1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, processing fees have rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change. Consumption is also hard to have a remarkable performance, but it won't collapse significantly due to relatively stable power grid orders. Macro factors are relatively favorable for copper prices. Operationally, it is still recommended to mainly buy on dips for hedging, with the operation range at 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton. However, attention should be paid to the later development of the Putin - Biden meeting. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put some pressure on LME copper prices [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 19, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,840 yuan/ton and closed at 78,890 yuan/ton, a -0.08% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,690 yuan/ton and closed at 78,550 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decline from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading was light. The SMM1 copper was quoted at 79,010 - 79,190 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 195 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decline from the previous day. The market supply and demand were both weak, and the spot premium is expected to continue to decline under pressure [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The White House is planning a possible meeting of the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest. Geopolitical risks are expected to cool significantly. Domestically, policies to promote consumption are expected to support demand [3] - **Mine End**: The ore body scale of Marimaka Copper's Pampa Medina mine in northern Chile has expanded, and the company's stock price has reached a new high in more than 13 years [3] - **Smelting and Import**: The LME's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated. China's refined copper production in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. In August, more smelters reduced production due to supply shortages [4] - **Consumption**: In July, China's copper industry monthly prosperity index was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 155,150 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,498 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on August 20 was 133,700 tons, a change of 8,100 tons from the previous week [5]

沪铜日评20250812: 国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 变量名称 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-01 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收益价 | 79020 | 78490 | 78400 | 530.00 | | | 治铜朗总法联合约 | 成交量(手) | 70041 | 42906 | 80943 | 27,135.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 160884 | 1568991 | 167671 | 3, 992. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 23275 | 21272 | 20349 | 2,003.00 | | | | SMW 1#电解铜平均价 沪铜县差 | 79150 130 | 78530 40 | 78330 -70 | 620.00 90.00 ~ | | | 沪铜基差或现货十贴水 | 广州电解铜现货开贴水 | ...

沪铜日评20250812: 国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | | 变量名称 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-01 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收益价 | 79020 | 78490 | 78400 | 530.00 | | | 治铜朗总法联合约 | 成交量(手) | 70041 | 42906 | 80943 | 27,135.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 160884 | 1568991 | 167671 | 3, 992. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 23275 | 21272 | 20349 | 2,003.00 | | | | SMW 1#电解铜平均价 沪铜县差 | 79150 130 | 78530 40 | 78330 -70 | 620.00 90.00 ~ | | | 沪铜基差或现货十贴水 | 广州电解铜现货开贴水 | -20 | -40 | -15 | 20.00 1 | | | (现货与期货) | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market may continue to oscillate within a range and may show a short - term upward trend. Supply - side factors such as mine disturbances and improved smelting efficiency offset each other, but the decline in anode copper开工率 limits supply flexibility. On the demand side, the weakness in construction and exports offsets the growth in the new energy sector, and the terminal de - stocking power is insufficient. The increase in LME inventory strengthens the market's expectation of looser supply - demand, and the macro - sentiment is suppressed by the Fed's policy and geopolitical tariff issues [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On August 8, the price of the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,440 yuan/ton. The spot premium - discount structure strengthened overall. The discount of premium copper narrowed to 160 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper narrowed to 95 yuan/ton, indicating short - term tight supply in the spot market. The LME (0 - 3) discount slightly widened to - 65.63 dollars/ton, highlighting the divergence in spot premiums and discounts between the domestic and international markets [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On August 7, the LME copper position decreased by 2,005 lots to 263,245 lots, reflecting cautious market sentiment. The SHFE contract position remained stable, and the trading volume slightly shrank, indicating a decline in short - term capital participation [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are many short - term disturbances at the mine end. Although Chifeng Gold discovered new copper resources in Laos, actual capacity release will take a long time. Chile's copper export value in July decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the supply - side growth rate may slow down. Baiyin Nonferrous completed the intelligent transformation of the copper concentrate warehouse, improving the ore unloading efficiency by 40%. However, the anode copper enterprise开工率 in August decreased by 3.96% month - on - month, and there is still pressure on refined copper supply in the short term [2] - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand is significantly differentiated. The new energy