Economic Outlook - The global economic growth is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2026, down 2 percentage points from 2024, but remains resilient[2] - Developed economies are projected to grow at 1.6%, with the U.S. experiencing a slowdown and the Eurozone showing weak momentum[2] Interest Rates and Market Sensitivity - The U.S. policy interest rate is anticipated to decline to a range of 3.0%–3.25%, while the Eurozone will maintain around 2.15%[2] - High interest rates combined with high debt levels have intensified the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies, leading to quicker market responses to policy signals[2] Asset Correlation and Investment Strategy - There is an increasing correlation between risk and non-risk assets, with traditional linear assumptions becoming less applicable[2][3] - The shift from asset diversification to path diversification is necessary to enhance portfolio resilience in a chaotic market environment[7][8] Market Dynamics - The relationship between assets is more prone to convergence under disturbances, with reduced inverse relationships between stocks and bonds[7] - Price formation is increasingly influenced by policy changes and market narratives, necessitating a focus on potential price trajectories rather than merely expanding asset classes[8] Future Asset Performance - U.S. long-term yields are expected to fluctuate within a range of 3.9%–4.2%[10] - Emerging markets, particularly India and parts of Latin America, are likely to perform better than developed markets due to structural adjustments and valuation recoveries[10] Gold and Currency Outlook - Gold is expected to maintain a strong position supported by central bank reserve demands and policy uncertainties[10] - The U.S. dollar is projected to remain weak, with the index likely trading between 95 and 100, favoring non-U.S. currencies[10]