Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot premium of copper has rebounded, limiting the decline in copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,580, down 1.22% during the day and up 0.10% at night to 79660. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,946, down 0.28% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 89,310, an increase of 27,376 from the previous day, and the open interest was 172,604, a decrease of 6,478. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 14,733, a decrease of 12,807, and the open interest was 290,000, a decrease of 2,734 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 32,469, a decrease of 822, and the inventory of LME Copper was 148,875, a decrease of 900. The cancellation - warrant ratio of LME Copper was 9.03%, a decrease of 0.61% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME copper premium, bonded - area warehouse receipt premium, and other spreads showed different changes. For example, the spot - to - near - month futures spread increased by 10 to 70 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [1][3]. - **Industry News**: The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia owned by Freeport McMoRan remains shut down as it continues to rescue seven workers trapped underground. Panama plans to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the复产 of the Cobre Panamá copper mine, with negotiations expected to start at the end of this year or early next year. In July, the copper production of Codelco and BHP's Escondida mine increased year - on - year, with Codelco producing 118,500 tons (up 6.4%) and Escondida producing 114,800 tons (up 7.8%). Chinese copper production increased slightly in August but is expected to decline in September due to routine maintenance and a shortage of anode copper supply. Ivanhoe Mines will announce the copper production guidance for Kamoa - Kakula in 2026 and 2027 after greater progress in the second - stage water - pumping work [1][3]. 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Fed's September rate - cut expectation is rising, there's an expectation of a shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper shows an initial decline, which may lead to a relatively strong performance of Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors lightly go long on the main contract on dips, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. Summary by Relevant Data Shanghai Copper Futures Data (2025 - 08 - 28) - Closing price: 78,930, down 260 from the previous day [2] - Trading volume: 73,403 lots, an increase of 15,585 lots from the previous day [2] - Open interest: 168,997 lots, a decrease of 6,000 lots from the previous day [2] - Inventory: 21,232 tons, down 55 tons from the previous day [2] - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price: 79,616, down 355 from the previous day [2] - Shanghai copper basis: 260, down 95 from the previous day [2] Other Price and Spread Data - LME 3 - month copper futures closing price: 9,818, up 62.5 from the previous day [2] - Total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory: 0, a decrease of 157,950 from the previous day [2] - LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread: - 82.79, up 7.14 from the previous day [2] - LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread: - 167.53, up 2.04 from the previous day [2] - Shanghai - London copper price ratio: 8.0393, down 0.08 from the previous day [2] - COMEX 9 copper futures active contract closing price: 4.5445, down 0.0025 from the previous day [2] - Total inventory weight: 275,226 tons, an increase of 3,121 tons from the previous day [2] Industry News - Hudbay Minerals restarted the operation of its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba on August 22 [2] - European high - quality copper exports are restricted, and Sino - US tariff negotiation uncertainty affects scrap copper imports. Domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference is negative, and the scrap copper import window is closed. Some copper smelters are shut down or have production cuts, while some new projects are under construction or planned to be put into production [2] - The weekly processing fee of crude copper in northern (southern) China remains flat (decreases), and the operating rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plate capacity decreases compared with last week. Domestic smelters' crude copper maintenance capacity in August may decrease month - on - month, and the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August may increase [2] - Some domestic electrolytic copper production projects are planned to be put into production in the future, and some overseas copper smelters have maintenance or production - cut situations. African agricultural exports delay ship bookings, which may lead to a decrease in domestic electrolytic copper imports in August. The import window opening may increase imports, and the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper increases [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are facing a short - term high - level correction due to the cooling of macro - sentiment. The upside space of copper prices is limited by the high - level dollar and escalating trade frictions, and further breakthroughs require macro - level support. The focus in the near term is on US inflation and employment data before the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the final interest - rate cut decision [1][6] - It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the future, with the range possibly around 78,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton [34] Group 3: Summary of Each Related Section 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Variation Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: SHFE copper prices slightly declined from 79,450 yuan/ton on August 21st to 79,330 yuan/ton on August 27th, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The premium structure of copper was differentiated, with the premium of high - grade copper rising from 165 yuan/ton on August 26th to 230 yuan/ton, indicating a tight supply of high - grade copper