sector performs strongly, with the cumulative power generation of wind power increasing by 10.6% year - on - year and the output of new energy vehicles increasing by 26.4% year - on - year. However, the copper consumption in the construction/real estate sector decreased year - on - year, and the demand for copper in the photovoltaic sector declined after the rush - installation, dragging down copper consumption. The high tariff imposed by the US on Mexican copper tubes led to blocked exports, and the domestic copper terminal PMI further contracted (expected to drop to 47.49% in August), resulting in insufficient overall demand - side support [2] - **Inventory Side**: On August 8, the LME inventory increased by 1,127 tons to 21,272 tons compared with the previous day, showing a continuous three - day inventory accumulation trend and indicating obvious pressure on visible inventory. The SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 0.1% to 155,850 tons but remained at a high level this year, indicating weak domestic consumption momentum. The COMEX inventory also increased moderately, and the marginal increase in global inventory put pressure on copper prices [2] c. Market Summary - The copper market may continue the oscillating trend within a range and may show a short - term upward trend. The supply - side factors of mine disturbances and improved smelting efficiency offset each other, but the decline in anode copper开工率 limits supply flexibility. The weakness in construction and exports on the demand side offsets the growth in the new energy sector, and the terminal de - stocking power is insufficient. The increase in LME inventory strengthens the market's expectation of looser supply - demand, and the macro - sentiment is suppressed by the Fed's policy and geopolitical tariff issues [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On August 8, 2025, the SMM 1 copper price was 78,640 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous day; the SHFE price was 78,440 yuan/ton, also a 0.05% increase. The LME price was 9,768 dollars/ton, a 1.01% increase. The LME inventory increased by 5.59% to 21,272 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.1% to 155,850 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.32% to 264,140 short tons [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 7, Chifeng Gold announced a new discovery in its SND gold - copper mine project in Laos, with about 131.5 million tons of ore and a gold - equivalent metal volume of about 106.9 tons [6] - In July, Chile's copper export value was 3.99 billion dollars, a 0.4% decrease from the previous year [6] - Baiyin Nonferrous started the intelligent transformation project of the 19 line concentrate warehouse, which will increase the ore storage capacity from 30,000 tons to 47,000 tons and improve the unloading efficiency by 40% [7] - SMM expects that the overall anode copper enterprise开工率 in China in August will decrease by 3.96 percentage points to 57.15% [7] - The high tariff imposed by the US on Mexican copper tubes has led to blocked exports, and the US copper tube processing fee has significantly increased. The follow - up situation of whether the US will relax the tariff on Mexican copper materials needs to be concerned [7] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fee, CFTC copper position, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipt volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [8][12][13][15][18][20][24][26][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The LME copper inventory has increased, putting pressure on copper prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78,580 with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 78,70 with a night - session decrease of 0.65%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closing price was 9,635 with a decrease of 0.76% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 42,792, a decrease of 19,597 from the previous day, and the open interest was 159,866, a decrease of 3,692. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 18,753, an increase of 4,937, and the open interest was 265,000, a decrease of 1,316 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 18,767, a decrease of 1,581, and the LME copper inventory was 153,850, an increase of 14,275. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 7.80%, a decrease of 0.85% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread was - 67.32, a decrease of 14.59 from the previous day. The Shanghai copper spot - to - futures near - month spread was 130, a decrease of 50 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US ISM services PMI in July was only 50.1, with the employment index shrinking and the price index reaching a new high since October 2022. Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, and will announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours [1][3] - **Industry News**: Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1. Chile's Codelco has suspended the operation of its El Teniente copper mine and postponed the release of its financial report [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Basics - Report Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0012691 [1] - Email: jixianfei@gtht.com [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The firm spot premium of copper restricts the decline of its price [1] Summary by Directory Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,400 with a daily increase of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 78,170 with a decline of 0.29%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,633 with a daily increase of 0.27% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,943, a decrease of 28,068 from the previous day, and the open interest was 167,671, a decrease of 8,522. