智通财经记者 | 刘婷 此外，中金公司研究部大类资产配置研究员李昭表示，财政与货币因素持续叠加，让投资者对美元体系与美元资产的信 心下降，导致美元进入贬值周期，今年美元指数已经下跌10%左右。另外，近期委内瑞拉局势升级叠加俄乌冲突陷入谈 判僵局，全球地缘风险升级，也使得具有避险属性的黄金相对受益。 王文虎指出，本轮黄金牛市除了短期看涨情绪的释放外，也有中长期宏观经济周期的支撑。从经济学来看，当前全球经 济处于康波周期萧条阶段，在这个阶段，全球主要国家债务膨胀的预期增强，引导信用货币本位向金属货币本位回归。 "比如，从德国9000亿欧元投资计划到美国'大漂亮'法案将债务上限提高5万亿美元，从日本21.3万亿日元经济刺激方案 到英国扩大至220亿英镑的财政缓冲空间，中国等全球多个国家亦存在财政宽松预期，而这些都将以财政赤字货币化的 形式呈现，最终提升黄金等金属的金融属性。"王文虎表示。 周一伦敦现货黄金在创下历史新高后跳水，收盘报4331.96美元/盎司，较上日跌4.4%，较盘中最高4550.52美元/盎司跌 4.8%。分析师表示，短期金市可能仍会获利回吐，但支撑本轮黄金牛市的中长期因素仍在，预计2026年黄金价 ...

自12月22日以来，沪银价格上涨超过25%。究其原因，是美联储降息与扩表预期、全球许多国家债务持 续膨胀预期、多个地区爆发地缘政治风险，以及伦敦白银1个月期租借利率持续处于相对高位引发供应 预期偏紧等因素综合作用的结果。 特朗普要求新任美联储主席必须坚定支持降息 特朗普对新任美联储主席提出明确要求，希望其在经济向好时降息，并直言凡是不认同这一立场的人， 都不可能出任美联储主席。特朗普可能在明年1月第一周任命新的美联储主席。美联储主席热门候选人 哈塞特表示，即便三季度经济表现超预期，美联储降息节奏也明显偏慢，美国已落后于全球降息进程， 应加快降息步伐。美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰警示，若美联储明年不继续推行降息政策，可能导致经济面 临衰退风险。美国财政部长贝森特建议，在消费端通胀稳步回落至2%之后，美联储会重新审视将通胀 目标由一个固定值转变为一个区间，例如1.5%~2.5%或者1%~3%。以上因素引发美联储未来的降息预 期。 不过，美国三季度实际GDP年化季率为4.3%，高于预期和前值，同期核心PCE物价指数为2.9%，持平预 期但高于前值，使得美联储明年两次降息的预期时点均延后。 白银兼具金属金融和商品属性 截至 ...

编者按：近日，中国人民大学经济学院原常务副书记、全球领导力学院学术委员会委员 王晋斌在"中国 宏观经济论坛CMF"微信公众号发文指出，美联储存在系统性低估美国通胀韧性和经济增长率的倾向， 导致通胀收敛于2%的长目标时间一再延长。长期利率抬升和财政赤字货币化现象相伴，导致美联储未 来存在困境：靠降息减少财政赤字融资成本将受到通胀的显著约束。现将全文发布如下： （全文约 2300字，预计阅读时间7分钟） 3、美国经济增速 2019年底，美联储认为美国经常长期增速（实际GDP）的中值为1.8%，区间为1.7-2.2%。2025年底，美 联储认为美国经常长期增速的中值为1.8%，区间为1.7-2.5%，实际GDP增速上限上调了0.3个百分点，但 长期增速的中值依然为1.8%。 依据BEA在2025年9月25日发布的数据，2019-2024年美国实际GDP增速年均为2.4%。这一增速显著高于 美联储预期的长期增速中值1.8%，接近2022年底以来美联储预测区间的上限2.5%。 美联储存在系统性低估美国通胀韧性和经济增长率的倾向，导致通胀率收敛于2%的长期目标时间一再 延长。长期利率抬升和财政赤字货币化现象相伴，导致美联 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Buy" for several key companies including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The market remains in a state of fluctuation, with non-ferrous metals outperforming ferrous metals. The focus is on the financial attributes of metals, particularly gold, silver, and copper [2]. - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year. This is expected to influence domestic policies towards a more proactive fiscal stance [2]. - The steel industry is expected to see a shift towards structural adjustments, with a focus on optimizing consumption patterns and enhancing service consumption [2]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in the valuation of the steel sector, moving from absolute undervaluation to a moderately low position, indicating potential for absolute returns [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 32,000 tons to 2.291 million tons, with steel production continuing to decline, particularly in rebar [14]. - Total inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 3.8% week-on-week, while steel mill inventories have slightly increased by 0.9% [27]. - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has weakened, with a week-on-week decline of 2.8% [53]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel has decreased by 0.8% [43]. Price and Profitability - The comprehensive steel price index has weakened, with a week-on-week decline of 1.1% [72]. - The current spot price for rebar in Beijing is 3,110 CNY/ton, down 2.2% week-on-week [72]. - The profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are negative, indicating a challenging profitability environment [74]. Industry News - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products is seen as a significant step towards promoting high-quality development in the steel industry [96]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a draft for the implementation of capacity replacement in the steel industry, which is expected to enhance supply-side adjustments [15].

