Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of edible oils, including palm oil, is expected to remain relatively firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand growth [3]. - The prices of palm oil and soybean oil are affected by factors such as the support of US soybean oil and the results of China - US negotiations [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: - Palm oil futures: The closing price of the main contract during the day was 9,482 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, and 9,524 yuan/ton at night, up 0.44%. The trading volume was 591,676 lots, an increase of 8,395 lots, and the open interest was 451,725 lots, an increase of 18,372 lots [2]. - Soybean oil futures: The closing price of the main contract during the day was 8,418 yuan/ton, up 0.50%, and 8,452 yuan/ton at night, up 0.40%. The trading volume was 297,595 lots, an increase of 30,189 lots, and the open interest was 597,730 lots, an increase of 1,298 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil futures: The closing price of the main contract during the day was 10,053 yuan/ton, up 1.55%, and 10,055 yuan/ton at night, up 0.02%. The trading volume was 350,650 lots, an increase of 126,058 lots, and the open interest was 333,040 lots, an increase of 51,403 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The spot price was 9,400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 80 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 82 yuan/ton [2]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The spot price was 8,750 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was 332 yuan/ton [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The spot price was 9,990 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 120 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 63 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 571 yuan/ton, compared with 478 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was - 1,064 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,046 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Supply - demand Outlook for Edible Oils**: Kenanga Research expects that in 2025, the supply of edible oils will lag behind long - term demand growth by 3% - 4%. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase by about 2% - 3% year - on - year but still fall short of the 3% - 4% demand increase, so edible oil prices will remain firm [3]. - **Brazil's Soybean Data**: - Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to rise to 753 tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 219 tons [4]. - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast remains at 170.3 million tons, and the 2025 soybean export forecast remains at 109.5 million tons. The 2025 soybean crushing volume forecast is raised to 58.5 million tons, and the 2024/25 soybean meal production forecast is raised to 45.1 million tons, and the 2024/25 soybean oil production forecast is raised to 11.7 million tons [4]. - In July 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.71 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.59 million tons of soybean meal and 950,000 tons of soybean oil. The ending stocks of soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil were 1,918 tons, 2.55 million tons and 530,000 tons respectively [4]. - **Shipping Data in September 2025**: In the second week of September 2025, Brazil shipped 2.7182 million tons of soybeans in 10 working days, with an average daily shipping volume of 271,800 tons, a 6.52% decrease compared to September last year; and shipped 1.1369 million tons of soybean meal, with an average daily shipping volume of 113,700 tons, a 31.95% increase compared to September last year [5]. - **Indian Oilseed Planting**: As of September 12, 2025, the total sown area of oilseeds in India was 18.881 million hectares, a decrease of 512,000 hectares compared to the same period last year. The sown area of soybeans decreased by 581,000 hectares to 12.043 million hectares [5]. - **EU's Oilseed Imports**: As of September 14, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 520,000 tons, compared with 730,000 tons last year; soybean imports were 2.67 million tons, compared with 2.77 million tons last year; soybean meal imports were 3.76 million tons, compared with 3.94 million tons last year; and rapeseed imports were 630,000 tons, compared with 1.09 million tons last year [6]. - **EU's Oilseed Crushing**: In August 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of EU 27 + UK was 1.8 million tons, higher than 1.348 million tons in July and 1.785 million tons in August 2024. The soybean crushing volume was 1.136 million tons, higher than 1.046 million tons in July and lower than 1.188 million tons in August 2024. The total oilseed crushing volume in August was 3.187 million tons, higher than 2.591 million tons in July and lower than 3.36 million tons in August 2024 [6]. - **Ukrainian Oilseed Exports**: Due to disputes over customs documents after a 10% tariff on rapeseed and soybean exports, Ukrainian rapeseed exports have been blocked for two consecutive weeks. From September 5 - 11, the rapeseed oil export volume dropped to 9,300 tons, compared with 129,000 tons a week ago. Ukrainian farmers may postpone rapeseed sales until November - December [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8].