Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing a strong bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for four consecutive months and successfully stabilizing above the 3,800-point mark, reaching a nearly ten-year high [1] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has consistently remained above 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a healthy and steady upward trend in the market [1] Structural Characteristics - The current market rally is characterized by distinct structural features rather than a broad-based increase, with the top three performing indices being the Wind Tail-End Stock Index (+54.82%), the North China 50 Index (+51.75%), and the Sci-Tech Innovation 200 Index (+50.79%) [1] - Small-cap and growth styles have significantly outperformed in this rally, demonstrating strong excess return capabilities [1] Market Drivers - The market's performance is driven by both economic conditions and liquidity, with structural highlights emerging despite overall macroeconomic pressure [3] - Key sectors attracting capital include artificial intelligence, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and solid-state batteries, which are in early development stages and exhibit clear growth narratives [3] Style Rotation - Recent trends indicate a clear rotation in market styles, with a notable increase in fund reallocation intentions [6] - Large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 have shown relative strength, while small-cap indices like the National 2000 and North China 50 have faced pressure, reflecting a "fear of heights" sentiment among some investors [7] Potential Shifts in Leadership - Historical patterns suggest that mid-bull market phases often accompany style switches, with small-cap growth stocks now facing valuation pressures and trading congestion [9] - Large-cap value sectors, particularly in consumer, financial, and manufacturing industries, are expected to emerge as new market leaders due to their low valuations and strong earnings certainty [9] Factors Favoring Large-Cap Value - Large-cap value sectors are likely to benefit from upward revisions in growth expectations, as they are closely tied to macroeconomic conditions [9] - These sectors have experienced significant price corrections, making them attractive investments, especially given their stable operations and high dividend yields [10] Incremental Capital Flows - There is potential for incremental capital to shift styles, with foreign capital gradually increasing its share in Chinese assets, indicating a return of foreign investment [13] - Domestic investors are also expected to favor low-risk equity products, which may lead to a gradual shift towards large-cap value sectors [13] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to focus on absolute returns, with large-cap value sectors offering substantial upside potential and limited downside risk [16] - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation across styles and sectors, particularly in industries with strong earnings resilience and stable dividends, such as food and beverage, agriculture, insurance, brokerage, and steel [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Active equity fund positions have reached the highest level of the year, with continuous increases in the communication industry position. The market's broad - based indices generally rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3700 points. TMT industries performed strongly, while dividend - related industries such as banking and coal were weak. [4][12] - Active equity public funds have been continuously increasing their positions, and the overall position has reached the highest level of the year. Even relatively cautious "fixed - income +" funds have been continuously raising their positions. In terms of style, public funds have focused on the growth sector and shifted towards small - cap stocks. [4][12] - Public funds are optimistic about the communication industry, which has seen the most significant position increase in the past three months. The proportion in the consumer sector has decreased, and the allocation ratio of the food and beverage industry has reached a multi - year low. It is recommended to shift the allocation towards the growth sector. [4][12] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Broad - based Index Performance**: Last week (2025/8/11 - 2025/8/15), A - share broad - based indices generally rose, with the ChiNext Index rising significantly. As of 2025/8/15, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77 points, up about 1.70% week - on - week; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11634.67 points, up about 4.55%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2534.22 points, up about 8.58%; and the CSI 300 closed at 4202.35 points, up about 2.37%. [13] - **Industry Index Performance**: TMT and non - banking industries performed well last week. The top - performing industries in terms of weekly returns were communication, comprehensive finance, non - bank finance, electronics, and computer, with returns of 7.11%, 7.07%, 6.57%, 6.44%, and 6.31% respectively. The bottom - performing industries included banking, steel, textile and apparel, coal, and construction, with returns of - 3.22%, - 2.00%, - 1.36%, - 0.77%, and - 0.59% respectively. [16] 3.2 Public Funds - **Net Value Performance**: The average net value change of active partial - stock funds last week was 3.47%. Among the 4468 funds, 3990 rose, accounting for 89.30%. The top five funds in terms of net value performance