新华财经北京12月9日电农业农村部市场预警专家委员会9日发布《2025年12月中国农产品供需形势分 析》。在本月分析中，市场预警专家委员会分析师将玉米、大豆、食糖供需形势预测与上月保持一致， 将2025/26年度棉花产量、消费量预测双双上调，并将该年度中国食用植物油产量预测调增4万吨。 具体来看，在玉米方面，分析师王锶贤表示，本月对中国玉米供需形势预测与上月保持一致。进入12 月，东北产区雨雪天气较多，不利于粮食物流运输。能繁母猪存栏量处于较高水平，饲料企业采购意愿 较强。深加工企业库存同比偏低，存在补库需求；短期内玉米价格偏强运行，但考虑到玉米产需基本平 衡，后期上涨空间有限。 大豆方面，首席分析师张璟表示，本月对中国大豆供需形势预测与上月保持一致。东北产区大豆收购进 度快于往年同期，高蛋白大豆供应偏紧，价格偏强运行，低蛋白大豆仍有一定余量，需适当加快售粮进 度。美国大豆收获已基本结束，产量为历史高位；巴西大豆播种接近尾声，主产区墒情适宜，利于大豆 生长，全球大豆供需保持宽松局面。 棉花方面，棉花首席分析师原瑞玲指出，2025/26年度棉花采收基本结束，综合棉花加工、销售等数 据，实际产量有望好于预期。据中 ...

Group 1: Corn Market - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs maintains the corn supply and demand forecast for 2025/26 consistent with the previous month, while reducing the 2024/25 corn import estimate to 3 million tons due to import quota management and tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1] - Domestic corn production conditions are favorable, with good growth expected in September, although there are concerns about excess rainfall in certain regions leading to potential lodging risks [1] - The new corn harvest is approaching, and traders are actively selling their remaining stocks, resulting in stable but slightly weak prices for old corn [1] Group 2: Soybean Market - The soybean import estimate for 2024/25 is raised to 104 million tons, an increase of 5.76 million tons from the previous month, driven by improved crushing margins for oil mills [2] - The soybean crushing volume is adjusted upwards to 98.89 million tons, with overall crop growth in major production areas being normal and favorable [2] - The supply and demand forecast for 2025/26 remains unchanged from the previous month [2] Group 3: Cotton Market - The average price for domestic 3128B grade cotton for the 2024/25 market year is reported at 14,963 yuan per ton, with the Cotlook A index averaging 79 cents per pound, both within estimated ranges [2] - The cotton import estimate for 2024/25 is lowered to 1.05 million tons, with ending stocks adjusted down to 7.88 million tons [2] - The cotton yield for 2025/26 is increased to 2,211 kg per hectare, with total production raised to 6.36 million tons, supported by favorable weather conditions [2] Group 4: Edible Oil Market - The edible oil production estimate for 2024/25 is raised by 730,000 tons due to increased soybean imports and crushing volumes [3] - The edible oil production forecast for 2025/26 is adjusted upwards to 30.69 million tons, influenced by increased cottonseed oil production [3] - The market is expected to become more active as the consumption season approaches, aided by upcoming holidays [3] Group 5: Sugar Market - The supply and demand forecast for sugar remains consistent with the previous month, with good growth conditions for sugarcane in southern regions, while drought affects beet production in Xinjiang [3] - The sugar production in Brazil is accelerating, maintaining a market outlook of production exceeding consumption, with international sugar prices fluctuating near four-year lows [3]