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,400, a decrease of 20,146, and the open interest was 272,000, an increase of 986 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 20,349, an increase of 727, and the LME Copper inventory was 141,750, an increase of 3,550. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 10.07%, a decrease of 2.21% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 49.25, an increase of 1.51 from the previous day. The bonded - area warehouse receipt premium was 51, an increase of 2, and the bonded - area bill of lading premium was 64, an increase of 4. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 73,100, a decrease of 100 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: Weak US non - farm payroll data has led to a sharp increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in July was 48, showing the fastest contraction in nine months, and the employment index reached the lowest in more than five years [1] - **Micro**: Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and exploitation projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The tariff may trigger competition among US domestic traders. Codelco has cut copper mining operations at its flagship project El Teniente due to an accident [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Group 1 - COMEX copper futures experienced a significant decline of 18.03%, closing at $4.6115 per pound [1] - The copper price initially surged to a daily high of $5.83 following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the White House's announcement regarding tariff exemptions, before plummeting below $4.80 and hitting a low of $4.5030 [1] - The U.S. copper index ETF fell by 19.31%, while copper mining ETFs decreased by 2.9% [1] Group 2 - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) shares dropped by 9.46%, with a cumulative decline of 13% over the last five trading days [1] - Hudbay Minerals saw a decline of 7%, and Southern Copper Corporation's shares fell by 6.33% [1]

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core View The copper market may continue its low-level oscillation in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The contradiction between stable domestic smelting capacity release and tight overseas LME inventory on the supply side, combined with the deepening off - season and high copper prices suppressing procurement on the demand side, makes it difficult for orders in the construction and electronics sectors to support prices. Macroeconomic factors such as the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the weak domestic economic recovery also suppress the valuation of commodities [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Market Data Changes**: On July 8, the SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,510 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly, with the premium of flat - copper dropping from 80 yuan/ton on July 2 to 55 yuan/ton, and the premium/discount of wet - copper widening from - 5 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) premium fell to 79.8 dollars/ton. The SHFE copper's inter - month BACK spread narrowed from 250 yuan/ton to 190 yuan/ton. The LME copper's open interest decreased by 3,072 lots to 281,488 lots on July 7, and the SHFE inventory increased to 102,500 tons in a single week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, domestic supply remained stable with high utilization of smelting capacity, while overseas LME inventory decreased continuously. On the demand side, the off - season effect deepened, with weak demand in the power and electronics sectors. The copper cable operating rate was 72.41% with a 7.52% increase in finished product inventory, and the copper strip processing fee collapsed. The operating rates of various industries were expected to decline further in July. On the inventory side, the inventory differentiation intensified, with the continuous decline of LME inventory possibly reflecting European restocking demand, while the SHFE inventory exceeded 100,000 tons due to weak domestic consumption [2]. - **Market Conclusion**: The copper market may continue its low - level oscillation in the next 1 - 2 weeks due to the supply - demand contradiction and macro - level factors [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: On July 8, 2025, the SMM:1 copper price was 79,910 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from July 7. The premium of premium copper was 115 yuan/ton, down 8.00%. The premium of flat - copper was 55 yuan/ton, down 21.43%. The premium/discount of wet - copper was - 40 yuan/ton, down 300.00%. The LME (0 - 3) was 51 dollars/ton, down 35.70%. The SHFE price was 79,510 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The LME price was 9,665 dollars/ton, down 1.22% [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The LME inventory was 19,109 tons, down 11.87% from July 7. The SHFE inventory was 102,500 tons, up 5.24%. The COMEX inventory was 221,788 short tons, up 0.15% [5]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Enterprise Projects**: On July 2, China Copper Industry established a mining research institute. Northern Copper's calendered copper foil production capacity is 5000 tons/year [6]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: In June, the operating rate of SMM copper cable enterprises decreased by 9.27% month - on - month to 72.41%, and is expected to drop to 71.98% in July. The copper strip processing fee declined significantly, and the operating rate in June was 67.44%, expected to drop to 63.44% in July [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on China PMI, US PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [7][9][13][16][18][22][23][26][27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The strong spot price of LME copper supports the copper price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 78,380 with a daily decline of 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 78,560 with a night - session increase of 0.23%. The closing price of LME copper 3M electronic trading was 9,670 with a daily decline of 0.26%. The trading volume and open interest of both SHFE and LME copper decreased compared with the previous day [1] - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE copper inventory was 54,541, an increase of 7,490 from the previous day, and the LME copper inventory was 107,550, an increase of 225. The LME copper注销仓单比 was 50.77%, a decrease of 1.71% [1] - **Spread Data**: The LME copper premium, spot - to - near - month futures spread, and near - month to continuous - first contract spread all increased compared with the previous day. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash, and the spread between SHFE copper continuous - third contract and LME 3M decreased [1] b. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: Trump claimed to have full control of Iran's airspace, warned of exhausting patience, and called on Iran to "unconditionally surrender", and was reported to have met with the national security team in the White House situation room and considered possible strikes against Iran [1] - **Industry News**: In April, the copper production of Codelco in Chile increased by 20.5% year - on - year to 114,600 tons. The western area of Kakula Mine restarted mining operations on June 7, 2025. The Condor - Teck copper project in Peru obtained environmental approval. Ivanhoe Mines revised the 2025 production target of Kamoa - Kakula Joint Mine to 370,000 - 420,000 tons of concentrate copper, a 28% reduction from the target set in January [1][3] c. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage investment rating: On hold [6] - Option investment rating: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic long - term contract prices are still under negotiation, and the spot TC price remains low. Downstream refined copper rod enterprises report a continuous decline in orders, and future demand outlook is highly uncertain. However, due to complex geopolitical factors and continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, the quasi - precious metal attribute of copper may benefit. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data 1.1 Futures Quotes - On June 16, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 77,910 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 78,550 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the night - session was 78,640 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 78,650 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close of the previous day [1] 1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, in the morning, the offer of iron peak copper with a premium of about 200 yuan/ton was quickly snapped up. Subsequently, the premium of market supplies was 230 - 280 yuan/ton. The supply of high - quality copper remained tight with a premium of 330 - 350 yuan/ton. The premium of BMK, BOR, etc. was 160 - 180 yuan/ton. Due to the contract change, most holders were reluctant to sell at low prices. Thousands of tons of Russian copper arrived over the weekend, with a premium of 100 - 120 yuan/ton for transactions. It is expected that today's spot premium will start above 200 yuan/ton [2] 1.3 Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: According to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian officials signaled their intention to end hostilities and resume nuclear - project negotiations. They are willing to return to the negotiation table as long as the US does not join the air strikes. The weekend's geopolitical conflicts did not affect the transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil price did not rise further, and the Fed's attitude towards interest - rate cuts remained cautious, with the US dollar gradually stabilizing [3] - **Domestic Aspects**: In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [3] 1.4 Mining End - The open - pit mining project of the Canon Copper Mine of Vientiane Mining, a subsidiary of Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd., officially started. It is the first large - scale copper project restarted since 2021, marking Vientiane Mining's return to the "gold - copper parallel" era. After the project is put into production, it will become another important profit point [4] 1.5 Smelting and Import - According to Mysteel, the spot trading volume of electrolytic copper of 53 domestic trading enterprises was 2.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.30 million tons or 12% from the previous trading day. The trading volume decreased, the market quotes varied on the delivery day, and the downstream's purchasing sentiment was low, and the trading activities of trading enterprises also declined [4] 1.6 Consumption - According to Mysteel, the order volume of 31 domestic copper rod production enterprises was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.36 million tons or 55.77% from the previous trading day. Among them, the order volume of refined copper rods was 0.81 million tons, a decrease of 1.39 million tons or 63.29%, and the order volume of recycled copper rods was 0.27 million tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons or 14.24% [5] 1.7 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 7,150 tons to 107,325 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10,782 tons to 47,051 tons. On June 16, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 14.77 million tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons from the previous week [5] 2. Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips in the range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [6] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [6] - **Option**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6]