were Yongying Digital Economy Smart Selection Hybrid A, SDIC UBS Jinbao Flexible Allocation Hybrid, SDIC UBS Advanced Manufacturing Hybrid, SDIC UBS New Energy Hybrid A, and SDIC UBS Industry Trend Hybrid A, with weekly net value changes of 18.81%, 17.88%, 17.34%, 17.29%, and 17.01% respectively. [4][18] - **Position Calculation**: As of 2025/8/15, the average position of active equity funds was about 89.14%. Among them, the average position of common stock funds was about 91.41% (up 0.86 pct from the previous week), the average position of partial - stock hybrid funds was about 88.93% (up 1.90 pct), the average position of allocation funds was about 88.23% (up 2.61 pct), and the average position of "fixed - income +" funds was about 23.48%, up 0.43 pct from the previous week. [2][22] - **Style Trends**: Recently, public funds have mainly been allocated to the small - cap growth style. As of 2025/8/15, the positions of active partial - stock funds in large - cap growth, large - cap value, mid - cap growth, mid - cap value, small - cap growth, and small - cap value were 27.52% (up 0.19 pct from the previous week), 9.4% (down 0.69 pct), 9.51% (down 0.37 pct), 5.96% (up 0.3 pct), 43% (up 1.06 pct), and 4.62% (down 0.5 pct) respectively. [3][29] - **Industry Trends**: From the perspective of the weighted average of stock - holding market value, the industries with a significant increase in the allocation ratio of active equity funds last week were communication (about 6.19%, up 0.86 pct from the previous week), non - ferrous metals (about 4.31%, up 0.42 pct), petroleum and petrochemicals (about 1.17%, up 0.33 pct), comprehensive (about 0.52%, up 0.30 pct), and real estate (about 1.03%, up 0.24 pct). The industries with a significant decrease were food and beverage (about 3.96%, down 0.62 pct), electronics (about 15.99%, down 0.54 pct), national defense and military industry (about 5.05%, down 0.52 pct), banking (about 3.57%, down 0.43 pct), and textile and apparel (about 1.09%, down 0.32 pct). [4][32] - **ETF Market Tracking**: Last week (2025/8/11 - 2025/8/15), domestic stock ETFs had a net outflow of about 23.799 billion yuan, cross - border ETFs had a net inflow of about 16.335 billion yuan, bond ETFs had a net inflow of about 12.633 billion yuan, and commodity ETFs had a net outflow of about 1.719 billion yuan. [39] - **Newly Established Funds**: This year, 171 active equity funds have been newly issued, with a total scale of about 68.102 billion yuan, about 130.65% of the same period in 2024; 356 passive equity funds have been newly issued, with a total scale of 184.103 billion yuan, about 320.38% of the same period in 2024. [44] 3.3 Main/Active Capital Flows - **Main Capital Flow**: Last week, the main capital flowed into non - bank and electronics sectors and flowed out of national defense and military industry and machinery sectors. [5][56] - **Active Capital Flow**: The net main - buying amount last week was about - 1016.139 billion yuan. Active capital flowed into non - bank and electronics sectors. The industries with the highest net main - buying amounts were non - bank finance, electronics, computer, communication, and non - ferrous metals; the industries with significant outflows were machinery, national defense and military industry, banking, power and public utilities, and medicine. [5][56]

Core Insights - The market experienced fluctuations on August 14, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) showing a significant intraday drop of 2.70% before recovering to a decline of 1.43% by 1:36 PM, while still leading the broad index ETFs with a year-to-date increase of 48.27% [1] - The fund saw a net inflow of over 12 million during the trading session, marking its ninth consecutive day of net inflows, and its total assets have surged by 6828.12% this year, reaching a historic high of over 1.1 billion [1] - Huachuang Securities suggests that if liquidity remains ample, the "water buffalo logic" may strengthen, leading to increased investments in small-cap growth stocks through ETFs and margin trading [1] Market Dynamics - The current market environment is characterized by strong investor interest, as indicated by the substantial net inflows into the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF [1] - The potential for further growth in small-cap stocks is supported by the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the third quarter, which may favor growth styles [1] - However, industry experts caution that despite the positive outlook, the uncertainties in the external environment and the already high short-term gains in small-cap stocks warrant vigilance against potential pullbacks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks are experiencing a resurgence, with the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) rising by 0.4% during trading on August 13, marking a cumulative increase of 50% year-to-date, and reaching a new high for the 40th time this year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with a net inflow exceeding 23 million during the session [1] - The fund's scale has grown by 6463.20% this year, setting a historical record [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic and profit recovery trends are evident, supported by ongoing growth policies that have led to high levels of infrastructure, manufacturing investment, and consumption growth [1] - July exports continued to maintain a high year-on-year growth rate [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if liquidity remains abundant, the "water buffalo logic" may