in the spot market. The premiums of flat - water copper and wet - process copper remained low, and the supply of ordinary copper was relatively stable. The LME copper (0 - 3) discount widened to - 84.82 dollars/ton, suggesting the existence of overseas hidden inventory pressure [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME copper inventories decreased for four consecutive weeks, dropping to 21,287 tons on August 27th, a 10.4% decrease from the previous week, with an accelerating de - stocking speed. SHFE inventories slightly increased by 1,100 tons to 156,100 tons, indicating limited inventory accumulation pressure in China. In terms of positions, the LME copper position increased to 268,800 lots, intensifying the long - short game, but the high - level oscillation of the dollar index suppressed short - term speculative sentiment [2] b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The expected adjustment of the recycled copper policy has led smelters to stockpile cold materials in advance, and the pressure on the rough copper processing fee indicates that the raw material supply in September may tighten. Aurubis signed a long - term contract for 75,000 tons/year of copper concentrate with Troilus Gold to hedge policy risks in the long - term raw material end. Currently, the supply of high - quality imported copper is still tight, and the circulation of wet - process copper is scarce, supporting the spot premium [3] - **Demand Side**: Downstream consumption shows structural differentiation. The demand for power/long - term order pick - up is stable, but the zero - order procurement is significantly suppressed by the high copper price. The procurement sentiment index in Shanghai monitored by SMM is only 3.16/5, and the high - price copper has a negative feedback on the demand in the construction/home appliance and other fields. The new US tax rule on small - parcel imports may further suppress the export orders of electronic consumer goods [4] - **Inventory Side**: LME inventories are accelerating de - stocking to a near - three - year low, and the domestic social inventory pressure is controllable. However, the limited replenishment of imported resources and the regional outflow of warehouse receipts strengthen the short - term spot tight pattern [5] c. Market Summary - The stockpiling of cold materials on the supply side exacerbates the spot tightness, and the continuous de - stocking of LME provides bottom support. However, the high - level dollar and escalating trade frictions suppress risk appetite, limiting the upside space of copper prices [6] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On August 27th, 2025, compared with August 21st, SMM:1 copper (premium copper) prices slightly decreased, with the premium significantly increasing; flat - water copper premiums slightly increased; wet - process copper premiums remained unchanged. LME copper prices and SHFE copper prices both had small fluctuations. LME inventories decreased, while SHFE and COMEX inventories increased [8] 3. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The change in the recycled copper policy may affect the cold - material supply of electrolytic copper smelters, leading to a decline in the processing fees of rough copper and anode plates. The outflow of SHFE warehouse receipts in Guangdong and Jiangsu regions and the stable inventory in Shanghai. The continuous decrease in LME copper inventories may reflect supply tightness. Macroscopically, the US tariff policy and Fed personnel changes have caused market concerns. The dollar index has declined but remains at a high level, which may put pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, the supply of high - quality copper has been slightly supplemented, but wet - process copper is scarce, and the spot supply is tight. On the consumption side, the high copper price has suppressed the procurement sentiment [33] - In the market data variation analysis, the SHFE price slightly decreased, and the premium of premium copper strengthened, indicating possible spot supply tightness. In terms of position and trading volume, the LME position increased, but the SHFE inventory increased, and trading volume may shrink due to price fluctuations. In the industrial chain supply - demand and inventory analysis, on the supply side, smelters stockpile due to policy changes, and the rough copper processing fee decreases, which may affect future supply. The agreement of Aurubis increases supply, but the specific volume depends on time. On the demand side, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs, and high copper prices suppress consumption, but there may still be demand in the power, construction and other fields. On the inventory side, LME inventories continue to decrease, showing de - stocking, while SHFE inventories slightly increase, possibly due to regional differences [34]

Group 1 - The main copper futures contract opened lower, currently down 0.83%, reported at 78,710 yuan/ton [1] - The international copper main contract has fallen below 70,000 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.62% [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The copper market is currently in a transition period between the off - season and peak season. With the withdrawal of the waste copper investment promotion policy, the short - term output of recycled copper rods has decreased, leading to an increase in the substitution consumption of refined copper rods. It is expected that domestic inventories will decline in the future, and LME inventories will be transferred to China with the import window open. The low - inventory support logic will continue, and copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market oscillated and declined. The US dollar rose against major currencies, and the market digested Powell's speech. The upward trend of A - shares paused, and the market's bullish sentiment decreased. Nearly 4 billion yuan of funds flowed out of industrial products. Shanghai copper retraced throughout the day and closed lower at the end of the session. The near - month back spread widened to 40, the spot price increased by 190 to 79,585, the spot premium