德国对美出口连续5个月下滑 中新社柏林10月9日电 (记者 马秀秀)根据德国联邦统计局9日公布的初步数据，2025年8月德国对美国出 口额环比下降2.5%，连续第五个月下滑。分析人士指出，美国加征关税政策正日益成为以出口为导向 的德国经济的沉重负担。 数据显示，德国8月对美出口额同比下降20.1%。经日历与季节性调整后，当月德国对美出口额为109亿 欧元，创下自2021年11月以来的最低水平。 来源：中国新闻网 总体来看，德国8月出口总额为1297亿欧元，环比下降0.5%。在其他主要出口市场中，德国对中国出口 额为68亿欧元，环比增长5.4%。 经济学家预计，德国对美出口的下滑趋势短期内仍将持续。尽管慕尼黑伊弗经济研究所9月最新景气调 查显示，德国出口行业的景气状况较8月有所改善，但该研究所调查主管克劳斯·沃尔拉贝指出，持续性 的复苏尚未出现。 宏观经济与经济周期研究所科学主管塞巴斯蒂安·杜利恩表示，与近期公布的德国工业新订单和生产数 据类似，8月出口数据同样反映出美国关税政策的负面影响。他指出，未来几个月，德国经济难以像以 往复苏阶段那样依靠出口走出困境。(完) 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中 ...

Nonye Ayeni is receiving guests, taking meetings and encouraging visitors to sign the guest book inside the buzzing Nigerian pavilion at the Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF) 2025 in Algiers. Attending her second IATF from 4 to 10 September, the executive director and CEO of the Nigeria Export Promotion Council (NEPC) is delighted with Nigeria’s pavilion and footfalls.“You can see for yourself. This is bigger and better than Cairo,” she says, waving to take in the expansive space. “You can see people, buyers, ...

为维护国家主权、安全和发展利益，根据《中华人民共和国对外贸易法》《中华人民共和国国家安全 法》《中华人民共和国反外国制裁法》等有关法律，不可靠实体清单工作机制依据《不可靠实体清单规 定》第二条、第八条和第十条等有关规定，决定将萨罗尼克科技公司（Saronic Technologies, Inc.）、爱 尔康公司（Aerkomm Inc.）、国际海洋工程公司（Oceaneering International, Inc.）等3家实体列入不可靠 实体清单，并采取以下处理措施： 一、禁止上述企业从事与中国有关的进出口活动； 二、禁止上述企业在中国境内新增投资。 公告未尽事宜，按《不可靠实体清单规定》执行。 以上措施，均自两则公告公布之日（2025年9月25日）起正式实施。 （原标题：商务部公告！中方对6家美国公司采取措施） 据商务部网站消息，商务部于9月25日发布公告，将3家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单、3家美国企业 列入不可靠实体清单。 根据《中华人民共和国出口管制法》和《中华人民共和国两用物项出口管制条例》等法律法规有关规 定，为维护国家安全和利益，履行防扩散等国际义务，商务部决定将亨廷顿·英格尔斯工业公司 （ ...

面对单边主义、保护主义，我们不断扩大"朋友圈"，拉紧经贸合作纽带，大力提振企业信心，共同应对 外部环境的急剧变化。今年1至8月，全省出口同比增长7.7%，比全国快0.8个点，进出口、出口规模均 达历史同期新高。出口总额占全国15.9%，持续32个月居全国第二。 浙江出口攻城略地，刚刚公布的数据显示，2023年1月至今年8月全省出口总值持续居全国第二。上半年 浙江经济增速与宁夏并列全国第4，有着出口的重要贡献。这是经济大省挑大梁的应有业绩，也印证了 浙江的经济韧性。 全球及我国出口格局正在发生较大变动。根据WTO数据，全球出口增长于2012年断崖式回落，从2011 年的增长19.8%，跌至仅增长0.9%，此后即2011至2024年，全球出口年均增长2.2%，比上一个10年低9.2 个点。 再看我国出口，2011至2024年，年均增长5.0%，比全球高2.7个点，但比我国上一个10年出口年均增长 低16.7个点。2021年，我国商品出口占全球出口额14.9%后开始回落，到2024年，我国出口占全球 14.6%，比2021年降低0.3个点。我国工业品出口2022年达到占全球工业品出口21.2%后回落，2024年占 ...

