宏观政策有望加码推出和落实。 随着高温多雨极端天气影响消退，叠加扩内需促增长政策继续发力，制造业PMI出现回升，但仍位于荣 枯线之下。 国家统计局9月30日发布的数据显示，9月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，较上月上升0.4 个百分点，连续2个月上升。非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，9月份制造业PMI指数继续小幅回升，表明稳增长多项 政策的综合效果进一步显现。生产指数明显回升，采购量指数、生产经营活动预期指数回升，显示企业 生产经营活动有恢复迹象。同时要注意价格类指数均有不同程度回落，表明市场供大于求的情况仍然比 较突出；订单类指数均处荣枯线之下，需求不足问题仍需高度重视。 张立群表示，综合看，当前政策推动的经济回升因素与市场引导的经济收缩力量仍处激烈角力之中。要 以力度足够的政府投资有效激活企业投资需求和居民消费需求，使超大规模内需市场尽快摆脱市场引导 的收缩态势，尽快转入持续活跃扩张轨道。 中国物流信息中心专家文韬表示，9月制造业生产活动加快扩张还有一个重要原因是部分行业企业在销 售旺季预期下增加产成品储备，9月产成品 ...

关于当前经济发展形势，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超在会上表示，从全局 全貌看，尽管面临外部压力，但在宏观政策持续发力等因素带动下，我国经济运行总体平稳，高质量发 展扎实推进。 全年经济增长目标能否按计划实现？如何深入实施"人工智能+"行动？新的"三北"工程总体规划有 哪些特点？9月29日，国家发展改革委举行新闻发布会，就这些问题作出了回应。 经济运行总体平稳 人工智能技术发展和"人工智能+"行动离不开民营企业的积极参与，也将为民营企业带来巨大的发 展红利和广阔的机遇。今年一季度，我国新设立人工智能软件研发类民企25.4万户，民营企业深度参与 人工智能基础研究、技术攻关、商业转化的全链条各环节，活跃在各行业应用落地的第一线。 为让民营企业更好参与人工智能发展，《意见》提出了一系列针对性务实举措。例如，针对算力资 源不足问题，提出将推动智能算力基础设施运营模式创新，鼓励发展标准化、可扩展的算力云服务，切 实降成本、优服务，为企业提供更多普惠易用的智能算力。 国家发展改革委表示，将会同有关部门，多措并举支持包括民营企业在内的各类企业深度参与"人 工智能+"行动。在政策上，在"两重"建设中支持国产算 ...