decreased by 10 to 130. The spot import profit was 150, the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 8.09, and the LME0 - 3 contango structure narrowed to 78. The market is optimistic about the September premium, and holders are firm on prices [10] 2. Industry News - First Quantum Minerals abandoned the plan to sell its stake in Zambian copper mines. On August 25, it announced that a $1 billion gold deal had alleviated its balance - sheet pressure, so it shelved the plan to sell its minority stake in two Zambian copper mines [11] - Ivanhoe Mines advanced the drainage plan for the Kamoa copper project. After the drainage of the eastern area of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine was completed, mining operations are expected to resume early next year. The company also plans to release new production forecasts in the coming weeks [11] - The US plans to include copper and potash in the list of critical minerals. The US government will add copper, potash, silicon, silver, lead, and rhenium to the draft list of critical minerals, while tellurium and arsenic will be removed [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, processing fees have rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change. Consumption is also hard to have a remarkable performance, but it won't collapse significantly due to relatively stable power grid orders. Macro factors are relatively favorable for copper prices. Operationally, it is still recommended to mainly buy on dips for hedging, with the operation range at 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton. However, attention should be paid to the later development of the Putin - Biden meeting. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put some pressure on LME copper prices [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 19, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,840 yuan/ton and closed at 78,890 yuan/ton, a -0.08% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,690 yuan/ton and closed at 78,550 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decline from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading was light. The SMM1 copper was quoted at 79,010 - 79,190 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 195 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decline from the previous day. The market supply and demand were both weak, and the spot premium is expected to continue to decline under pressure [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The White House is planning a possible meeting of the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest. Geopolitical risks are expected to cool significantly. Domestically, policies to promote consumption are expected to support demand [3] - **Mine End**: The ore body scale of Marimaka Copper's Pampa Medina mine in northern Chile has expanded, and the company's stock price has reached a new high in more than 13 years [3] - **Smelting and Import**: The LME's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated. China's refined copper production in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. In August, more smelters reduced production due to supply shortages [4] - **Consumption**: In July, China's copper industry monthly prosperity index was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 155,150 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,498 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on August 20 was 133,700 tons, a change of 8,100 tons from the previous week [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The increase in import tariffs may push up inflation at the US consumer end and suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the decline in the operating capacity of downstream processing has led to a week - on - week decrease in the domestic weekly social inventory of electrolytic copper, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the closing price was 79020, up 530 from the previous day. The trading volume was 70041 lots, an increase of 27135 lots; the open interest was 160884 lots, an increase of 3992 lots; the inventory was 23275 tons, an increase of 2003 tons. The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 79150, up 620, and the Shanghai copper basis was 130, up 90 [2]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: In Guangzhou, the spot discount of electrolytic copper was - 20, up 20; in North China, it remained at - 120; in East China, it was 25, up 30. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 0, up 30; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 30, down 50 [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 11, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9726.5, down 41.5. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a significant decrease of 155700. The spread of LME copper futures for 0 - 3 months was - 83.25, down 13.7; the spread for 3 - 15 months was - 148.59, down 7.1 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.4445, up 0.03, and the total inventory was 265196, an increase of 1900 [2]. Industry News - **Production Adjustments**: Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in 2025. Norilsk Nickel reduced its 2025 copper production forecast from 35.3 - 37.3 million tons to 34.3 - 35.5 million tons. Anglo Asian Mining's Denir11 copper mine started trial production, with an expected production of 4000 tons in 2025 and 15000 tons from 2026 onwards [2]. - **Accidents and Disruptions**: The non - production underground passage of Newmont's Canadian Red Chris copper mine collapsed and suspended operations. A gun - smoke poisoning accident occurred at the Luojiahe copper mine of Wulong Industry in Shanxi, resulting in three deaths. Hudbay Minerals suspended the operation and exploration of the Show Lake due to wildfires in northern Manitoba, Canada [2]. - **Production Resumptions and Expansions**: The west side of Zijin Mining's Kamoa - Kakula copper mine resumed production in early June, but the east - side drainage may last until September, reducing the 2025 planned production from 52 - 58 million tons to 37 - 42 million tons. The second - phase 16 - million - ton capacity