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美容护理行业双周报(2026/3/6-2026/3/19):需求稳增与盈利承压并存,行业分化加剧-20260320
Dongguan Securities· 2026-03-20 08:56
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the beauty care industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The beauty care industry is experiencing a simultaneous increase in demand and pressure on profitability, leading to intensified industry differentiation. Companies are shifting focus from scale expansion to profit orientation, with a structural divergence expected in the short term. However, there is potential for recovery in the medium to long term due to increased concentration among leading companies and product strength [29]. - The retail sales of cosmetics reached 75.3 billion yuan in January-February 2026, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, which outperformed the overall market and reflects a steady growth trend [21][23]. - The overall price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of the beauty care industry is approximately 32.46 times, which is below the valuation mean since 2015, indicating a potential undervaluation [20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW beauty care industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 1.52% from March 6 to March 19, 2026, and ranked fifteenth among SW primary industries [13]. - All secondary segments within the beauty care industry recorded negative returns during the same period, with personal care products, cosmetics, and medical beauty declining by 1.56%, 2.27%, and 2.30%, respectively [14]. - Approximately 29.03% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with Keshihua leading with a 5.62% increase, while Shuiyang shares saw the largest drop at 10.32% [15]. Industry News - The growth of the skincare and beauty business by Ryohin Keikaku (Muji) has doubled its revenue to approximately 100 billion yen, accounting for about 13% of total sales, becoming a significant growth driver [24]. - Intercos, a leading global beauty OEM, reported a 1.7% decline in revenue for 2025, marking its first annual revenue drop since its IPO in 2021, although its adjusted EBITDA increased by 8.8% [25]. Company Announcements - Aimeike reported a revenue of 2.453 billion yuan for 2025, down 18.94% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.291 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.05% [26]. - Juzi Biotechnology achieved a revenue of 5.519 billion yuan for 2025, a slight decline of 0.4%, with a net profit of 1.915 billion yuan, down 7.1% [27]. - Shuiyang shares are nearing conditions for redeeming convertible bonds, reflecting marginal improvements in operations and market expectations [28]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the ongoing structural optimization in the beauty care industry, with a shift from scale expansion to profit quality enhancement. It suggests focusing on leading companies with strong brand and cash flow advantages, such as Huaxi Biological, Wanmei Biological, Beijia Clean, and Shanghai Jahwa, to capture structural opportunities [29][30].