strengthen, leading to increased investment in small-cap growth stocks through ETFs and margin trading [1] - While potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the third quarter may favor growth styles, uncertainties in the external environment and the already high short-term gains in small-cap stocks warrant caution among investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a significant increase in risk appetite, with a notable rise in small-cap growth stocks, supported by a high level of margin financing that has returned to over 2 trillion yuan for the first time since 2015, although its market share has decreased [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices opened higher on August 12, with the Shanghai Composite Index continuing to strengthen after reaching a new high since 2022 [1]. - As of August 11, the margin financing balance has remained above 2 trillion yuan for four consecutive trading days, marking a significant return to this level [1][3]. Group 2: Margin Financing Insights - Despite the high absolute value of margin financing, its proportion of the A-share market's circulating market value is only 2.30%, less than half of the 4.73% seen in April 2015, indicating a healthier leverage structure [3]. - This situation suggests that there may still be marginal incremental capital supporting the market, with leverage levels not yet reaching alarm thresholds [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current market dynamics favor small-cap growth stocks, which are particularly sensitive to changes in liquidity and risk appetite, as evidenced by the performance of the CSI 1000 index, which has risen 16.55% year-to-date compared to the 8.82% increase of the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. - The 1000 ETF Enhanced (159680) has seen a year-to-date net value increase of 25.25%, significantly outperforming its benchmark, with a substantial inflow of 213 million shares over the year [8]. - The strategy of using index enhancement may be beneficial for investors looking to balance their portfolios while capturing both beta and alpha returns in the small-cap sector [10]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The market's increasing heat and the gains across various sectors suggest that a refined approach to portfolio rebalancing may be prudent, particularly through low-cost dollar-cost averaging or phased entry strategies [11].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a significant influx of funds, with small-cap growth stocks leading the performance, and quantitative private equity funds achieving positive returns this year [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Activity - Leverage funds have accelerated entry into the market, with the margin trading balance surpassing 2 trillion yuan for the first time since July 2015 [2]. - In July, the number of new A-share accounts reached 1.96 million, a year-on-year increase of 71% [3]. - The market has been active, with the average daily trading volume in July reaching 16,336 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 22.3% and a year-on-year increase of 149.1% [4]. Group 2: Stock Performance - As of August 11, small-cap growth stocks have shown strong performance, with the micro-cap index rising over 67% year-to-date, while major blue-chip indices have seen gains of less than 5% [5]. - The number of low-priced stocks (below 2 yuan) has significantly decreased, dropping to 37 from over 170 since last September [6]. Group 3: Private Equity Performance - All quantitative private equity funds with over 10 billion yuan in assets have achieved positive returns this year, with an average return of 21.58% from January to July [7]. - The number of quantitative private equity firms has increased to 44, making up nearly half of the 90 billion private equity firms, while subjective private equity firms have decreased to 39 [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current small-cap market may face challenges as it relies heavily on liquidity for growth, and the structural profit growth is not as robust as in 2015 [9]. - There is a concern that the current market frenzy may ultimately lead to negative outcomes for investors who are not aligned with long-term investment principles [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity market closed higher overall, with the CSI 1000 leading the way and the small - cap growth style outperforming. The bond market also trended upward, and the convertible bond market rose [1][2][6]. - Among the industries, non - ferrous metals, machinery, and national defense and military industries led the gains, while pharmaceuticals and consumer services declined [2][6][9]. - Active equity funds had an average return of 1.80%. For bond - type funds, short - term bond funds had an average return of 0.06%, medium - and long - term bond funds had an average return of 0.08%, and convertible bond funds and bond funds with equity exposure achieved positive average returns [1][2]. - This week, there were 3 new stocks listed, and no new stocks broke their issue prices on the first day of listing. The average return of sample new - stock subscription funds was 0.59%, and the new - stock subscription yield of an 800 - million - yuan account was 0.023% [2][37]. - As of August 6, 2025, the average returns of low - risk, medium - risk, and high - risk FOF funds in the sample in the past week were 0.22%, 0.37%, and 0.47% respectively [2]. - During the statistical period, equity - biased QDII and bond - type QDII funds rose by 0.34% and 0.52% on average, while index - type and other - type QDII funds fell by 0.30% and 0.45% on average. REITs funds fell by 0.31% on average this week [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The equity market closed higher overall this week, with the CSI 1000 leading the gains and the small - cap growth style outperforming. As of the close, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4105 points, up 1.23%; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3635 points, up 2.11%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11129 points, up 1.25%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 2334 points, up 0.49%. