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信用左侧空间已至,静待右侧信号
Huaan Securities· 2025-09-05 07:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the current round of adjustment, credit bonds have certain cost - effectiveness, but the bond market may still be adjusted in the short term, so investors are advised to adopt a defensive strategy. Short - duration bonds have good cost - effectiveness for capital preservation, and for those with yield requirements, short - duration bonds of medium - and low - grade can be further explored, while 3 - year bonds can balance defensive attributes and yield requirements [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Current Situation of Credit Bond Spreads - Since August, affected by the capital market and the adjustment of the equity market, credit bonds have shown a volatile market, and credit spreads have continued to widen. The static yield of credit bonds is at a phased high, and the cost - effectiveness of mining income is gradually increasing. However, due to the end - of - quarter factor and the equity market, the bond market is still difficult to stabilize in the short term [1] Yield Changes of Urban Investment Bonds - As of September 4, for 1 - year AAA - rated urban investment bonds, the yield was 1.70%, up about 3.65bp from the previous low, and the 3 - year yield rose from 1.77% to 1.91%, up about 14.33bp. For 1 - year AA - rated bonds, the yield was up about 3.58bp from the previous low, and the 3 - year AA - rated bonds were up about 19.82bp. Short - end credit bond varieties showed better stability during bond market fluctuations [2] Investment Suggestions for Different Institutions - For institutions with stable liability ends, the cost - effectiveness of medium - and long - term credit bonds is relatively significant, and there is a significant riding income around 3 years. The term spreads of 3 - year and 5 - year bonds of each grade are at a high level this year, so relevant assets can be appropriately allocated if the subsequent valuation fluctuation risk can be borne [2] - For valuation - sensitive institutions with unstable liability ends, short - end varieties have sufficient spread protection. It is recommended to maintain a defensive strategy before the right - side signal appears. Short - end varieties still have good cost - effectiveness in terms of defense [3] Spread Protection Analysis - When calculating the maximum spread increase that each implied - rating bond can accept at the break - even point for a 1 - month holding period, the spread protection of 1 - year varieties is significantly higher than that of other terms. Generally, the spread protection increases slightly as the rating decreases [3] - When calculating with the yield of the same - term China Development Bank bonds as the implied minimum yield requirement, the spread protection difference between terms decreases, while the difference between grades increases [6]