1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, the peak - season demand has fallen short, and the pattern of high domestic inventory and weak reality remains. Due to the delay in the unloading of imported goods, the port pressure has eased. Future upward price drivers may come from the expectation of winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the domestic market lacks effective positive factors, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial position - building is suggested for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, with a poor export outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [18][20]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the styrene price may stop falling in stages as the port inventory is being reduced significantly during the seasonal peak season [23]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [26]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side oversupply pattern suppresses the market [29]. - For PX, there is currently a lack of driving factors, and PXN is difficult to expand actively. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. - For PTA, the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 3.80 yuan/barrel, a 0.86% decline, at 435.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 2.00 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase, at 2646.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 17.00 yuan/ton, a 0.55% decline, at 3079.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the arrival inventory increased by 1.16 million barrels to 212.97 million barrels, a 0.55% increase; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.53 million barrels to 89.14 million barrels, a 1.75% increase; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.10 million barrels to 101.21 million barrels, a 0.10% decrease; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.43 million barrels to 190.35 million barrels, a 0.76% increase [2]. - **Strategy View**: Maintain a low - buying and high - selling range strategy, but wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3 yuan, while in Inner Mongolia it decreased by 27.5 yuan and in southern Shandong by 17.5 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 6 yuan, at 2266 yuan/ton, and the basis was +9. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 8, at - 26 [4]. - **Strategy View**: Due to port fees, the unloading of imported goods has been delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply has decreased slightly, and coal prices have rebounded, reducing coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remains weak. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan, at 1600 yuan, and the basis was - 70. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, at - 75 [7]. - **Strategy View**: The number of short - term faulty devices has increased, and the operating rate has decreased significantly. The cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. Demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has been oscillating and recovering. Typhoon Fengshen is approaching, which will affect rubber - producing areas in Hainan, Yunnan, Vietnam, and Thailand. The long - side believes in factors such as limited rubber production increase and seasonal price increases, while the short - side is concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and weak demand [11][12]. - **Strategy View**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial position - building is suggested for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 14 yuan, at 4702 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4600 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 102 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 305 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC decreased by 5.9% to 76.7%. The downstream operating rate decreased by 8.6% to 39.2%. Factory and social inventories decreased [17]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, with a poor export outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [18][20]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene increased by 124 yuan/ton to 5585 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 6450 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased by 1.73% to 71.88%, and the Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons to 19.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate increased by 0.27% to 38.81% [22]. - **Strategy View**: The styrene price may stop falling in stages as the port inventory is being reduced significantly during the seasonal peak season [23]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 6879 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased by 0.11% to 82.45%. The production enterprise inventory increased by 4.09 million tons to 52.95 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons to 5.03 million tons. The downstream average operating rate increased by 0.64% to 45% [25]. - **Strategy View**: The price is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations as the long - term contradiction shifts to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [26]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price increased by 14 yuan/ton to 6565 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased by 0.76% to 77.27%. The production enterprise, trader, and port inventories all decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased by 0.04% to 51.8% [27][28]. - **Strategy View**: In the context of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side oversupply pattern suppresses the market [29]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 24 yuan, at 6268 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars, at 783 dollars. The PX load in China decreased by 2.5% to 84.9%, and the Asian load decreased by 1.9% to 78%. Some domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance. The PTA load increased by 1.6% to 76%. The inventory at the end of August increased by 1.9 million tons to 391.8 million tons [29]. - **Strategy View**: There is currently a lack of driving factors, and PXN is difficult to expand actively. It is recommended to wait and see [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4384 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 25 yuan, at 4315 yuan. The PTA load increased by 1.6% to 76%. The downstream load decreased by 0.1% to 91.4%. The terminal load decreased. The social inventory in early October increased by 5.3 million tons to 216 million tons [30]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract remained unchanged, at 4003 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan, at 4100 yuan. The supply - side load increased by 2.5% to 77.2%. The downstream load decreased by 0.1% to 91.4%. The terminal load decreased. The port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 57.9 million tons [32]. - **Strategy View**: The industry is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, the peak - season demand has disappointed, and the pattern of high domestic inventory and weak reality remains. However, the port pressure has eased due to the delay in unloading imported goods. Future upward price drivers may come from the expected improvement brought by winter gas restrictions. It's advisable to focus on supply - side disturbances and look for long 1 - short 5 spread opportunities at low prices [6]. - For urea, there is still a lack of effective positive factors in the domestic market, but the price is at a low level with low valuation. It's recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [9][11]. - For rubber, the rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export expectation is weakening. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities in the medium term [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. - For polyethylene, the price may maintain a low - level oscillation in the long term [24]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost - side supply surplus pattern suppresses the market [27]. - For PX, currently, there is a lack of driving factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities [31]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 10.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.39% decline, at 432.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed changes in various oil inventories, such as a 3.52 - million - barrel increase in commercial crude oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite the disappearance of geopolitical premiums and minimal OPEC production increase, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 25 yuan, in Inner Mongolia by 12.5 yuan, and in southern Shandong by 2.5 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 47 yuan to 2272 yuan/ton, with the basis at par [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Import unloading is delayed, leading to a short - term decline in arrivals and a reduction in port inventory. Domestic supply has slightly decreased, and coal prices are rising, reducing coal - to - methanol profits. Demand remains weak. The peak - season demand has disappointed, but the port pressure has eased. Future upward drivers may come from winter gas restrictions. Focus on supply - side disturbances and long 1 - short 5 spread opportunities at low prices [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan to 1602 yuan, with a basis of - 72 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term malfunctioning devices have increased, and the operating rate has significantly declined. The demand is weak, but the price is at a low level. It's recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities at low prices [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is oscillating and recovering, with RU stabilizing and NR being relatively strong. Typhoon Fengshen may affect rubber - producing areas. There are different views among bulls and bears. As of October 16, 2025, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in domestic enterprises have changed, and some all - steel tire enterprises have issued price - increase notices [10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price has stabilized in the short term. It's recommended to set a stop - loss for short - term long positions and enter and exit quickly. Partial positions can be established for the strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 4688 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises has continued to decline, and the supply is strong while demand is weak. The export expectation is weakening. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities in the medium term [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged, while the styrene spot price increased and the futures price decreased. The basis strengthened. Supply - side operating rates decreased, and port inventory decreased. Demand - side operating rates increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and production enterprise inventory increased while trader inventory decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The overall inventory is decreasing from a high level, and demand is gradually picking up. The price may maintain a low - level oscillation in the long term [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price decreased, and the spot price also decreased. The upstream operating rate decreased, and inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased. The downstream operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supply surplus is expected to expand. The supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. The overall inventory pressure is high, and the cost - side situation suppresses the market [27]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 84 yuan. The load of PX decreased, and multiple devices were under maintenance. The load of PTA increased, and imports from South Korea to China increased in early October. Inventory increased in August [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many short - term maintenance operations. There is a lack of driving factors, and it's recommended to wait and see [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 54 yuan. The load of PTA increased, and some devices adjusted their loads. The downstream load decreased slightly, and inventory increased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand shows signs of weakness. It's recommended to wait and see [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 86 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and multiple devices had changes in operation. The downstream load decreased slightly, and port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It's recommended to look for short - position opportunities [31].