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农民工群体
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宏观快评:农民工群体的五点观察
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-12 09:15
Group 1: Labor Flow - In 2024, the total number of migrant workers reached 300 million, accounting for 41% of total employment in China[4] - The net inflow of migrant workers to the eastern region decreased by approximately 4.5 million compared to 2019, indicating a slowdown in labor flow[4] - The net inflow of migrant workers in 2024 was concentrated in the eastern region, with 4.83 million, a year-on-year increase of 410,000[4] Group 2: Employment Trends - In 2024, employment in the construction industry decreased by 2.96 million, while manufacturing and retail sectors saw increases of 1.8 million and 1.49 million, respectively[5] - The construction industry accounted for 14.3% of total migrant worker employment, while manufacturing and retail accounted for 27.9% and 13.6% respectively[5] - Overall, migrant workers are shifting from construction to manufacturing and the tertiary sector[5] Group 3: Wage Dynamics - The average disposable income for migrant workers in 2024 was 4,961 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, but still 1.5 percentage points lower than the national average[6] - Wage growth varied significantly by industry, with construction wages increasing by 4.6%, while service sectors like transportation and repair saw lower growth rates of 1.5% and 3% respectively[6] - The construction industry is categorized as "shrinking but maintaining price," with a job growth rate of -6.9% but a wage increase of 2.2 percentage points[6] Group 4: Consumption Patterns - Migrant workers' consumption has shifted from goods to services, with significant growth in education, housing, and entertainment expenditures[9] - The enrollment rate for migrant workers' children aged 3-5 in 2024 was 94.5%, up from 90.9% in 2023, indicating increased spending on education[9] - The average living space for migrant workers increased to 24.7 square meters per person, reflecting a rise in housing expenditure despite a slight decline in rental prices[9] Group 5: Economic Perception - The GDP growth rate from the perspective of migrant workers was consistently higher than the official GDP growth from 2020 to 2024, indicating a K-shaped recovery in consumption[10] - By the first quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rates for migrant workers and the official GDP were nearly aligned at 5.47% and 5.40% respectively, suggesting a convergence of economic experiences[10] - The future opportunities for consumption will largely depend on policy direction, as previous recovery patterns appear to have ended[10]