广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年全球市场有一系列流行宏观叙事，包括美元信用长期走弱、全球产业链供应链重构、黄金是新一轮货 币体系的锚、AI是新一轮产业链变革的基础设施、有色金属是新阶段的原油等。叙事背后既有客观的基本面趋势，也 有特定宏观阶段下的概念性理解。全球财政环境、货币环境、贸易环境、技术环境的过快变化是叙事产生的天然土 壤。 第二， 2025年国内资产既存在基本面驱动，如外需和"两新"相关链条；又受全球主流叙事影响，高收益率资产集中 于有色、AI产业链。中观"温差"的存在是资产对叙事敏感的背景之一：新一轮产业投资相对集中，新兴部门景气度 高；投资、消费、地产偏弱，传统部门景气度低。这一则对应狭义流动性充裕，金融市场风险偏好较高；二则带来信 用扩张约束，盈利驱动的资产在广度上不够。2013-2015、2019-2020年也有类似逻辑。 第三， 2026年可能会形成一定的"镜像"关系，全球叙事预计趋于收敛。一是全球贸易环境不确定性下降，中美吉隆 坡磋商暂缓一年关税；中期选举前特朗普对其他区域可能锁定"成果"、减少折腾。二是经过2025年集中定价后，美 ...

主要出口伙伴中，前10个月京津冀地区对共建"一带一路"国家出口6966.2亿元，同比增长7.9%，占 地区出口总值的58.2%；对拉美、非洲、中亚五国出口同比分别增长14.6%、31.9%、40.2%，全球市场 多元拓展。从主要出口主体看，民营企业出口5618.6亿元，同比增长15.7%，占地区出口总值的46.9%， 民营企业在出口中发挥重要作用。主要出口商品中，汽车零配件、船舶、医药品出口保持强势，同比分 别增长12.8%、176.5%、37.5%。 人民日报海外版北京11月17日电（记者王洲）记者从北京海关获悉：今年前10个月，京津冀地区与 240余个国家和地区保持稳定贸易往来，地区进出口3.91万亿元，其中出口达1.2万亿元，同比增长 5.6%，创历史同期新高。 ...

Group 1 - Japan's recent diplomatic actions indicate a shift in its stance towards China, with officials expressing regret over provocative statements regarding Taiwan [1][5] - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant decline, particularly in tourism and consumer sectors, with the consumption index showing negative growth for the first time [2][3] - China's tourism to Japan reached 7.5 million in the first three quarters, making it Japan's largest source of inbound tourism, highlighting the economic interdependence between the two nations [5] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions have led to a reassessment of Japan's military posture, with concerns about its reliance on the U.S. for defense and the implications of its provocative rhetoric [13][15] - The current global economic landscape is undergoing transformation, with potential opportunities arising from shifts in technology and industry, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [20][21] - The situation underscores the importance of understanding the broader implications of diplomatic actions on economic stability and market dynamics [28][29]

Company Overview - Guoxing Optoelectronics (SZ 002449) announced an investor meeting scheduled for November 7, 2025, from 14:00 to 17:30, where the chairman Lei Zihe and vice president Guo Haojie will participate in discussions with investors [1] - For the first half of 2025, Guoxing Optoelectronics reported that its revenue composition was as follows: 77.04% from the electronic components industry, 17.41% from export trade, and 5.55% from other businesses [1] Industry Insights - The news highlights the growing interest in high-value products showcased at the Import Expo, indicating a trend towards premium offerings in the market [1]