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.43%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.17% [6]. - In terms of industry performance, non - ferrous metals, machinery, and national defense and military industries led the gains, with increases of over 5%, while pharmaceuticals and consumer services declined [9]. - As of August 8, 2025, among the 5422 stocks in the A - share market, 4041 stocks rose this week. The number of rising stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange, ChiNext, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Main Board were 140, 1035, 421, and 2445 respectively [12]. 3.2 Key Fund Tracking 3.2.1 Active Equity - **Fund Performance**: The average return of the full - market funds in the sample this week was 1.80%. Funds with better performance were heavily invested in industries such as automobiles and machinery. For industry - themed funds, funds in the cyclical and mid - stream manufacturing sectors had leading average returns, while those in the pharmaceutical sector lagged behind [18][20]. - **Position Estimation**: This week, the positions of ordinary stock - type and partial - stock hybrid funds both increased. Compared with the previous week, the position of ordinary stock - type funds rose by 1.06 percentage points, and that of partial - stock hybrid funds rose by 2.19 percentage points. Actively managed partial - stock funds increased their allocations to cyclical, consumer, growth, and financial sectors and reduced their allocations to stable sectors. In terms of sub - industries, the allocations to household appliances, communications, and computers increased, while those to automobiles, electronics, and petroleum and petrochemicals decreased [23]. 3.2.2 Bond - type Funds - **Bond Market Performance**: This week, the bond market trended upward. The ChinaBond Total Wealth Index closed at 246.91, up 0.1% from last week; the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Index closed at 247.9, up 0.13%; and the ChinaBond Credit Bond Index closed at 224.18, up 0.09%. The CSI Non - Pure Bond Fund Index closed at 2229.59 on Thursday, up 0.45% from last Thursday. The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 467.77, with a weekly increase of 2.31%, and the trading volume was 422.4 billion yuan, a change of 36.293 billion yuan from last week [25][27]. - **Fund Performance Overview**: This week, the average return of short - term bond funds was 0.06%, and the median was 0.06%; the average return of medium - and long - term bond funds was 0.08%, and the median was 0.08%. The average return of first - tier bond funds was 0.29%, and the median was 0.16%; the average return of second - tier bond funds was 0.57%, and the median was 0.44%. The average return of partial - bond hybrid funds was 0.62%, and the median was 0.53%; the average return of low - position flexible allocation funds was 0.53%, and the median was 0.38%. The average return of convertible bond funds was 2.59%, and the median was 2.52% [31][33][34][36]. 3.2.3 New - stock Subscription Funds - **New - stock Overview**: This week, 3 new stocks were listed, and 2 had inquiry and offline placement details, with a total raised capital of 1.877 billion yuan. There were no break - even stocks on the first day of listing, and the total expected入围 income was 182,500 yuan [37]. - **New - stock Subscription Yield Calculation**: Assuming participation in the offline new - stock subscription of new stocks every week and being入围, the weekly new - stock subscription yield sequence of an 800 - million - yuan account was calculated based on the winning rate of Class A investors [38]. - **Fund Company New - stock Subscription Overview**: Six fund companies with more than 2 new - stock subscription funds were selected. The weekly new - stock subscription yield of an 800 - million - yuan account this week was 0.023%. The optimal scale for weekly and annual new - stock subscription was 400 million yuan [40]. - **New - stock Subscription Fund Performance**: According to the screening method, 38 new - stock subscription funds were selected. The average return of the new - stock subscription funds in the sample this week was 0.59% [43]. 3.2.4 FOF Funds - The average returns of low - risk, medium - risk, and high - risk FOF funds in the sample in the past week were 0.22%, 0.37%, and 0.47% respectively [44]. 3.2.5 QDII Funds - During the statistical period, equity - biased QDII funds rose by 0.34% on average, and index - type QDII funds fell by 0.30% on average. Other - type QDII funds fell by 0.45% on average, and bond - type QDII funds rose by 0.52% on average [45][46]. 3.2.6 REITs Funds - This week, REITs funds fell by 0.31% on average. Among them, Huatai Zijin Baowan Logistics Warehouse REIT led the gains, rising 4.31% in the past week. Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT had the highest liquidity, with a trading volume of 214.361 million yuan in the past week [47].

