Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the military industry, highlighting a significant recovery in demand and performance in 3Q25 [6]. Core Insights - The military industry experienced a revenue growth of 18.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable recovery in demand since the beginning of the year [1][9]. - 3Q25 marked the first quarter of positive net profit growth in nearly nine quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 19.5% [2][67]. - The report emphasizes the non-linear relationship between revenue and profit growth, primarily influenced by price reductions and impairment losses [2][67]. - The inventory levels have shifted from negative to positive indicators, reflecting a proactive approach to production in response to order recovery [3][21]. - The report identifies key segments within the industry, such as weapons and drones, showing strong profit growth, while other segments like new materials are experiencing declines [4][53]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 1-3Q25, the military industry (excluding ships) achieved total revenue of 357.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, while net profit decreased by 10% to 19.3 billion yuan [9][10]. - 3Q25 saw a revenue increase of 43.0% year-on-year, reaching 135.3 billion yuan, with net profit also increasing by 19.5% to 6.4 billion yuan [67][68]. Segment Analysis - The weapons segment showed a remarkable profit growth of 196.5% year-on-year, driven by significant increases in key companies [40][41]. - The drone segment also reported a revenue increase of 81.9% year-on-year, marking a return to profitability [44]. - The shipbuilding segment achieved a revenue of 176.8 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 48.1% [45]. Inventory and Receivables - As of September 30, 2025, industry inventory reached 282.4 billion yuan, accounting for 79% of total revenue, indicating a positive shift in inventory management [3][21]. - Accounts receivable increased to 380.3 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing collection pressures but showing signs of improvement as the growth rate of receivables began to slow compared to revenue growth [23][28]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The industry reported a net cash flow from operating activities of -39 billion yuan, although this represented a significant improvement compared to previous periods [28][29]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring cash flow and receivables as indicators of financial health within the industry [28][23].

军工行业 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报业绩回顾 收入和利润"非线性"变化；行业"业绩底"基本确立 2025 年 05 月 08 日 ➢ 业绩回顾 2024 年，民生军工成分（不含舰船）营业总收入同比下滑 5%；归母净利润 同比下滑 48%。1Q25，营业总收入同比/环比下滑 5%/45%；归母净利润同比 下滑 34%/环比扭亏。我们更新观点如下：1）24 年行业需求持续萎靡，收入下 滑。25Q1 需求好转但订单确收需要时间，故 25Q1 收入继续下滑；2）24.12.11， 我们在《25 年度展望："十四五"终章渐近；"新常态"篇章待启》中对减值等问 题进行了分析，从结果上看，减值是影响利润的主要因素之一。板块在收入和利 润的变化是"非线性"的。3）"业绩底"基本确定，板块或将走出底部。 ➢ 趋势分析 收入和利润"非线性"变化；盈利能力持续下降。1）收入端：24 年的下滑 是有预期的，25Q1 的继续下滑是经历过一些分歧的，但由于 25Q1 需求的恢复 受结构和产品交付确收周期的影响，营收同比仍然下滑（YOY -4.8%）。2）利润 端：3Q23~1Q25，行业归母净利润连续七个季度同比下滑，其中， ...