今日周六（11月8日）休市交易员和投资者今日将目光聚焦于近期表现波动的美国股指。若美股今日出 现明显抛售压力，避险资产黄金和白银有望获得更多买盘支撑。12月交割的黄金期货盘中报价上涨8.6 美元，至每盎司3999.6美元。 周五官方数据揭晓，中国出口出现八个月来的首次下滑，同比下降1.1%。其中，对除美国外所有国家 的出口增长3.1%，而对美出口降幅超25%。此前，中国企业积极开拓新市场，其他目的地的出口增长弥 补了跨太平洋出口的下滑，使出口一直保持韧性。自2月受春节假期影响活动放缓后，出口每月均实现 增长，然而10月这一态势戛然而止。上海港处理的集装箱数量降至4月以来最低，几乎所有预测机构都 对10月出口整体下滑感到意外。这表明在高关税和全球贸易不确定性的双重压力下，中国的外部经济韧 性开始减弱，也凸显出中国需持续强化内需支持，以防消费疲软拖累经济增长。与此同时，中国10月原 材料进口普遍走弱，主要大宗商品中仅原油进口表现强势。 另外，美国联邦政府停摆已进入第34天且仍在持续，由此引发航班缩减等一系列问题。美国联邦航空管 理局（FAA）因这创纪录的政府停摆，下令在全国范围内缩减航班，该命令于今日上午生效。此 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a rational perspective on investment opportunities in the Chinese stock market, which has shown significant growth despite geopolitical challenges and economic slowdowns. The MSCI China Index has increased by 36.22% year-to-date as of October 29, 2025, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 30.42% during the same period [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Themes - Theme 1: Companies with Global Influence in Innovation - China has nurtured a number of globally influential companies, particularly in the healthcare sector, where Chinese pharmaceutical firms are increasingly licensing intellectual property to global firms. This trend is expected to generate patent royalties and is less politically sensitive compared to sectors like semiconductors [5][6]. - Theme 2: Companies Diversifying Export Markets - China's global export total continues to rise, driven by strong growth in exports to Latin America and other emerging markets, despite trade tensions with the U.S. Companies focusing on non-U.S. markets may present overlooked investment opportunities [8]. - Theme 3: Industries Benefiting from "Anti-Involution" Policies - The Chinese government has implemented policies to address over-competition, known as "involution," which aim to improve quality of life and promote sustainable economic growth. These policies are expected to positively impact industries such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and agriculture by reducing excess capacity and improving profitability [10]. - Theme 4: Industry Leaders Increasing Domestic Market Share - As China transitions to high-quality development, local industry leaders in sectors like fintech, sportswear, and functional beverages are seizing opportunities to expand their market share, demonstrating resilience against economic challenges [12]. - Theme 5: Opportunities from Corporate Governance Reforms - Recent governance reforms in China aim to enhance shareholder returns and improve corporate governance. Companies with strong governance are likely to generate substantial excess returns, as evidenced by high levels of profitability and stock buybacks in the market [14]. Group 2: Broader Emerging Market Perspective - The article suggests that emerging markets, including China, are often misunderstood but hold unique advantages and opportunities. Investors should recognize the potential for excess returns from companies benefiting from the discussed trends [16][17]. - Emerging market equities remain an under-allocated and undervalued asset class, with compelling investment narratives emerging from sectors like artificial intelligence and structural reforms in countries like India [16].

Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points, more than the new orders index which dropped by 0.9 percentage points, highlighting greater supply-side constraints[15] - High inventory levels and a reduction in working days (only 18 days in October, down 3 days year-on-year) are contributing to production constraints[3] Profitability and Cost Pressures - In September, industrial profits rose by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5% year-on-year, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9%[4] - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.4%, with a marginal decline in profit contribution from costs, indicating ongoing cost pressures[4][29] Policy Measures and Economic Support - The government has initiated new policy financial tools amounting to nearly 300 billion yuan to support debt resolution and investment, with a focus on digital economy and infrastructure[5] - A total of 5 trillion yuan has been allocated to local governments to support debt resolution and project construction, which may alleviate investment pressures[5][34] Consumer Behavior and Retail Trends - Anticipated "Double Eleven" promotions are expected to temporarily boost retail sales, with a projected rebound of 3.4% in October retail sales[5] - Service consumption showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% during the holiday period, outperforming goods consumption which grew by 3.6%[5] Export Performance - October exports are expected to maintain resilience at 7% year-on-year, supported by a surge in foreign trade cargo volume, which increased by 18% in the last week of October[6][45] - The U.S. threat of imposing 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods has led to a "rush to export," further bolstering export figures[6] Inflation Indicators - The CPI is expected to recover to above 0% in October, driven by low base effects and resilient service consumption[7][61] - The PPI is projected to rise to around -2.1%, influenced by rising prices in upstream commodities like copper and coal, despite ongoing overcapacity in downstream sectors[7][57] Economic Growth Outlook - The actual GDP growth for October is estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth despite supply-side constraints and demand-side risks[8][72] - The nominal GDP growth is projected at 3.3%, reflecting the overall economic performance amidst various pressures[8][73]

环球时报消息，在中美双方于上周就解决各自关切的经贸问题达成联合安排后，多家美国媒体也在陆续刊 发报道，复盘中美这一轮博弈。 其中，美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）就在一篇11月2日的文章中，引用中国海关总署的官方数据制作了4张 简单的图表，并以此直观地呈现出了两个大国在博弈时，发生了哪些变化。 CNN称，虽然中国对美国的出口额随着特朗普第二个任期的到来同比出现下降，但中国与其他市场的贸易 同期都在增加，这也令中国在对美出口总额同比下降的情况下，今年截至9月的出口总额仍实现了6.1%的 增长。 CNN首先拿出的，是2024年9月到今年9月间，美国在中国出口贸易中所占比例的走势图。CNN称，这张图 表反映出在美国总统特朗普第二次上台后，中国对美国市场的依赖程度正在下降。 "与1年前的15%相比，如今美国占中国出口贸易的10%左右。"CNN写道。 CNN接下来呈现的图表，是横向对比去年9月到今年9月中国对美国、欧盟以及东盟的出口数据。 CNN呈现的第三张图表和第四张图表，则是中国进口美国大豆和牛肉的情况，统计范围是去年1月至今年9 月。这两张图表的共性是，中国很快就找到了替代美国相关农产品的来源，比如巴西、澳大利亚以及 ...