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 招商证券表示，在当前经济弱复苏/稳定复苏的环境下，市场风险偏好的变化主导市场节奏。7月政治局 会议强调政策的连续性与稳定性、灵活性和预见性，宏观流动性将继续保持宽松状态。当前9月美联储 降息概率较大，美元指数、美债利率大概率下行，但多因素可能导致预期反复、波动增大。增量资金层 面，当前仍是融资资金+私募基金+产业/主题ETF等活跃资金主导，在其他类型的场外资金明显入市之 前，预计小盘风格仍将延续。 2000ETF（561370）跟踪中证2000指数，该指数选取市值规模较小且流动性较好的2000只证券作为指数 样本，涵盖机械设备、电子、计算机等多个行业，能够有效捕捉小盘股的增长潜力，为投资者提供多样 化的投资选择，可以关注小盘股板块的后续弹性预期。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on the stock market, cautious on bonds, and optimistic on commodities [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the PPI was below expectations while social financing and CPI exceeded expectations, leading to a neutral outlook for the stock market. GDP growth was above expectations, putting pressure on the bond market, while the commodity market outlook remains optimistic [1][2]. - The industry rotation model for August recommends sectors such as comprehensive, comprehensive finance, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, telecommunications, and light industry manufacturing, indicating a shift from real estate and consumer services [4][12]. - The small-cap growth style is expected to continue its dominance, supported by macroeconomic indicators and investor sentiment [5][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - As of the end of July, PPI was below expectations, while social financing and CPI were above expectations, leading to a neutral view on the stock market. GDP growth was consistently above expectations, negatively impacting the bond market [2][4]. Industry Recommendations - The August industry rotation model recommends comprehensive, comprehensive finance, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, telecommunications, and light industry manufacturing, while excluding real estate and consumer services [4][12]. Investment Strategies - The best-performing strategy in July was the new stock strategy, achieving a monthly return of 11.3%, significantly outperforming major small-cap indices [8]. - The growth trend resonance stock selection strategy yielded a return of 7.9%, while the XG Boost growth selection strategy achieved a return of 5.8% [9]. - For August, the report suggests focusing on small-cap combinations and dividend/valued selections, while not recommending growth strategies due to ongoing valuation declines [11][12]. Quantitative Models - The report discusses advancements in quantitative models, particularly deep learning models that have outperformed benchmarks significantly [13][14].

Group 1 - Market sentiment indicators have improved, with the sentiment score rising from -0.9 to -0.25, indicating a shift towards a more bullish outlook [9][13][18] - The increase in industry trading congestion and the positive shift in the PCR combined with the VIX index reflect a recovery in market sentiment [13][18] - The total trading volume in the A-share market has shown a significant increase, with the highest daily trading volume reaching 1,736.61 billion RMB [18][19] Group 2 - The construction materials sector has shown a significant upward trend, with a short-term trend score increase of 21.05% [32][33] - The model indicates that small-cap growth stocks are currently favored, with a strong signal for small-cap stocks and a rapid increase in the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI [32][37] - The sectors with the strongest short-term trends include defense, media, communication, and computer industries [32][33]