Core Viewpoint - The export data for December demonstrates the resilience of Chinese exporters in expanding new orders in non-US and non-transshipment markets, alongside strong momentum in capital goods exports. Despite a high base effect from export surges in December 2024, the export growth remains robust, leading Guotai Junan Securities to adopt a more optimistic outlook for exports in 2026 [1][18]. Group 1: Export Growth - In December 2025, China's export growth in USD terms was 6.6%, up from 5.9% previously, while import growth was 5.7%, up from 1.9% [6][18]. - The trade surplus for December increased slightly to $114.1 billion, compared to $111.6 billion previously [6][18]. - Month-on-month, December exports grew by 8.3% compared to November, slightly above the 7.6% growth in December 2024 and significantly higher than the seasonal average of 3.5% from 2021 to 2023 [6][18]. Group 2: Export Dynamics by Region - By country, exports to the US decreased by 30.0% (previously -28.6%), while exports to ASEAN increased by 11.1% (previously +8.2%), and to Latin America by 9.8% (previously +14.9%) [11]. - Other regions saw a growth of 13.7% (previously +12.9%), with the BRICS countries showing a notable increase of 12.0% (previously +4.1%) [11]. - The strong growth in non-US and non-transshipment exports confirms the resilience of genuine incremental orders amid the ongoing trade tensions with the US [11]. Group 3: Product-Level Insights - The strong performance in exports continues in the machinery and electronics sectors, with significant growth in automotive exports, a recovery in electronics, and resilience in equipment [14][20]. - Labor-intensive and real estate-related sectors remain weak, indicating a shift in export dynamics [14][20]. - The overall structure of exports is improving, with a focus on high-tech products and capital goods, reflecting a shift towards more resilient and diversified export sources [20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The export landscape is transitioning from a focus on external demand to structural factors, with non-US and non-transshipment markets becoming stable sources of incremental growth [3][20]. - Guotai Junan Securities projects that China's exports may achieve moderate growth in 2026, characterized by a "moderate total, better structure, and sustained resilience" [3][20]. - Short-term forecasts indicate a potential decline in export growth in January due to high base effects from December 2024, with trade surplus contributions to growth expected to weaken [20].