日本出口录得三年多来最快增速， 日本出口以三年多来最快速度增长，对中国和欧盟的出口激增。日 本财务省周三公布的数据显示，1 月份出口总额同比增长 16.8%，为 2022 年 11 月以来最大增幅，高于 分析师预期中值13%的涨幅。贸易统计数据显示，1月份日本对美国的出口同比下降了5%，对欧盟的出 口同比增长29.6%。数据显示，随着企业逐步消化美国关税带来的影响，商品出口持续回暖。美国关税 在去年一项贸易协议达成后有所缓和。日美正着手落实日方承诺 —— 加大对美投资，这也是协议中降 低美国对日本汽车进口关税的一项关键条款。该数据发布之际，世界贸易组织对国际贸易前景的乐观情 绪不断升温。世贸组织总干事上月表示，人工智能的快速发展可能会在今年支撑全球商品贸易，帮助抵 消美国关税带来的压力。 责任编辑：王永生 日本出口录得三年多来最快增速， 日本出口以三年多来最快速度增长，对中国和欧盟的出口激增。日 本财务省周三公布的数据显示，1 月份出口总额同比增长 16.8%，为 2022 年 11 月以来最大增幅，高于 分析师预期中值13%的涨幅。贸易统计数据显示，1月份日本对美国的出口同比下降了5%，对欧盟的出 口同比增 ...

"税务巡诊团"还一一回应建筑企业临时用工人员个税申报、申报高峰期办税系统卡顿、2026年高新技术 企业研发费用加计扣除政策等27个问题诉求。参会企业代表表示，此次活动聚焦企业实际需求，政策解 读专业精准，解决办法具体可行，不仅现场化解多项涉税难题，更让企业对最新税收政策有了系统性理 解。 本报讯 记者邓磊报道 近日，官渡区2026年第1期服务企业需求"区（局）长坐诊接诉"暨"亲清茶座会客 厅""税务巡诊"在新螺蛳湾片区开展。官渡区税务局业务骨干组成专业"税务巡诊团"，为花卉平台、出 口贸易、建筑安装等领域的20户企业，提供全方位、精细化的税务业务指导。 活动采用"企业提问+部门回应+现场答疑"的互动模式，聚焦企业生产经营中的高频涉税痛点、难点问 题，实现政策解读与实操指导的"精准滴灌"。在企业纳税信用管理方面，税务部门系统介绍了五级纳税 信用评级标准，重点解读了信用修复流程、A级纳税人激励措施及失信联合惩戒后果，引导企业重视纳 税信用建设。 ...

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, achieving the annual growth target[10] - The quarterly GDP growth rate showed a decline from 5.4% in Q4 2024 to 4.5% in Q4 2025, primarily due to high base effects and policy timing[10] - Consumption contributed 2.6 percentage points to GDP growth, with a contribution rate of 52%, up from 47% in 2024[11] Investment Trends - Total fixed asset investment was 48.52 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure and real estate investments declining significantly[20] - Manufacturing investment grew by only 0.6%, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum[20] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2%, reflecting deeper local government debt issues[21] Export and Import Dynamics - Total goods trade reached 6.35 trillion USD, a 3.2% increase, with exports at 3.77 trillion USD, growing by 5.5%[27] - High-tech product exports rose by 13.2%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall export growth[27] - The diversification of export markets has strengthened, with ASEAN becoming the largest export market for three consecutive years[27] Price and Employment - CPI remained flat year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.6%, indicating low inflation and ongoing deflationary pressures[30][31] - The average urban unemployment rate was 5.2%, slightly below the target of 5.5%, with seasonal fluctuations observed throughout the year[42] Credit and Financing - Social financing increased by 35.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%[45] - Government bond financing rose by 2.5 trillion yuan, while household loans decreased by 2.3 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in financing dynamics[45]

商业部鼓励上市出口企业更积极地利用FTA，商业部也随时准备提供支持和便利，帮助提升出口能力和 竞争力。目前，商业部正加速推动出口市场多元化，减少对美国的依赖，将印度及其他新兴市场视为关 键战略替代方向。 据泰媒报道，近日，泰国商业部部长素帕琪表示，泰国出口商应更充分地利用自由贸易协定(FTA)，挖 掘尚未开发的贸易潜力。她指出，在泰国证券交易所(SET)上市的357家出口导向型公司中，只有193家 通过FTA框架向海外出口产品，仅约54%符合条件的企业使用FTA优惠待遇。然而，泰国已签署了14项 自由贸易协定，其中13项已可实际使用。 ...

