商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 04 日 铜：LME 库存减少，限制价格回落 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 87,300 | 0.33% | 86970 | -0.38% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,819 | -0.67% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 275,726 | -168,902 | 585,875 | -7,728 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 15,544 | -5,193 | 334,000 | -11,593 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 40,066 | 356 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 133,600 | -1,025 | 8.33% | ...

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices experienced narrow fluctuations, opening at $10,929.5 per ton and currently trading at $10,947.0 per ton, reflecting a 0.27% increase [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $10,970 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $10,927 per ton [1] Group 2 - On October 30, LME copper futures opened at $11,123.0, peaked at $11,125.5, and closed at $10,924.0, marking a decrease of 2.09% [2] - Indonesian copper miner AMMAN MINERAL reported a copper concentrate production of 310,143 tons and cathode copper production of 41,052 tons with sales of 39,805 tons for the first nine months [2] - As of October 30, the LME registered warehouse receipts totaled 120,725 tons, with canceled receipts at 14,225 tons, a reduction of 450 tons, and total copper inventory at 134,950 tons, down by 400 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [6][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The price of SHFE's main copper contract closed at 85,530 yuan/ton on October 20, showing an upward trend. The LME copper price dropped to $10,611/ton on October 17. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened from -$11.16/ton to -$16.83/ton, indicating increased overseas spot supply pressure [1] - From October 14 to 20, LME copper inventory decreased by 3,090 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 7.0%, with the overseas destocking speed accelerating. SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, remaining stable overall [2] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Overseas mine disruptions continued. MMG's Las Bambas mine in Peru lost about 90,000 tons of copper resources due to illegal mining. Zijin Mining's third - quarter mineral copper output decreased by 6% quarter - on - quarter, tightening short - term supply. Although the import of recycled copper raw materials continued to grow, the import of anode copper decreased by 32.84% year - on - year, and there were still structural contradictions in refined copper supply [3] - **Demand Side**: Domestic demand was differentiated. The import of copper foil in the power sector increased by 7.28% year - on - year, and the import of copper alloys increased by 12.37% month - on - month. However, the export of copper enameled wire to the US and Indonesia declined year - on - year, showing weak demand in some overseas markets. The spot market was suppressed by high copper prices, and the concentrated arrival of imported copper further restricted the premium space [4] - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventory continued the destocking trend. LME inventory dropped to 41,319 tons, a three - month low. Domestic SHFE inventory slightly decreased but remained at a high level of 137,000 tons. The increase in the arrival of imported copper may put pressure on subsequent inventory. The increase in the import of recycled copper raw materials may ease the supply gap of refined copper to some extent [5] 3.1.3 Market Summary - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain volatile at current high levels. The supply - side contraction in mineral copper output is offset by the increase in recycled copper. On the demand side, domestic infrastructure provides support while overseas demand is weak. The continuous destocking of LME at the macro level supports prices [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 20, the price of SMM's 1 copper was 85,990 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.24% compared to October 14. The price of SHFE was 85,530 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 1.05%. The LME price on October 17 was $10,611/ton [8] - The premium of premium copper remained stable at 95 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - water copper increased by 16.67% to 35 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - process copper increased by 12.50% to - 35 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) contango widened [8] - From October 14 to 20, LME inventory decreased by 1,530 tons to 41,319 tons, a decrease of 3.57%. SHFE inventory decreased by 50 tons to 137,175 tons, a decrease of 0.04%. COMEX inventory data on October 17 was 345,581 short tons [8] 3.3 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][11][14] 3.4 Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The SHFE main contract price increased slightly, while the LME price decreased slightly. The basis weakened, indicating increased spot pressure. LME inventory decreased, while SHFE inventory decreased slightly and COMEX inventory increased slightly [34][35] - On the supply side, the decrease in Zijin Mining's third - quarter output and the loss of copper in MMG's Peruvian mine may affect supply. Although anode copper imports decreased, recycled copper imports increased, showing diversified supply [35] - On the demand side, copper foil and copper alloy imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Copper enameled wire exports to the US and Indonesia were weak. The domestic spot market was suppressed by high prices [35] - Overall inventory pressure was not large, but attention should be paid to subsequent imports. Copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock range of 84,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [35][36]

每经AI快讯，10月13日，沪铜主力合约开盘小幅拉升，日内跌幅收窄至2.07%，现报85040.00元/吨。国 际铜主力合约日内跌幅收窄至2.00%，现报75600.00元/吨。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot premium of copper has rebounded, limiting the decline in copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,580, down 1.22% during the day and up 0.10% at night to 79660. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,946, down 0.28% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 89,310, an increase of 27,376 from the previous day, and the open interest was 172,604, a decrease of 6,478. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 14,733, a decrease of 12,807, and the open interest was 290,000, a decrease of 2,734 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 32,469, a decrease of 822, and the inventory of LME Copper was 148,875, a decrease of 900. The cancellation - warrant ratio of LME Copper was 9.03%, a decrease of 0.61% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper premium, bonded - area warehouse receipt premium, and other spreads showed different changes. For example, the spot - to - near - month futures spread increased by 10 to 70 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [1][3]. - **Industry News**: The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia owned by Freeport McMoRan remains shut down as it continues to rescue seven workers trapped underground. Panama plans to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the复产 of the Cobre Panamá copper mine, with negotiations expected to start at the end of this year or early next year. In July, the copper production of Codelco and BHP's Escondida mine increased year - on - year, with Codelco producing 118,500 tons (up 6.4%) and Escondida producing 114,800 tons (up 7.8%). Chinese copper production increased slightly in August but is expected to decline in September due to routine maintenance and a shortage of anode copper supply. Ivanhoe Mines will announce the copper production guidance for Kamoa - Kakula in 2026 and 2027 after greater progress in the second - stage water - pumping work [1][3]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Fed's September rate - cut expectation is rising, there's an expectation of a shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper shows an initial decline, which may lead to a relatively strong performance of Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors lightly go long on the main contract on dips, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. Summary by Relevant Data Shanghai Copper Futures Data (2025 - 08 - 28) - Closing price: 78,930, down 260 from the previous day [2] - Trading volume: 73,403 lots, an increase of 15,585 lots from the previous day [2] - Open interest: 168,997 lots, a decrease of 6,000 lots from the previous day [2] - Inventory: 21,232 tons, down 55 tons from the previous day [2] - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price: 79,616, down 355 from the previous day [2] - Shanghai copper basis: 260, down 95 from the previous day [2] Other Price and Spread Data - LME 3 - month copper futures closing price: 9,818, up 62.5 from the previous day [2] - Total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory: 0, a decrease of 157,950 from the previous day [2] - LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread: - 82.79, up 7.14 from the previous day [2] - LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread: - 167.53, up 2.04 from the previous day [2] - Shanghai - London copper price ratio: 8.0393, down 0.08 from the previous day [2] - COMEX 9 copper futures active contract closing price: 4.5445, down 0.0025 from the previous day [2] - Total inventory weight: 275,226 tons, an increase of 3,121 tons from the previous day [2] Industry News - Hudbay Minerals restarted the operation of its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba on August 22 [2] - European high - quality copper exports are restricted, and Sino - US tariff negotiation uncertainty affects scrap copper imports. Domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference is negative, and the scrap copper import window is closed. Some copper smelters are shut down or have production cuts, while some new projects are under construction or planned to be put into production [2] - The weekly processing fee of crude copper in northern (southern) China remains flat (decreases), and the operating rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plate capacity decreases compared with last week. Domestic smelters' crude copper maintenance capacity in August may decrease month - on - month, and the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August may increase [2] - Some domestic electrolytic copper production projects are planned to be put into production in the future, and some overseas copper smelters have maintenance or production - cut situations. African agricultural exports delay ship bookings, which may lead to a decrease in domestic electrolytic copper imports in August. The import window opening may increase imports, and the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper increases [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are facing a short - term high - level correction due to the cooling of macro - sentiment. The upside space of copper prices is limited by the high - level dollar and escalating trade frictions, and further breakthroughs require macro - level support. The focus in the near term is on US inflation and employment data before the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the final interest - rate cut decision [1][6] - It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the future, with the range possibly around 78,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton [34] Group 3: Summary of Each Related Section 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Variation Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: SHFE copper prices slightly declined from 79,450 yuan/ton on August 21st to 79,330 yuan/ton on August 27th, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The premium structure of copper was differentiated, with the premium of high - grade copper rising from 165 yuan/ton on August 26th to 230 yuan/ton, indicating a tight supply of high - grade copper in the spot market. The premiums of flat - water copper and wet - process copper remained low, and the supply of ordinary copper was relatively stable. The LME copper (0 - 3) discount widened to - 84.82 dollars/ton, suggesting the existence of overseas hidden inventory pressure [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME copper inventories decreased for four consecutive weeks, dropping to 21,287 tons on August 27th, a 10.4% decrease from the previous week, with an accelerating de - stocking speed. SHFE inventories slightly increased by 1,100 tons to 156,100 tons, indicating limited inventory accumulation pressure in China. In terms of positions, the LME copper position increased to 268,800 lots, intensifying the long - short game, but the high - level oscillation of the dollar index suppressed short - term speculative sentiment [2] b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The expected adjustment of the recycled copper policy has led smelters to stockpile cold materials in advance, and the pressure on the rough copper processing fee indicates that the raw material supply in September may tighten. Aurubis signed a long - term contract for 75,000 tons/year of copper concentrate with Troilus Gold to hedge policy risks in the long - term raw material end. Currently, the supply of high - quality imported copper is still tight, and the circulation of wet - process copper is scarce, supporting the spot premium [3] - **Demand Side**: Downstream consumption shows structural differentiation. The demand for power/long - term order pick - up is stable, but the zero - order procurement is significantly suppressed by the high copper price. The procurement sentiment index in Shanghai monitored by SMM is only 3.16/5, and the high - price copper has a negative feedback on the demand in the construction/home appliance and other fields. The new US tax rule on small - parcel imports may further suppress the export orders of electronic consumer goods [4] - **Inventory Side**: LME inventories are accelerating de - stocking to a near - three - year low, and the domestic social inventory pressure is controllable. However, the limited replenishment of imported resources and the regional outflow of warehouse receipts strengthen the short - term spot tight pattern [5] c. Market Summary - The stockpiling of cold materials on the supply side exacerbates the spot tightness, and the continuous de - stocking of LME provides bottom support. However, the high - level dollar and escalating trade frictions suppress risk appetite, limiting the upside space of copper prices [6] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On August 27th, 2025, compared with August 21st, SMM:1 copper (premium copper) prices slightly decreased, with the premium significantly increasing; flat - water copper premiums slightly increased; wet - process copper premiums remained unchanged. LME copper prices and SHFE copper prices both had small fluctuations. LME inventories decreased, while SHFE and COMEX inventories increased [8] 3. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The change in the recycled copper policy may affect the cold - material supply of electrolytic copper smelters, leading to a decline in the processing fees of rough copper and anode plates. The outflow of SHFE warehouse receipts in Guangdong and Jiangsu regions and the stable inventory in Shanghai. The continuous decrease in LME copper inventories may reflect supply tightness. Macroscopically, the US tariff policy and Fed personnel changes have caused market concerns. The dollar index has declined but remains at a high level, which may put pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, the supply of high - quality copper has been slightly supplemented, but wet - process copper is scarce, and the spot supply is tight. On the consumption side, the high copper price has suppressed the procurement sentiment [33] - In the market data variation analysis, the SHFE price slightly decreased, and the premium of premium copper strengthened, indicating possible spot supply tightness. In terms of position and trading volume, the LME position increased, but the SHFE inventory increased, and trading volume may shrink due to price fluctuations. In the industrial chain supply - demand and inventory analysis, on the supply side, smelters stockpile due to policy changes, and the rough copper processing fee decreases, which may affect future supply. The agreement of Aurubis increases supply, but the specific volume depends on time. On the demand side, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs, and high copper prices suppress consumption, but there may still be demand in the power, construction and other fields. On the inventory side, LME inventories continue to decrease, showing de - stocking, while SHFE inventories slightly increase, possibly due to regional differences [34]

Group 1 - The main copper futures contract opened lower, currently down 0.83%, reported at 78,710 yuan/ton [1] - The international copper main contract has fallen below 70,000 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.62% [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The copper market is currently in a transition period between the off - season and peak season. With the withdrawal of the waste copper investment promotion policy, the short - term output of recycled copper rods has decreased, leading to an increase in the substitution consumption of refined copper rods. It is expected that domestic inventories will decline in the future, and LME inventories will be transferred to China with the import window open. The low - inventory support logic will continue, and copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market oscillated and declined. The US dollar rose against major currencies, and the market digested Powell's speech. The upward trend of A - shares paused, and the market's bullish sentiment decreased. Nearly 4 billion yuan of funds flowed out of industrial products. Shanghai copper retraced throughout the day and closed lower at the end of the session. The near - month back spread widened to 40, the spot price increased by 190 to 79,585, the spot premium decreased by 10 to 130. The spot import profit was 150, the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 8.09, and the LME0 - 3 contango structure narrowed to 78. The market is optimistic about the September premium, and holders are firm on prices [10] 2. Industry News - First Quantum Minerals abandoned the plan to sell its stake in Zambian copper mines. On August 25, it announced that a $1 billion gold deal had alleviated its balance - sheet pressure, so it shelved the plan to sell its minority stake in two Zambian copper mines [11] - Ivanhoe Mines advanced the drainage plan for the Kamoa copper project. After the drainage of the eastern area of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine was completed, mining operations are expected to resume early next year. The company also plans to release new production forecasts in the coming weeks [11] - The US plans to include copper and potash in the list of critical minerals. The US government will add copper, potash, silicon, silver, lead, and rhenium to the draft list of critical minerals, while tellurium and arsenic will be removed [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, processing fees have rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change. Consumption is also hard to have a remarkable performance, but it won't collapse significantly due to relatively stable power grid orders. Macro factors are relatively favorable for copper prices. Operationally, it is still recommended to mainly buy on dips for hedging, with the operation range at 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton. However, attention should be paid to the later development of the Putin - Biden meeting. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put some pressure on LME copper prices [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 19, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,840 yuan/ton and closed at 78,890 yuan/ton, a -0.08% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,690 yuan/ton and closed at 78,550 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decline from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading was light. The SMM1 copper was quoted at 79,010 - 79,190 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 195 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decline from the previous day. The market supply and demand were both weak, and the spot premium is expected to continue to decline under pressure [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The White House is planning a possible meeting of the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest. Geopolitical risks are expected to cool significantly. Domestically, policies to promote consumption are expected to support demand [3] - **Mine End**: The ore body scale of Marimaka Copper's Pampa Medina mine in northern Chile has expanded, and the company's stock price has reached a new high in more than 13 years [3] - **Smelting and Import**: The LME's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated. China's refined copper production in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. In August, more smelters reduced production due to supply shortages [4] - **Consumption**: In July, China's copper industry monthly prosperity index was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 155,150 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,498 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on August 20 was 133,700 tons, a change of 8,100 tons from the previous week [5]