for 75,000 tons/year of copper concentrate with Troilus Gold to hedge policy risks in the long - term raw material end. Currently, the supply of high - quality imported copper is still tight, and the circulation of wet - process copper is scarce, supporting the spot premium [3] - **Demand Side**: Downstream consumption shows structural differentiation. The demand for power/long - term order pick - up is stable, but the zero - order procurement is significantly suppressed by the high copper price. The procurement sentiment index in Shanghai monitored by SMM is only 3.16/5, and the high - price copper has a negative feedback on the demand in the construction/home appliance and other fields. The new US tax rule on small - parcel imports may further suppress the export orders of electronic consumer goods [4] - **Inventory Side**: LME inventories are accelerating de - stocking to a near - three - year low, and the domestic social inventory pressure is controllable. However, the limited replenishment of imported resources and the regional outflow of warehouse receipts strengthen the short - term spot tight pattern [5] c. Market Summary - The stockpiling of cold materials on the supply side exacerbates the spot tightness, and the continuous de - stocking of LME provides bottom support. However, the high - level dollar and escalating trade frictions suppress risk appetite, limiting the upside space of copper prices [6] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On August 27th, 2025, compared with August 21st, SMM:1 copper (premium copper) prices slightly decreased, with the premium significantly increasing; flat - water copper premiums slightly increased; wet - process copper premiums remained unchanged. LME copper prices and SHFE copper prices both had small fluctuations. LME inventories decreased, while SHFE and COMEX inventories increased [8] 3. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The change in the recycled copper policy may affect the cold - material supply of electrolytic copper smelters, leading to a decline in the processing fees of rough copper and anode plates. The outflow of SHFE warehouse receipts in Guangdong and Jiangsu regions and the stable inventory in Shanghai. The continuous decrease in LME copper inventories may reflect supply tightness. Macroscopically, the US tariff policy and Fed personnel changes have caused market concerns. The dollar index has declined but remains at a high level, which may put pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, the supply of high - quality copper has been slightly supplemented, but wet - process copper is scarce, and the spot supply is tight. On the consumption side, the high copper price has suppressed the procurement sentiment [33] - In the market data variation analysis, the SHFE price slightly decreased, and the premium of premium copper strengthened, indicating possible spot supply tightness. In terms of position and trading volume, the LME position increased, but the SHFE inventory increased, and trading volume may shrink due to price fluctuations. In the industrial chain supply - demand and inventory analysis, on the supply side, smelters stockpile due to policy changes, and the rough copper processing fee decreases, which may affect future supply. The agreement of Aurubis increases supply, but the specific volume depends on time. On the demand side, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs, and high copper prices suppress consumption, but there may still be demand in the power, construction and other fields. On the inventory side, LME inventories continue to decrease, showing de - stocking, while SHFE inventories slightly increase, possibly due to regional differences [34]