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军事 - 金融双螺旋模式
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美元与军火,美国霸权的双重杠杆
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 11:52
Core Viewpoint - The intertwining of U.S. military and financial hegemony is creating a vicious cycle of military spending and currency devaluation, leading to a global arms race dominated by the U.S. [1] Military Spending - The U.S. military budget for 2024 is projected to reach $997 billion, accounting for 37% of global military expenditures, with expectations to exceed $1 trillion by fiscal year 2026 [3] - A significant portion of this budget, 44%, is allocated to personnel salaries and pensions, raising concerns about the actual investment in weapon modernization compared to China [3] - The funding is primarily aimed at maintaining 140 military bases and 800 overseas military facilities [3] Financial Strategy - The U.S. is leveraging military deterrence and financial extraction by compelling allies to purchase American weapons and binding them to the dollar-based financial system [4] - In 2023, U.S. military aid to Ukraine amounted to $6 billion, with over 40% returning to the U.S. defense industry through arms orders, illustrating the closed-loop of military aid, arms trade, and dollar repatriation [4] Currency Devaluation - The U.S. dollar index has fallen by 8% since 2024, while the U.S. is transferring the costs of its hegemony through "fiscal deficit monetization," exporting inflation globally [5] - The national debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies shifting debt costs to countries holding dollar assets [5] Political Implications - The military-financial model is increasingly constraining U.S. domestic spending, with military expenditure reaching 3.2% of GDP in 2024, significantly above NATO's 2% standard [7] - The military-industrial complex is influencing U.S. politics, as seen in Trump's 2025 legislation linking military spending increases to tax cuts for the wealthy [7] Global Response - The credibility of the dollar is being undermined, with oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia exploring non-dollar settlement systems and BRICS countries promoting local currency swap agreements [9] - To maintain its hegemony, the U.S. is compelled to increase military spending, with the 2026 budget focusing on next-generation aircraft and nuclear modernization for global military interventions [9] Conclusion - The U.S. has demonstrated over 70 years that hegemony cannot be sustained indefinitely, as military spending erodes future prospects and currency devaluation undermines global trust [11] - A new global governance order based on multilateralism is needed, moving away from the zero-sum game of military intervention [11]