FOMC快评：降息25bp、鲍威尔讲话偏鸽、资产购买计划超预期 北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月29日降息后年内的第三次 降息，幅度均为25个基点。 美联储决议声明发布后，金价走高，黄金股票ETF（517400）盘中涨超2%，连续3日迎资金净流入。 金价后市怎么看？ 长期看，货币超发及财政赤字货币化背景下，美元信用体系受到挑战；加上全球地缘动荡频发推动资产储备多元化，黄金作为安全资产的需求持续提升。全 球"去美元化"的趋势使得黄金有望成为新一轮定价锚，使得贵金属有望具备上行动能。后续可持续关注全球宏观经济走势及全球央行购金情况。 感兴趣的投资者可以在金价回调时考虑逢低分批布局跟踪黄金现货合约的黄金基金ETF（518800）。 黄金股票ETF（517400）聚焦黄金股板块，也是投资者把握黄金市场机遇的理想工具。该基金选取市场中市值较大且业务涉及黄金采掘、冶炼、销售的上市 公司证券作为指数样本，全面反映黄金产业上市公司的整体表现，或可逢低布局。 每日经济新闻 美联储召开了12月FOMC会议，以9票赞成、3票反对的 ...

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 相关机构表示，北京时间今天凌晨，美联储召开了12月FOMC会议，以9票赞成、3票反对的投票结果决 定降息25bp至3.50%~3.75%。本次利率决定和会后表述总体超出市场"鹰派降息"的基准预期，虽然点阵 图偏鹰，但会后鲍威尔讲话偏鸽，叠加超预期的资产购买计划，市场表现活跃。展望后市，2026年美联 储货币政策预期将先鹰后鸽，宏观流动性继续扩张。 长期看，货币超发及财政赤字货币化背景下，美元信用体系受到挑战；加上全球地缘动荡频发推动资产 储备多元化，黄金作为安全资产的需求持续提升。全球"去美元化"的趋势使得黄金有望成为新一轮定价 锚，使得贵金属有望具备上行动能。后续可持续关注全球宏观经济走势及全球央行购金情况。关注直接 投资实物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全 ...