of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador of Tongling Nonferrous Metals may be put into production in the second half of 2025. The second - phase 200000 - ton - per - day expansion project of the Julong copper mine may be completed by the end of 2025 [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support level of 77000 - 78000 and the pressure level of 80000 - 81000 for Shanghai copper, the support level of 9300 - 9500 and the pressure level of 10000 - 10200 for London copper, and the support level of 4.0 - 4.2 and the pressure level of 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The imposition of additional tariffs may drive up inflation at the US consumer end and suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. However, the decline in the operating capacity of downstream processing has led to a week - on - week decrease in the domestic weekly social inventory of electrolytic copper, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai copper futures active contract was 79,020 yuan, up 530 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 70,041 lots, an increase of 27,135 lots, and the open interest was 160,884 lots, an increase of 3,992 lots. The inventory was 23,275 tons, up 2,003 tons. The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 79,150 yuan, up 620 yuan, and the basis was 130 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premium and discount of electrolytic copper in different regions showed different trends. In Guangzhou, it was - 20 yuan, up 20 yuan; in North China, it remained - 120 yuan; in East China, it was 25 yuan, up 30 yuan. The spread between near - month and far - month contracts also changed, with the spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous - one being 0 yuan, up 30 yuan; the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - one and Shanghai copper continuous - two being - 30 yuan, down 50 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 11, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,726.5 US dollars, down 41.5 US dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a significant decrease of 155,700 tons. The spreads of LME copper futures contracts also changed, with the 0 - 3 - month contract spread being - 83.25 US dollars, down 13.7 US dollars, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread being - 148.59 US dollars, down 7.1 US dollars. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper price was 8.1242, up 0.09 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the copper futures active contract was 4.4445 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars, and the total inventory was 265,196 tons, up 1,900 tons [2]. Important News - **Production Adjustments**: Multiple copper mines around the world have adjusted their production expectations. Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in 2025; Norilsk Nickel reduced its 2025 copper production forecast from 353,000 - 373,000 tons to 343,000 - 355,000 tons; Anglo Asian Mining's Denir11 copper mine started trial production, with an expected copper concentrate production of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons in 2026 and later; Zijin Mining's Kamoa - Kakula copper mine's planned mineral copper production in 2025 was reduced from 520,000 - 580,000 tons to 370,000 - 420,000 tons [2]. - **Mine Incidents**: Newmont's Red Chris copper mine in Canada suspended operations due to a collapse in the non - production project's underground access; Shanxi Yuncheng Yuanqu County Wulong Industrial's Luojiahe copper mine had a fume poisoning accident resulting in three deaths; Hudbay Minerals suspended the operation and exploration of the Snow Lake due to a wildfire in northern Manitoba, Canada [2]. - **Mine Resumptions and New Projects**: The unaffected area of Codelco's El Teniente copper mine in Chile resumed operations; the west side of Zijin Mining's Kamoa - Kakula copper mine resumed production in early June; the second - phase 160,000 - ton capacity of Jiangxi Copper's Mirador copper mine in Ecuador may be put into production in the second half of 2025; the second - phase 200,000 - ton - per - day expansion project of Julong Copper Mine may be completed by the end of 2025; the third - phase of Western Mining's Wanglong Copper Mine may increase the production scale from 1,000 tons to 3,000 tons per year, with an expected copper production of 180,000 - 200,000 tons per year; ACC Metals' Cediktene polymetallic mine's copper sulfide ore expansion project will be put into production in the first quarter of 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons; Vale's Bacalhau copper mine project in Brazil obtained an environmental permit in June and may start production in the first half of 2028 [2]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and the support level around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance level around 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market may continue to oscillate within a range and may show a short - term upward trend. Supply - side factors such as mine disturbances and improved smelting efficiency offset each other, but the decline in anode copper开工率 limits supply flexibility. On the demand side, the weakness in construction and exports offsets the growth in the new energy sector, and the terminal de - stocking power is insufficient. The increase in LME inventory strengthens the market's expectation of looser supply - demand, and the macro - sentiment is suppressed by the Fed's policy and geopolitical tariff issues [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On August 8, the price of the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,440 yuan/ton. The spot premium - discount structure strengthened overall. The discount of premium copper narrowed to 160 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper narrowed to 95 yuan/ton, indicating short - term tight supply in the spot market. The LME (0 - 3) discount slightly widened to - 65.63 dollars/ton, highlighting the divergence in spot premiums and discounts between the domestic and international markets [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On