从需求侧看，政策效能持续显现，展现出较强的韧性和抗压能力。消费方面，以旧换新相关商品零售额 继续保持较快增长，前8个月全国乘用车新能源市场零售量同比增长超过20%；服务消费潜力不断释 放，前8个月服务零售额增长5.1%。投资方面，前8个月制造业投资增长5.1%，信息服务业，航空、航 天器及设备制造业，计算机及办公设备制造业投资同比分别增长34.1%、28.0%、12.6%，有力支撑产业 升级发展。外贸方面，8月份货物进出口总额同比增长3.5%，出口和进口连续三个月实现双增长，对共 建"一带一路"国家出口增长12.8%，贸易多元化成效持续显现。 李超表示："随着各项政策效应充分释放，我们有信心继续保持经济平稳健康发展，有信心实现全年目 标任务。" 全年经济增长目标能否按计划实现？如何深入实施"人工智能+"行动？新的"三北"工程总体规划有哪些 特点？9月29日，国家发展改革委举行新闻发布会，就这些问题作出了回应。 经济运行总体平稳 关于当前经济发展形势，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超在会上表示，从全局全貌 看，尽管面临外部压力，但在宏观政策持续发力等因素带动下，我国经济运行总体平稳，高质量发展扎 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is implementing a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at supplementing project capital, promoting effective investment, and ensuring stable economic development [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - In August, key economic indicators showed fluctuations, but overall, the economy remained stable with high-quality development being advanced [1] - The added value of major industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew by 8.1% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [2] - The profit growth of industrial enterprises improved significantly, with profits turning from a decline of 1.7% in the first seven months to a growth of 0.9% from January to August, and a monthly growth of 20.4% in August [2] Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - The effectiveness of policies is evident, showcasing resilience and pressure resistance, with retail sales of old-for-new products maintaining rapid growth [3] - The retail volume of new energy vehicles increased by over 20% year-on-year in the first eight months, while service retail sales grew by 5.1% [3] - Manufacturing investment rose by 5.1% in the first eight months, with significant growth in information services and aerospace manufacturing investments [3] Group 3: External Trade - In August, the total import and export volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative growing by 12.8% [3] - The diversification of trade continues to show positive results, indicating a robust external trade environment [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The NDRC plans to continue implementing macro policies and enhance economic monitoring and forecasting to adapt to changing circumstances [3] - There is confidence in maintaining stable and healthy economic development and achieving annual targets as policy effects are fully realized [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's private investment is undergoing a structural transformation towards high-quality development, with more private capital flowing into new productive forces, emerging services, and new infrastructure [1][3] - From January to August, private fixed asset investment decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline rate expanding compared to the previous seven months, indicating pressure on overall data [1][2] - Despite the overall decline, the structure of private investment shows positive changes, reflecting strong resilience and playing a crucial role in stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and ensuring employment [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in private investment growth is primarily influenced by a 16.7% drop in real estate development investment, which reduced the overall private investment growth rate by 4.5 percentage points [2] - Excluding real estate development, private project investment grew by 3% year-on-year, indicating strong investment willingness and capability in the real economy [2] - Manufacturing sector performance is notable, with private investment in manufacturing growing by 4.2%, and over half of the 31 manufacturing categories achieving double-digit growth, particularly in the automotive manufacturing sector with a 22.6% increase [2] Group 3 - Private capital's participation in major infrastructure construction is expanding, with private investment in infrastructure growing by 7.5% year-on-year [2] - The service sector is also a hotspot for investment, with private investment in accommodation and catering growing by 17%, and cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors increasing by 7% [2] - These trends reflect the confidence of private capital in economic development and the continuous optimization of the investment environment [2] Group 4 - Despite challenges faced by some private enterprises, the long-term positive fundamentals of the economy remain unchanged, providing broad space for private investment [3] - Private enterprises are actively engaging in emerging industries such as green industries, artificial intelligence, and embodied robotics, showcasing strong innovative vitality [3] - Future trends in private investment include a shift towards high-quality development fields, diversification of investment models, and increased collaboration among investment entities [3][4] Group 5 - To further stimulate private investment, coordinated efforts are needed across multiple dimensions, ensuring that private capital can invest effectively and exit smoothly [4] - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized addressing key issues for enterprises, implementing practical measures to expand access, unblock bottlenecks, and strengthen guarantees [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission is working on policies to promote private investment development and establish mechanisms for private enterprises to participate in major national projects [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent policy measures aimed at boosting private investment in China, indicating a positive trend in private sector participation in fixed asset investment, particularly in infrastructure and emerging industries [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Growth - From January to August this year, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 0.5% year-on-year, while private project investment increased by 3%, outpacing overall investment growth [1]. - Private investment in infrastructure surged by 7.5%, exceeding the overall infrastructure investment growth by 5.5 percentage points [2]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The State Council's recent meeting outlined practical measures to stimulate private investment, focusing on addressing key concerns of enterprises, expanding market access, and enhancing support mechanisms [1][2]. - The government aims to create a fair competitive environment by removing hidden barriers to private investment and providing better financing support [2][3]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Opportunities - Private capital is encouraged to invest in new productive forces, emerging service industries, and new infrastructure, with significant growth observed in sectors like electricity, gas, and water supply, which saw a 23.5% increase in private investment [2]. - In the service sector, private investment in accommodation and catering, as well as cultural and sports industries, grew by 17% and 7% respectively during the same period [2]. Group 4: Long-term Mechanisms - The establishment of a long-term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects is progressing, particularly in sectors like railways, energy, and water conservancy [2][3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is working on policies to enhance private investment in significant projects, including setting minimum participation ratios for private investments in major infrastructure projects [3].

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the national economy in August 2025 is stable, with a focus on high-quality development and the implementation of proactive macro policies to strengthen domestic circulation [2]. Group 1: Production Growth - Agricultural production shows an increase in early rice yield and stable growth in autumn grain planting area [4]. - The industrial sector's added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing increasing by 5.7% [5]. - The service sector's production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year, driven by increased summer travel, particularly in the accommodation and catering industries [5]. Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion - From January to August, retail sales of services increased by 5.1%, with active participation in tourism and leisure [6]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 0.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment specifically rising by 5.1% [6]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a notable rise in sales related to trade-in programs [6]. Group 3: Foreign Trade and Reserves - The total import and export volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with exports achieving growth for three consecutive months [7][8]. - From January to August, the export value of electromechanical products rose by 9.2% [9]. - Foreign exchange reserves increased by $29.9 billion compared to the previous month, indicating a stable upward trend [9]. Group 4: Economic Stability - Key production and demand indicators maintained steady growth from January to August, reflecting stable economic growth [10]. - The urban unemployment rate remained at 5.3%, consistent with the same period last year, indicating stable employment conditions [12]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for four consecutive months [14]. Group 5: Innovation and Industry Upgrading - The rise of artificial intelligence and accelerated digitalization are notable, with significant growth in the manufacturing of smart vehicle equipment (17.7%), electronic components (13.1%), and integrated circuits (23.5%) in August [16]. - The equipment manufacturing sector grew by 8.1%, while high-tech manufacturing saw a 9.3% increase [17]. - The modern service industry also performed well, with the production index for information transmission and software services growing by 12.1% [18].