Core Insights - China's trade surplus reached a record $1.19 trillion in 2025, a 20% increase, driven by strong exports to various regions despite domestic economic weaknesses [1][2] - Exports contributed significantly to economic growth, accounting for one-third of GDP growth in 2025, the highest level since 1997, while imports remained flat due to weak domestic demand [2] - The economy's growth rate slowed towards the end of 2025, with GDP growth of 4.5% in Q4 compared to 4.8% in Q3, indicating underlying economic challenges [3] Economic Performance - Retail sales growth decelerated to 0.9% in December, down from 2.9% in October and 6.4% in May, reflecting weak consumer spending [3] - Fixed-asset investment experienced its first annual decline in nearly three decades, dropping 15% in December, primarily due to the real estate sector's downturn [4] - Property investment fell by 17.2% in 2025, overshadowing investments in high-tech industries, which the government is promoting [4] Future Outlook - Fitch Ratings forecasts a slowdown in GDP growth to 4.1% in 2026, down from 5% in 2025, indicating concerns about the sustainability of economic momentum [4] - Domestic demand is expected to remain constrained by low consumer confidence, deflationary pressures, and broader investment challenges beyond the property sector [5] - The real estate crisis has left approximately 80 million unsold or vacant homes, impacting sales and prices, and prompting a shift in China's development model away from debt-fueled investment [8][9] Broader Economic Issues - Weak retail spending, deflation, and low confidence levels among consumers and businesses are largely attributed to the decline in the real estate market, which holds significant savings for many households [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is to explain the new regulations regarding the calculation of export income in RMB under the new Value-Added Tax Law and its implementation rules, effective from January 1, 2026 [1][2]. - The sales amount must be calculated in RMB, and if settled in foreign currency, it must be converted to RMB using the effective exchange rate [1][2]. - Taxpayers can choose to use the exchange rate on the day of the sale or the rate on the first day of the month for conversion, and this choice cannot be changed within 12 months [1][2]. Group 2 - The People's Bank of China authorizes the China Foreign Exchange Trade System to publish the daily RMB exchange rates against various currencies at 9:15 AM on working days [2]. - If a public holiday falls on the first day of the month, the last published exchange rate from the previous month will be used [2]. - The article provides examples to illustrate how to calculate the conversion of export income from USD to RMB using the selected exchange rates [3][6]. Group 3 - In the first example, Company A chooses the exchange rate from the first day of the month, with an exchange rate of 7.0288 RMB per USD, resulting in a conversion of 100,000 USD to 70.288 million RMB [5][6]. - In the second example, Company B uses the exchange rate on the day of each sale, with rates of 7.0288 RMB for sales on January 1 and 4, and 7.0230 RMB for January 5, leading to a total conversion of 70.2648 million RMB for multiple sales [8][10].

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP growth reached 5%, with the total economic volume surpassing 140 trillion yuan for the first time[1] - Exports grew by 5.5%, supported by diversification into ASEAN and African markets, offsetting declines in exports to the US[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.4%, with the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 Index increasing by 49.6% and 35.9% respectively[3] Economic Challenges - Real estate investment fell by 17.2%, a larger decline than the previous year's 10.6%[4] - Retail sales growth for the year was 3.7%, lower than the 5% growth in the first half of 2025[5] - The GDP deflator was negative at -1%, indicating nominal GDP growth of only 4% compared to a real growth of 5%[6] Policy Outlook - In 2026, proactive fiscal policies and monetary easing are expected to support economic growth, aiming for a strong start in Q1[7] - The government plans to allocate 625 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement programs and 2.95 trillion yuan for infrastructure projects[8] - Emphasis on increasing residents' income and investing in human capital as key strategies to boost domestic demand[9]

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate against the USD have significant implications for various industries and economic conditions, particularly highlighting the transition into the "6 era" where the RMB remains in the 6 range against the USD [1][4][12] Group 1: Economic Implications of RMB Fluctuations - The "6 era" signifies a long-term RMB exchange rate stability around 6, reflecting China's economic competitiveness and international acceptance of the RMB [1][4] - Historical context shows that the RMB has fluctuated from around 1 to over 7 against the USD, indicating different economic phases and their impacts on consumer behavior and job opportunities [2][4] - The current exchange rate environment is causing structural adjustments in the economy, with some sectors thriving while others struggle, emphasizing the need for adaptation [4][6] Group 2: Impact on Employment and Wages - RMB appreciation affects export-oriented companies negatively, leading to reduced profit margins and potential wage stagnation for employees in these sectors [5][6] - Conversely, companies involved in imports benefit from lower costs, which can enhance competitiveness and potentially lead to wage increases for their employees [5][6] - The macroeconomic perspective suggests that a moderate appreciation of the RMB is generally favorable for employment and wage growth in high-end manufacturing, finance, and technology sectors [5][12] Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - RMB appreciation influences real estate prices by attracting foreign investment, particularly in first-tier cities, while also affecting the financing costs for domestic real estate companies [8] - The stability of real estate prices in first-tier cities contrasts with greater volatility in lower-tier cities, influenced by factors beyond just exchange rates [8][12] Group 4: Savings and Investment Strategies - The relationship between RMB appreciation and savings is complex, as it benefits those holding USD deposits while posing challenges for RMB deposit holders due to declining interest rates [9][12] - Many individuals are shifting their investments from traditional savings to diversified channels like financial products, funds, and stocks, reflecting a need for better returns in a low-interest environment [9][12] Group 5: Internationalization of the RMB - The increasing use of the RMB in international trade enhances its global standing, providing a more stable foundation for its exchange rate [11] - RMB appreciation raises costs for studying abroad and traveling, impacting cultural exchange and education internationalization, while simultaneously attracting more foreign visitors to China [11][12] Group 6: Structural Adjustments and Future Outlook - The transition period presents challenges for industries reliant on low-cost competition, necessitating a shift towards higher value-added products to survive [6][12] - The ongoing economic transformation requires individuals and businesses to adapt by enhancing skills and diversifying investment strategies to navigate the evolving landscape [12][13]