Supply and Demand - Construction starts are showing marginal improvement, with recent weeks indicating a recovery in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, although they remain at historical lows[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining high levels while PTA rates are at historical lows[2] - Demand in construction remains weak, with negative year-on-year growth in construction demand and a decline in automobile sales[2] Commodity Prices - Gold prices have significantly increased, while oil prices are fluctuating weakly; copper and aluminum prices are also on the rise[3] - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing limited support from demand, leading to overall price fluctuations[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have turned positive year-on-year, with a 23% decrease in average transaction area in major cities compared to the previous two weeks, but still showing improvement compared to 2023 and 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen increasing year-on-year by -2%, +26%, and +23% respectively[4] Exports - Exports for the first 14 days of September are estimated to have increased by approximately 4.1% year-on-year, supported by high-frequency port data[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuations in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.46% as of September 14[72] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 24,315 billion yuan through reverse repos in recent weeks[72] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[77]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining core investment themes while exploring new platforms in the A-share market for the fourth quarter of 2025 [2][4] - Key recommended sectors include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, military industry, financial IT, power equipment, and agricultural products [3] - The report anticipates a more abundant liquidity environment due to expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, which may enhance market expectations [4][10] Group 2 - Economic growth is projected to steadily decline, with GDP growth expected at 5.0% for 2025, and 4.6% for Q4 2025 [10][11] - Consumer retail sales are forecasted to grow by 3.8% for the year, with a significant slowdown in investment across various sectors, particularly in real estate, which is expected to decline by 14.3% [10][11] - The report highlights that while exports are expected to maintain a high level of activity, a slight decline in growth is anticipated in Q4 due to high base effects from the previous year [19][24] Group 3 - The report discusses the anticipated recovery of the RMB exchange rate, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may attract foreign capital inflows [42][61] - It notes that the central bank has a clear intention to guide the RMB towards appreciation, which is crucial for maintaining market liquidity [47][61] - The report also indicates that the RMB's appreciation could lead to increased foreign investment in domestic stocks, enhancing overall market liquidity [61][62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows signs of improved quality and prominent structural highlights, but internal momentum needs consolidation and demand requires further boosting. The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the 5% annual target achievable [4]. - In the equity market, the foundation for a slow - bull market remains. The index is expected to oscillate strongly, and investors are advised to actively participate and focus on high - growth sectors. In the bond market, the upward movement is limited, and there is insufficient momentum for a trending long - position. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, with the expected performance being precious metals > industrial metals > energy products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month Economic Overview - **Positive aspects**: The service industry is highly prosperous, with the August service business activity index reaching 50.5%. New and old kinetic energy is accelerating transformation, and the "Two New" policies have strong supporting effects. The "Anti - involution" policy shows results, with the PPI ending its 8 - month decline. The capital activation degree increases, and the profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows [4][5]. - **Challenges**: Economic data awaits trend improvement, with the manufacturing PMI below the boom - bust line for 5 consecutive months. Internal growth momentum needs consolidation, overseas demand is uncertain, real estate drags on the economy, and the profit structure of industrial enterprises above designated size may further differentiate [4][6]. 3.2 8 - month Economic Sub - data Interpretation - **Manufacturing PMI**: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with the production index driving the slight rebound. High - tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs show an upward trend [7]. - **Fixed - asset investment**: The growth rate continues to decline, mainly due to real estate drag. However, high - tech investment remains prosperous [9]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate slightly drops, but the "National Subsidy" and service - consumption policies are expected to support future consumption [10]. - **Exports**: The short - term growth slows down, and the future trend is uncertain due to factors such as high - base effects, policy changes, and overseas economic conditions [11][13]. - **Real estate**: Sales continue to be weak, with both sales area and investment decline expanding. Second - hand housing prices have not stopped falling [14]. - **Production**: It maintains a high level of prosperity, with the added value of industries above designated size growing steadily. Manufacturing is the core support [15]. - **Prices**: The "Anti - involution" policy affects PPI. CPI is weak, mainly dragged down by food prices. PPI ends its decline, but the recovery of PPI depends on demand - side policies [18][19]. - **Liquidity**: The total social financing slightly exceeds expectations, but the structure needs improvement, especially the slow recovery of medium - and long - term credit demand [22]. - **Profit**: The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows, and future profit growth depends on multiple factors [23]. 3.3 Future Economic Outlook - **Overseas**: The US economy shows signs of weakness, which may affect China's exports. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts will impact global liquidity [24]. - **Domestic policy**: A certain policy space will be reserved, and policies focus on long - term structural issues [25]. - **Economy**: The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Investment may continue to explore the bottom, consumption has certain support, and exports remain uncertain [25]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **Equity market**: The foundation for a slow - bull market exists. Investors are advised to focus on high - growth sectors such as self - controllability, energy storage and new energy, service consumption, and sectors benefiting from Fed rate cuts [27]. - **Bond market**: The upward movement is limited, and it is recommended to allocate when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.8% [30]. - **Commodity market**: The differentiation intensifies, and it is recommended to focus on precious metals [31].