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in August is stable, with steady progress and no change in the growth stability [2][4][11] - Industrial production shows rapid growth, with the industrial added value increasing by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [4] - The service sector also performs well, with a production index growth of 5.6% year-on-year, surpassing industrial growth [4] Consumption and Investment - Social retail sales from January to August increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with service retail sales growing by 5.1% [5] - Fixed asset investment rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while excluding real estate, it grew by 4.2% [5] - Consumer goods retail sales in August increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with significant growth in furniture and home appliances [8] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, unchanged from the previous year [7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to falling food prices, while core CPI rose by 0.9% [7] Trade Performance - In August, the total import and export value of goods increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving three consecutive months of growth [6] Industrial and Technological Development - The manufacturing sector shows positive trends, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increasing by 9.3% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively [10] - New energy vehicles and related components saw significant production increases, with new energy vehicle production up by 22.7% [10] Policy Impact - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, reflecting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies [11] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the economy are showing positive results, with various sectors experiencing growth [12] Future Outlook - Despite external challenges, the foundation for economic growth remains strong, with potential for continued stable and progressive development [12][13]

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in August is stable, with steady progress and no change in growth stability [5][10] - Industrial production shows rapid growth, with the industrial added value for large enterprises increasing by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [7] - The service sector's production index grew by 5.6% year-on-year, outperforming industrial growth [7] Consumption and Investment - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with service retail sales up by 5.1% [8] - Fixed asset investment rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while excluding real estate development, it grew by 4.2% [8] - In August, retail sales of furniture, home appliances, and cultural office supplies saw growth rates exceeding 10% due to consumption policies [11] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, consistent with the previous year [10] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to falling food prices, while the core CPI rose by 0.9% [10] Trade Performance - In August, the total import and export value of goods increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving three consecutive months of growth [9] Industrial and Technological Development - The manufacturing sector, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing, showed significant growth, with high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.3% year-on-year [12] - The production of new energy vehicles and related components saw substantial increases, with production of lithium-ion batteries for vehicles rising by 44.2% [12] Policy Impact - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of stabilization, with a narrowing year-on-year decline, reflecting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies [13] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing employment have been effective, with various sectors experiencing price increases [14] - The government continues to implement proactive macroeconomic policies to support economic stability and growth [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic performance in August shows stability and progress, with macro policies continuing to exert positive effects on domestic demand expansion, supply optimization, circulation promotion, and momentum increase [1][6][7] Economic Indicators - Major economic indicators remain stable, with steady growth in production, employment, and prices. In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.2% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 5.6% [2][3] - Social retail sales in August rose by 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a continuous release of service consumption potential, particularly in tourism and leisure [2] - Fixed asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 5.1%, significantly outpacing overall investment [2] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate in August was 5.3%, slightly up due to seasonal factors, but overall employment remains stable compared to the previous year [3] - The unemployment rate for the 30-59 age group was 3.9%, indicating stability in the main labor demographic [3] Policy Effects and New Momentum - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment are showing positive results, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances and furniture, both exceeding double-digit growth [4] - Equipment investment saw a year-on-year increase of 14.4% in the first eight months, contributing to a 2.1 percentage point rise in fixed asset investment [4] Economic Circulation and Market Activity - The logistics industry showed expansion, with increased railway freight volume and rapid growth in express delivery services, indicating improved circulation of production factors [5] - The manufacturing sectors for integrated circuits and electronic materials experienced growth rates exceeding 20% in August, reflecting enhanced economic momentum [5] Future Outlook - Despite external challenges, the long-term supportive conditions for economic growth remain intact, with ongoing macro policy effectiveness and deepening reforms expected to sustain stable economic performance [6][7] - Upcoming holidays are anticipated to further boost consumer spending, with policies aimed at enhancing consumer capacity and willingness being implemented [6]