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of Chinese exports in December, driven by the expansion of new orders in non-US and non-transshipment markets, as well as robust momentum in capital goods exports [1][2] - Despite a high base effect from export surges in December 2024, the export growth rate remains strong, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for exports in 2026 [1][2] Export Performance - In December 2025, China's export growth rate in USD terms was 6.6%, up from a previous value of 5.9%, while import growth was 5.7%, an increase from 1.9% [1] - The trade surplus in December rose slightly to $114.1 billion, with a month-on-month export growth rate of 8.3%, surpassing the 7.6% growth in December 2024 and significantly exceeding the seasonal average of 3.5% from 2021 to 2023 [1] Structural Changes - The export landscape is shifting from a focus on external demand to structural factors, indicating a more resilient growth trajectory [2] - The anticipated export growth for 2026 is projected to be around 1-3%, with the potential for further upward revisions due to strong underlying export momentum [2] - Non-US and non-transshipment markets are becoming a stable source of incremental growth, supported by geopolitical conflicts and demand for equipment capital goods [2] Regional and Product Insights - Exports to the US decreased by 30.0% (previously -28.6%), while exports to ASEAN increased by 11.1% (previously +8.2%), and to Latin America by 9.8% (previously +14.9%) [8] - The growth rate for other regions was 13.7% (previously +12.9%), with BRICS countries showing significant improvement at 12.0% (previously +4.1%) [8] - The strong performance in machinery and electronics continues, with notable growth in automotive exports, a recovery in electronics, and resilience in equipment, while labor-intensive and real estate-related sectors remain weak [8]

Core Viewpoint - The export data for December demonstrates the resilience of Chinese exporters in expanding new orders in non-US and non-transshipment markets, alongside strong momentum in capital goods exports. Despite a high base effect from export surges in December 2024, the export growth remains robust, leading Guotai Junan Securities to adopt a more optimistic outlook for exports in 2026 [1][18]. Group 1: Export Growth - In December 2025, China's export growth in USD terms was 6.6%, up from 5.9% previously, while import growth was 5.7%, up from 1.9% [6][18]. - The trade surplus for December increased slightly to $114.1 billion, compared to $111.6 billion previously [6][18]. - Month-on-month, December exports grew by 8.3% compared to November, slightly above the 7.6% growth in December 2024 and significantly higher than the seasonal average of 3.5% from 2021 to 2023 [6][18]. Group 2: Export Dynamics by Region - By country, exports to the US decreased by 30.0% (previously -28.6%), while exports to ASEAN increased by 11.1% (previously +8.2%), and to Latin America by 9.8% (previously +14.9%) [11]. - Other regions saw a growth of 13.7% (previously +12.9%), with the BRICS countries showing a notable increase of 12.0% (previously +4.1%) [11]. - The strong growth in non-US and non-transshipment exports confirms the resilience of genuine incremental orders amid the ongoing trade tensions with the US [11]. Group 3: Product-Level Insights - The strong performance in exports continues in the machinery and electronics sectors, with significant growth in automotive exports, a recovery in electronics, and resilience in equipment [14][20]. - Labor-intensive and real estate-related sectors remain weak, indicating a shift in export dynamics [14][20]. - The overall structure of exports is improving, with a focus on high-tech products and capital goods, reflecting a shift towards more resilient and diversified export sources [20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The export landscape is transitioning from a focus on external demand to structural factors, with non-US and non-transshipment markets becoming stable sources of incremental growth [3][20]. - Guotai Junan Securities projects that China's exports may achieve moderate growth in 2026, characterized by a "moderate total, better structure, and sustained resilience" [3][20]. - Short-term forecasts indicate a potential decline in export growth in January due to high base effects from December 2024, with trade surplus contributions to growth expected to weaken [20].