August 7, the LME copper position decreased by 2,005 lots to 263,245 lots, reflecting cautious market sentiment. The SHFE contract position remained stable, and the trading volume slightly shrank, indicating a decline in short - term capital participation [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are many short - term disturbances at the mine end. Although Chifeng Gold discovered new copper resources in Laos, actual capacity release will take a long time. Chile's copper export value in July decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the supply - side growth rate may slow down. Baiyin Nonferrous completed the intelligent transformation of the copper concentrate warehouse, improving the ore unloading efficiency by 40%. However, the anode copper enterprise开工率 in August decreased by 3.96% month - on - month, and there is still pressure on refined copper supply in the short term [2] - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand is significantly differentiated. The new energy sector performs strongly, with the cumulative power generation of wind power increasing by 10.6% year - on - year and the output of new energy vehicles increasing by 26.4% year - on - year. However, the copper consumption in the construction/real estate sector decreased year - on - year, and the demand for copper in the photovoltaic sector declined after the rush - installation, dragging down copper consumption. The high tariff imposed by the US on Mexican copper tubes led to blocked exports, and the domestic copper terminal PMI further contracted (expected to drop to 47.49% in August), resulting in insufficient overall demand - side support [2] - **Inventory Side**: On August 8, the LME inventory increased by 1,127 tons to 21,272 tons compared with the previous day, showing a continuous three - day inventory accumulation trend and indicating obvious pressure on visible inventory. The SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 0.1% to 155,850 tons but remained at a high level this year, indicating weak domestic consumption momentum. The COMEX inventory also increased moderately, and the marginal increase in global inventory put pressure on copper prices [2] c. Market Summary - The copper market may continue the oscillating trend within a range and may show a short - term upward trend. The supply - side factors of mine disturbances and improved smelting efficiency offset each other, but the decline in anode copper开工率 limits supply flexibility. The weakness in construction and exports on the demand side offsets the growth in the new energy sector, and the terminal de - stocking power is insufficient. The increase in LME inventory strengthens the market's expectation of looser supply - demand, and the macro - sentiment is suppressed by the Fed's policy and geopolitical tariff issues [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On August 8, 2025, the SMM 1 copper price was 78,640 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous day; the SHFE price was 78,440 yuan/ton, also a 0.05% increase. The LME price was 9,768 dollars/ton, a 1.01% increase. The LME inventory increased by 5.59% to 21,272 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.1% to 155,850 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.32% to 264,140 short tons [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 7, Chifeng Gold announced a new discovery in its SND gold - copper mine project in Laos, with about 131.5 million tons of ore and a gold - equivalent metal volume of about 106.9 tons [6] - In July, Chile's copper export value was 3.99 billion dollars, a 0.4% decrease from the previous year [6] - Baiyin Nonferrous started the intelligent transformation project of the 19 line concentrate warehouse, which will increase the ore storage capacity from 30,000 tons to 47,000 tons and improve the unloading efficiency by 40% [7] - SMM expects that the overall anode copper enterprise开工率 in China in August will decrease by 3.96 percentage points to 57.15% [7] - The high tariff imposed by the US on Mexican copper tubes has led to blocked exports, and the US copper tube processing fee has significantly increased. The follow - up situation of whether the US will relax the tariff on Mexican copper materials needs to be concerned [7] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fee, CFTC copper position, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipt volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [8][12][13][15][18][20][24][26][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The LME copper inventory has increased, putting pressure on copper prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78,580 with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 78,70 with a night - session decrease of 0.65%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closing price was 9,635 with a decrease of 0.76% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 42,792, a decrease of 19,597 from the previous day, and the open interest was 159,866, a decrease of 3,692. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 18,753, an increase of 4,937, and the open interest was 265,000, a decrease of 1,316 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 18,767, a decrease of 1,581, and the LME copper inventory was 153,850, an increase of 14,275. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 7.80%, a decrease of 0.85% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread was - 67.32, a decrease of 14.59 from the previous day. The Shanghai copper spot - to - futures near - month spread was 130, a decrease of 50 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US ISM services PMI in July was only 50.1, with the employment index shrinking and the price index reaching a new high since October 2022. Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, and will announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours [1][3] - **Industry News**: Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1. Chile's Codelco has suspended the operation of its El Teniente copper mine and postponed the release of its financial report [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]