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2026年年度策略:“误解”的消费,农业食品中的健康、快乐、划算
AVIC Securities· 2026-01-18 14:55
Core Insights - The report emphasizes the misunderstanding of consumption trends in the agricultural food industry, highlighting three key aspects: "health," "happiness," and "value" [3][5]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - China's final consumption expenditure accounts for approximately 55% of GDP, significantly lower than developed countries like the US, UK, and Japan, which hover around 80% [6][8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China has shown a downward trend since September 2022, with a slight increase in November 2025, reaching a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, still below that of developed economies [6][8]. - The report indicates a shift in consumer behavior towards health-related investments, with a growing focus on proactive health management rather than reactive treatment [17][18]. Group 2: Health Consumption - The health sector is driven by the "Healthy China" strategy, with increasing consumer awareness leading to a rise in health-related products and services [17][79]. - The market for health-related products is expanding across all age groups, with younger consumers becoming a significant force in health consumption [79]. - The report suggests that the health supplement market in China has substantial growth potential compared to developed countries, where penetration rates are higher [79]. Group 3: Happiness Consumption - The report identifies a growing trend in emotional consumption, particularly in the pet economy, where consumers are willing to spend on experiences and emotional satisfaction [80]. - The emotional economy in China is projected to reach approximately 23,077.67 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.5% year-on-year increase [17][80]. - Domestic pet food companies are expected to benefit from the ongoing growth in the pet economy, with a focus on brand marketing and channel development [80]. Group 4: Value Consumption - Chinese consumers are becoming more pragmatic, focusing on value and price rather than brand prestige, with over 55% of consumers comparing prices across platforms before purchasing [18][17]. - The report highlights the importance of promotional activities in attracting consumers to new brands, with nearly half of consumers influenced by significant discounts [18][17]. - The agricultural sector is expected to see a rational adjustment in production capacity, particularly in the pig farming industry, which is under pressure from high supply and seasonal demand fluctuations [65][81]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on health-related companies such as Jin Dawei, Tang Chen Bei Jian, and Kang Bi Te, which have strong brand advantages in the health supplement market [79]. - In the pet food sector, companies like Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong, and Pei Di are highlighted as leaders poised to capitalize on the growing pet economy [80]. - For the pork industry, the report suggests investing in leading companies like Mu Yuan and Wen's, which are expected to maintain profitability and shareholder returns despite market fluctuations [81].