Core Viewpoint - Dollar General (DG.US) unexpectedly raised its full-year sales and profit forecasts, driven by strong demand for discount essential goods amid inflation and tariff pressures [1][2] Company Performance - Dollar General's same-store sales increased by 2.8% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of 2.5% [2] - The adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter were $1.86, significantly higher than the expected $1.57 [2] - The company now expects net sales growth of 4.3% to 4.8% for fiscal year 2026, up from a previous forecast of 3.7% to 4.7% [3] Market Trends - Discount retailers are performing exceptionally well as more consumers focus on saving money, with Dollar General attracting higher-income customers seeking lower-priced products [2][4] - The overall retail sector shows optimism, with major players like Walmart also adjusting their sales forecasts upward [2] Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer spending, with high-income consumers less affected by inflation and continuing to spend on non-essential items, while low-income consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending [4][5] - The demand for essential goods remains strong, with both high and low-income groups prioritizing purchases of food and daily necessities [5]

Supply and Demand - Industrial production remains resilient, with overall industrial operating conditions at historical mid-high levels[1] - Cement shipments are at historical low levels, with construction site funding availability lower than the same period in 2024[1] - Building demand is weak, with rebar and building materials demand below historical levels[2] Prices - International commodity prices have rebounded due to geopolitical conflicts, with oil, copper, aluminum, and gold prices increasing[3] - Domestic industrial products, except for some chemicals and asphalt, show weak performance, indicating slight domestic demand fatigue[3] Real Estate - New housing transactions in first-tier cities have turned negative year-on-year, with a 30% decrease compared to 2023 and a 4% decrease compared to 2024[4] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes show divergence, with Beijing up 12% and Shanghai down 19% compared to 2024[4] Exports - High-frequency export data indicates a rebound in the third week of June, but June exports are expected to decline by around 3% year-on-year[5] Liquidity - Recent liquidity conditions show fluctuating funding rates, with R007 at 1.59% and DR007 at 1.49% as of June 20[4] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 1,082.8 billion yuan in recent weeks[4]