Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Historically, the A-share market has a typical calendar effect, with the "Spring Rally" occurring around the end of the year, through the Spring Festival, and until the "Two Sessions." It has rarely been absent, lasting about 40 trading days on average, with the Wind All A Index rising an average of 20% and a median increase of 15%. The rally tends to favor small-cap growth stocks [1][5]. - The core logic behind the "Spring Rally" lies in the performance vacuum period, which creates room for expectation games. Positive policy expectations from the beginning - of - year policy kick - off and the "Two Sessions," seasonal improvement in liquidity, and abundant theme investment opportunities contribute to a positive feedback loop of "fund inflow - price increase - further fund inflow" [1]. - The continuation of the "Spring Rally" requires dynamic attention to core drivers such as policies, liquidity, and risk preferences. Key time points include before the Spring Festival and around the second quarter. The full - year market requires both "valuation + earnings" dual - wheel drive, especially driven by the consensus of earnings repair [2][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Spring Rally" Review - Except for 2022 (unilateral decline) and 2015 (atypical unilateral rise), the "Spring Rally" has occurred in other years since 2010. It usually starts between December and January, with 5 times starting in December, 7 times in January, and 3 times in February. The average duration is about 40 trading days, and the Wind All A Index rises an average of 20% with a median increase of 15%. Small - cap growth stocks are favored in 8 out of 15 rallies [5]. 3.2 "Spring Rally" Driving Factors - The "Spring Rally" is driven by liquidity and policy expectations rather than performance. After the new year, institutional funds replenish positions, and there is a peak in credit issuance. Economic data and corporate earnings are in a vacuum, and policies create a positive atmosphere at the beginning of the year. If the market has adjusted significantly before the rally, the subsequent increase is often higher than average [9]. 3.3 Turning Drivers of the "Spring Rally" - The turning points in the "Spring Rally" are mainly affected by internal and external factors. Internally, a shift in policies, such as a reduction in the intensity of pro - growth policies or actions to cool the stock market, can lead to market adjustments. Externally, overseas economic recessions, geopolitical events, or trade frictions can also impact the domestic market [12][13]. - In early 2019, after the market adjustment in 2018, policies turned to "Six Stabilities" at the end of 2018, leading to a significant "Spring Rally." However, in the second quarter of 2019, the Politburo meeting did not mention "Six Stabilities" and re - emphasized "housing is for living in, not for speculation," and trade frictions reignited, causing the rally to end [14][17]. - In early 2012, after the market decline in 2011, policies shifted at the end of 2011, resulting in a "Spring Rally." The rally ended due to policy tightening, pessimistic economic expectations, and external factors such as the re - emergence of the European debt crisis and the US fiscal cliff issue [19][20]. 3.4 Two - stage Focus for the Current "Spring Rally" - To predict the sustainability or inflection point of the current "Spring Rally," it is necessary to track the realization of positive expectations and key time points. Before the Spring Festival, pay attention to the local "Two Sessions," the confirmation or refutation of easing expectations, and the appointment of the new Fed chair. Around the second quarter, focus on events such as Trump's possible visit to China in April, the Politburo meeting in late April, the verification of real - world demand and macro data during the "Golden March and Silver April," and corporate earnings reports [23][24].