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政策研究专题:投资于人,育儿补贴
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-04 13:43
Group 1 - The total fertility rate (TFR) in China has been declining, reaching approximately 1.0 in 2023, which is among the lowest in major economies globally [2][12][15] - The number of women of childbearing age is decreasing, with projections indicating a reduction of over 16 million by 2025 compared to 2020, contributing to downward pressure on future birth rates [16][20] - The Chinese government has initiated a series of policies to support childbearing, including the establishment of a cash subsidy system for families with children under three years old, aimed at increasing birth rates [3][24][27] Group 2 - The child-rearing subsidy policy framework in China has evolved into a progressive model that includes support for childcare infrastructure, economic relief, and direct cash subsidies [3][24] - Local governments have been innovating in subsidy policies, with various models emerging, such as monthly cash payments and tax deductions for childcare expenses [28][29] - The experience of low-fertility countries like Japan and South Korea provides valuable lessons for China, particularly in terms of increasing family-related social spending to improve birth rates [36][37]