当地时间12月2日，特朗普突然宣布，将在2026年初更换美联储主席，并点名凯文·哈塞特是热门人选。 这位曾被称为"特朗普经济傀儡"的人物，一度被金融界视为华尔街的定时炸弹。 凯文·哈塞特 与此同时，中国却一批批的把黄金储备从海外运回，堆满了国内的金库。 美债市场也开始出现不寻常的波动，中国从2022年开始持续减持美债，三年时间已经抛售近3000亿美元。 这三件事同时发生，绝非巧合。 那么，哈塞特真的会成为美联储的新主人吗？中国加速回收黄金，是准备迎接什么风暴？ 这种措辞在美国政坛都极为罕见，更别说出自总统之口，市场立刻做出反应，美元指数跳水，黄金、白银价格飙升。 而哈塞特的名字在华尔街迅速传开，这个在特朗普第一任期内，曾担任总统经济顾问的人物，长期被认为是"经济民粹主义"的代表，他明确表示，如果自己 做主席，会立即降息。" 特朗普与哈塞特交流 这一表态彻底击穿了市场对美联储独立性的最后幻想，要知道，美联储的独立性一直是全球投资者信任美元的重要基础。 特朗普要"动刀"美联储 12月2日，特朗普对外宣布，将在2026年初公布新任美联储主席人选，现场一片哗然，因为他并没有掩饰自己的意图，那就是要换掉现任主席鲍威尔。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent monetary policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicate a shift towards more flexible monetary tools, aiming to stabilize the economy without resorting to extreme measures like "massive money printing" [1][4][20]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, from 3.75% to 4% [1]. - The PBOC announced a resumption of purchasing government bonds in the secondary market, which is a conventional tool for liquidity management rather than a sign of "money printing" [3][4]. - In 2024, the PBOC net purchased 1 trillion yuan in government bonds to stabilize the bond market during fluctuations [5]. Group 2: Legal Framework and Monetary Policy - The PBOC is legally restricted from purchasing government bonds directly from the primary market, preventing "monetary financing of fiscal deficits" [3][4]. - The shift in monetary policy reflects a transition from reliance on foreign currency reserves to a more autonomous domestic credit system based on government bonds [13][20]. Group 3: Economic Context and Implications - The historical reliance on foreign exchange reserves for currency issuance has become less viable due to changing global trade dynamics and the need for a more internally driven economic model [11][13]. - The issuance of $4 billion in government bonds in Hong Kong by the Ministry of Finance complements the PBOC's actions, reinforcing the strategy of maintaining international market presence while transitioning to a more self-sufficient economic framework [15][16]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the PBOC's bond purchases, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 4000 points, indicating positive market sentiment without overheating [18]. - The adjustments in monetary policy are expected to enhance the pricing benchmark for government bonds, leading to more accurate asset valuations in the real estate and equity markets [20][22]. - The ongoing transformation in monetary mechanisms is anticipated to create a more resilient financial market, ultimately benefiting the broader economy [22].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a further interest rate cut of 25 basis points, marking the fifth cut since September 2022 [1] - As of October 2025, the total U.S. federal government debt is projected to exceed $36.8 trillion, a $1.9 trillion increase from the same period in 2024, representing 132% of GDP, a historical high [3] - The U.S. has experienced a persistent fiscal deficit, with the deficit expected to reach $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2025, accounting for 5.2% of GDP, significantly above the international warning threshold of 3% [3] Group 2 - The structure of U.S. debt includes approximately 70% in tradable securities, amounting to $25.8 trillion, primarily held by foreign investors, domestic institutions, and the Federal Reserve [5] - In October 2025 alone, the U.S. issued $580 billion in short-term and $320 billion in long-term debt, averaging over $200 billion in weekly issuances [5] - To attract investors, the U.S. has had to continuously raise bond yields, with the current 10-year Treasury yield at 4.8%, a 1.2 percentage point increase since early 2024 [7] Group 3 - The "snowball" effect of U.S. debt is becoming evident, with over $7 trillion in Treasury securities maturing between 2025 and 2026, representing 19% of the current debt total [8] - China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries as of September 2025 stand at $870 billion, making it the second-largest foreign holder after Japan [10] - China's strategy regarding U.S. Treasuries has shifted towards "dynamic adjustment," having reduced its holdings by $120 billion since 2024 while increasing investments in gold and other currencies [14] Group 4 - The ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition has made China's Treasury holdings a significant lever in economic relations, with potential impacts on U.S. economic stability [16] - The Trump administration faces a dilemma in maintaining Treasury market stability while managing the growing debt and pressures from China [16] - The U.S. Treasury has engaged in informal discussions with the Chinese central bank to stabilize Chinese holdings of U.S. debt [16] Group 5 - The U.S. government's economic policies have led to an increase in debt, with a projected $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill and corporate tax cuts expected to add $2.3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade [19] - The U.S. plans to increase defense spending to $860 billion in fiscal year 2026, further exacerbating debt pressures [21] - Global central banks have collectively reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings by $380 billion since 2025, reflecting a trend towards "de-dollarization" [25] Group 6 - Investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries is declining, with the bid-to-cover ratio for Treasury auctions dropping from 2.5 in 2024 to 2.1 in 2025, leading to higher issuance rates [27] - The IMF has warned that failure to control U.S. debt levels could lead to global financial market turmoil, particularly affecting emerging markets [27] - China's central bank has stated its intention to flexibly adjust its foreign reserve asset structure while maintaining asset safety and value appreciation [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the unified support from European leaders for a just and lasting peace, endorsing President Trump's proposal for an immediate ceasefire and using the current contact line as a starting point for negotiations [1] - The statement emphasizes that international borders should not be changed by force and highlights the commitment to continue strengthening sanctions and pressure on the Russian economy and defense industry [1] - Following the statement, gold experienced a short-term drop, with the gold ETF (518800) falling over 5%, and a net inflow exceeding 5 billion yuan over five consecutive days, bringing its total scale close to 30 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - In the medium to long term, the demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to rise due to challenges to the US dollar credit system amid excessive monetary issuance and fiscal deficit monetization, along with increasing global geopolitical instability [1] - The combination of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, heightened uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and a global trend towards de-dollarization is likely to provide support for gold prices [1] - Investors are advised to be cautious of short-term volatility in gold prices and to focus on long-term investment value, particularly in gold ETFs (518800) that directly invest in physical gold and gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]