Macro Overview - The article emphasizes the shift from β factors to α factors in understanding China's export dynamics, particularly in the context of global geopolitical tensions and technological transformations [2][3] - The correlation between global PMI and China's export growth has been disrupted since 2023 due to internal structural adjustments and intensified global trade frictions [2] 2026 Export Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that global economic weakness will be limited, with the IMF predicting a rebound in global GDP growth compared to 2025, leading to an expected export growth rate of 1-3% for China [3] New Trade Patterns - The formation of new trade patterns is attributed to tariff shocks and the restructuring of geopolitical relationships, particularly the complex trade dynamics between China and the U.S. [7] - The article notes that while transshipment trade has increased, it has not fully compensated for the decline in direct trade with the U.S., leading to a focus on non-U.S. markets as new opportunities [7] Export Performance by Sector - Machinery and electrical equipment exports are highlighted as strong performers, indicating sustained global demand for Chinese capital goods amid geopolitical risks [7] - The article discusses the phenomenon of order front-loading, which has led to a temporary overextension in export orders, particularly to the U.S. and transshipment markets [7] Regulatory and Tariff Considerations - The impact of increased regulatory scrutiny on transshipment, particularly for low-value or non-processed goods, is noted, with potential tariffs leading to an estimated 1.3% decline in total Chinese exports [7] - The likelihood of significant new tariffs is considered low due to mutual countermeasures between China and the U.S. and the completion of most global tariff negotiations [7] Currency and Pricing Dynamics - The appreciation of the Chinese currency is expected to reduce the incremental value of exports priced in foreign currencies, although the overall export volume may remain stable [7] Real Estate Investment Trends - Real estate investment in China has seen a significant decline, with a cumulative year-on-year drop of 13.9% in the first nine months, raising concerns about how to mitigate this downturn [8] - Despite pressures, there are signs of stabilization in new construction and sales metrics, although the overall investment environment remains challenging [8][9] Brain-Computer Interface Market - The brain-computer interface (BCI) market is at a critical juncture with significant technological breakthroughs and clinical validations expected to drive commercialization [12][13] - Government policies are actively supporting the development of the BCI industry, with a focus on enhancing innovation capabilities and establishing a reliable industry framework by 2030 [13] - Investment activity in the BCI sector has surged, with over 1000 disclosed transactions and nearly 400 companies receiving funding, indicating strong market potential [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the classification management of export enterprises, which is crucial for optimizing export tax refund processes and enhancing taxpayer compliance with tax laws. It outlines the different management categories and the corresponding services provided to each category of export enterprises [1]. Summary by Sections What is Export Enterprise Classification Management? - Export enterprise classification management is a significant system established by the State Administration of Taxation to optimize export tax refund management, improve taxpayer compliance, and support foreign trade development. Enterprises are classified into four categories based on their asset status, tax credit level, and internal risk control, allowing for differentiated services [1]. Different Categories and Corresponding Services - The services provided to export enterprises vary by category, as follows: - **Category 1 Enterprises**: - Export tax refund processing time: up to 5 working days - Priority handling and green channel services available - No paper declaration required [1] - **Category 2 Enterprises**: - Export tax refund processing time: up to 10 working days - No priority handling or green channel services [1] - **Category 3 Enterprises**: - Export tax refund processing time: up to 15 working days - No priority handling or green channel services [1] - **Category 4 Enterprises**: - Export tax refund processing time: up to 20 working days - Must provide paper documentation as per regulations [1] Conditions for Category 1 Enterprises - For Category 1 enterprises, the following conditions must be met for a 5-day processing time: - Electronic data must match customs export clearance information and VAT invoice information - Accurate calculation of export tax refund amount - No involvement of pre-warning risk information from tax authorities - Goods must be purchased from suppliers with A or B level tax credit [3] Conditions for Category 2 Enterprises - For Category 2 enterprises, the following conditions must be met for a 10-day processing time: - Compliance with export tax refund regulations - Electronic data must match customs export clearance information and VAT invoice information - No audit doubts or all doubts must be resolved [4] Conditions for Category 3 Enterprises - For Category 3 enterprises, the following conditions must be met for a 15-day processing time: - Compliance with export tax refund regulations - Electronic data must match customs export clearance information and VAT invoice information - No audit doubts or all doubts must be resolved [5] Conditions for Category 4 Enterprises - For Category 4 enterprises, the following conditions must be met for a 20-day processing time: - Paper documentation must match electronic data logically - Electronic data must match customs export clearance information and VAT invoice information - Tax authorities will conduct investigations on invoices from suppliers [6] Important Notes - Export tax refund applications may not be subject to the specified processing time limits if: - They do not meet the application conditions - They involve risk information from customs or foreign exchange management departments [7]