Group 1 - Indian exporters are lobbying the central bank to allow them to temporarily exchange earnings from U.S. operations at a rate 15% lower than the current level to mitigate the impact of punitive tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump [1] - The chairman of the Engineering Export Promotion Council of India, Pankaj Chadha, stated that exporters are seeking a dollar-to-rupee exchange rate of around 103 rupees, while the rupee is currently trading close to a historical low of 88.33 rupees per dollar [1] - Chadha mentioned that due to increased tariffs, goods exported to the U.S. are facing approximately 30% losses, and the exporters hope the government can cover at least half of these loss costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the procedures and regulations regarding the issuance of export invoices and the application of export tax refunds, specifically focusing on whether to apply a zero tax rate or an exemption for different types of exported goods [1][2][5]. Group 1: Export Invoice Issuance - Export invoices should be issued with a zero tax rate for goods eligible for export tax refunds that have a non-zero refund rate [1] - For goods with a zero refund rate that are exempt from tax, invoices should be issued as exempt [1] - If the goods have a zero refund rate but are subject to VAT taxation policies, the applicable tax rate should be selected when issuing the invoice [1] Group 2: Handling of Goods with Zero Export Tax Refund Rate - Goods subject to VAT exemption policies include specific items such as contraceptives, old books, software products, and certain jewelry containing precious metals [2] - Goods that fall under VAT taxation policies include those explicitly stated by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation as not eligible for export tax refunds [2][3] Group 3: Export Goods Classification - Export goods may be classified based on their export tax refund status, which can either be marked as "prohibited from export or not eligible for tax refunds" or "exempt" [5] - The classification affects whether the goods are treated as subject to domestic sales tax or exempt from tax [5] Group 4: Export Tax Refund Rate Inquiry - Export enterprises can check the export tax refund rates by logging into the national unified electronic tax bureau and navigating to the public inquiry section [7] Group 5: Currency Exchange Rate for Export Invoices - When issuing export invoices, enterprises must convert sales amounts into RMB using the exchange rate published by the foreign exchange administration on the day of customs export or the first day of the month [8]

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains at a seasonal low, with cement dispatch volumes declining again, indicating weak demand[15] - Industrial production is at a historically high level but has marginally decreased compared to the previous two weeks[24] - Construction demand has turned negative year-on-year, with rebar and building materials demand falling to historical lows[31] Prices - Domestic industrial prices are fluctuating weakly due to limited demand-side support, with the Nanhua Composite Index declining[45] - International commodity prices are volatile, with gold prices showing a strong upward trend amid expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[42] Real Estate - New housing transactions have seen a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a 33% increase in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks[63] - Second-hand housing transactions are showing marginal improvement, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen experiencing year-on-year changes of -3%, +17%, and +19% respectively[68] Exports - August exports are expected to grow by approximately 5% to 7%, with a model indicating a 5.5% increase[71] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with the R007 and DR007 both at 1.52% as of August 31[76] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 13,759 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[78]